The Death of the Fringe Suburb (Atlanta, White: renting, new home, safe neighborhoods)
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Meh- I still don't buy the "rising gas prices" thing. For one thing, gas prices still haven't risen anywhere near the levels that the doom-and-gloomers keep prediciting they