Metro Atlanta in 2020 (predictions)

[click85]

Wha

[click85]

Excuse my naivety but I'm a foreign investor in Atlanta. I read the main topic of conversation in this thread is based on blacks moving into the area. Is this a good or bad thing for Atlanta?

[click85]

Excuse my naivety but the way I'm reading most of the posts in this thread, people are mentioning the migration of blacks into Atlanta. Whats the emphasis in black? Is this good or bad?

[DautoS#1]

I think the fisrt simply because i lived in that city during both the steep up swing of the of economy and polulation of the late 90's and early 2000's, and the downward shift had already begun even prior to my exodus.

The migration of those years was so large that, yes the will have children, and yes, they as well as the parents and the actual native Atlanta contengion, will all be competing for the same jobs resulting in more smog, traffic, and fewer jobs. Awesome real estate prices though.

[Indentured Servant]

I think that the US “growth” economically became more a game of smoke and mirrors, the result of FED activity and the way inflation, unemployment and other metrics are calculated, after our country went off the gold standard. The growth prior to the 70’s was growth based upon equilibrium between domestic production and consumption. Today we are able to consume more than we produce and hence live larger as the result of debt, public, private and consumer debt. Hence, I believe that areas that boomed largely as a result of the “new” economy will largely stagnate in the future, due to the fact that the new economy was essentially a Ponzi scheme. The fate of our economic future is manufacturing…..not a new economy based upon debt and financial markets.


The South prospered at the North expense partly due to Unions. Companies wanted the ability to control their labor cost more and hence the South, with their right to work laws, became more attractive to manufacturers. The south offered a big advantage in labor cost, as well as, other cost of doing business, such as rents, land cost and the like. However, unions are not as strong as they once were and the many Northern states had to become competitive in regards to cost, taxes and the like, in order to maintain and attract businesses….and people. Thus, many of the PUSH factors that led companies to move south are not as strong as they once were and if companies move production these days, it’s often to other countries where they can realize even greater cost savings.


In light of that, I am going to choose the first options. However, I agree that “Natural increase” (births over deaths) will keep Atlanta’s growth respectable. Things run in cycles and I think that the next 20 years will see a resurgence of growth in the Midwest. The Northeast will also grow faster than previous decades. Keep in mind that the Norths pain became the south's gain. Thus, as the pain decreases in the North....the gains will decrease in the South (including Atlanta).

I think the future trend, due to energy constraints, will promote high density areas to support the type of mass transit that can cut down on the use of automobiles. The South is largely low density covering thousands of square miles. Its wasteful to energy to commute over such a large area relative to the population. Lets also not forget the growing issue of WATER and how many areas in the sun belt will not be able to sustain rates of growth because of the rate it depletes their aquifers.

[NashvilleIsLife]

Originally Posted by stars&stripesforever

actually, i see a very slow decade for atlanta.

I see metro atlanta csa possibly rising to 6.1 million, while the msa only gets to about 5.7 million. However, realistically, i think the csa only gets to 6.0 million, while the msa only gets to 5.6 million. All in all, metro atlanta might add 300,000-400,000 this decade, tops, but probably closer to 250,000.

I don't see the hispanic population rising, i really don't. I don't even think the latest statistics have even taken into account the number of illegal mexicans that have gone back to mexico as a result of the economic downturn. I see the hispanic population declining by 30% of their overall population. Anyone can tell a big difference over the past few years as a result of the economic downturn and, perhaps, the new immigration law.

Black migration to atlanta will still occur, but it has slowed considerably over the past few years, just as it has for everyone else. Many blacks that migrated to atlanta from the late 90s to about 2007 did so without a job, as it was seen as the place to be for blacks. Most blacks that will migrate to the area will do so if they have family connections in the area, and if they have a job. I don't see the black population increase of the region being over fifty percent of the overall population increase in the region, much like it was from 2000-2007. In fact, i'd say that it probably drops down to around 30-35% of the overall regional increase, comparable to the black component of the population.

The white population will increase as a percentage of newcomers, but given economic realities, it will pale in raw numbers to previous decades. That said, the white population will hold ground, in my opinion, as a percentage of the region's population, at around 54%.

The actual city of atlanta will probably increase twenty thousand or so, with the white population of the city increasing to forty four percent of the population and the black population decreasing to fifty percent of the population.

wrong

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by cope1989

When we reach the next census in 2020 and census workers begin analyzing the population and demographics of metro Atlanta, what will they find? I see 3 options.

1) After the great recession of the late 2000's and early 2010s metro Atlanta was never able to recover and adapt to the restructured economy. It was no longer a growth magnet in the 2010s and most population increases came from births. Demographic trends continue and whites have declined to 45% of the metro population. (growth +250,000)

2) After the great recession, Metro Atlanta entered a period of stable growth, though not nearly as rapid as in the previous decade. The suburbs expand a bit but a great deal of the growth happens in the urban core. Whites decline to a minority of 46%. The area is still a black mecca and the black population tops well over 2 million. (growth +600,000)

3) Metro Atlanta makes several smart moves and picks up an even greater share of growth than in the previous decade. Suburbs continue to expand while the city of Atlanta becomes whiter. Hispanic, Black and Asian growth continues to accelerate and whites are now 40% of the population. (growth +1,300,000)


Which of these 3 scenarios seems most likely to you? I'd like this thread to be a place where all of us can throw in our predictions about the future of metro Atlanta, in terms of growth, jobs, politics, diversity or whatever.

Just an FYI: Proximity one shows Atlanta growing by about the same number in the next decade as we did in the previous one (a little over 1 million) to a population of 6.3 million in 2020

A bizjournals population estimate shows we'll grow more rapidly, and end up at around 7.3 million by 2025

Haven't found any projections that show very slow growth in Atlanta in the next few years, but it's still a possibility.

(I'll try to get the links up soon)

It looks like a combination of 2) and 3) was ultimately the outcome for Metro Atlanta.

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by Indentured Servant

I think that the US “growth” economically became more a game of smoke and mirrors, the result of FED activity and the way inflation, unemployment and other metrics are calculated, after our country went off the gold standard. The growth prior to the 70’s was growth based upon equilibrium between domestic production and consumption. Today we are able to consume more than we produce and hence live larger as the result of debt, public, private and consumer debt. Hence, I believe that areas that boomed largely as a result of the “new” economy will largely stagnate in the future, due to the fact that the new economy was essentially a Ponzi scheme. The fate of our economic future is manufacturing…..not a new economy based upon debt and financial markets.


The South prospered at the North expense partly due to Unions. Companies wanted the ability to control their labor cost more and hence the South, with their right to work laws, became more attractive to manufacturers. The south offered a big advantage in labor cost, as well as, other cost of doing business, such as rents, land cost and the like. However, unions are not as strong as they once were and the many Northern states had to become competitive in regards to cost, taxes and the like, in order to maintain and attract businesses….and people. Thus, many of the PUSH factors that led companies to move south are not as strong as they once were and if companies move production these days, it’s often to other countries where they can realize even greater cost savings.


In light of that, I am going to choose the first options. However, I agree that “Natural increase” (births over deaths) will keep Atlanta’s growth respectable. Things run in cycles and I think that the next 20 years will see a resurgence of growth in the Midwest. The Northeast will also grow faster than previous decades. Keep in mind that the Norths pain became the south's gain. Thus, as the pain decreases in the North....the gains will decrease in the South (including Atlanta).

I think the future trend, due to energy constraints, will promote high density areas to support the type of mass transit that can cut down on the use of automobiles. The South is largely low density covering thousands of square miles. Its wasteful to energy to commute over such a large area relative to the population. Lets also not forget the growing issue of WATER and how many areas in the sun belt will not be able to sustain rates of growth because of the rate it depletes their aquifers.

^^^Of all of the predictions, this one didn't age as well.

[ShenardL]

Originally Posted by citidata18

^^^Of all of the predictions, this one didn't age as well.

I wonder where all these past forum posters are now?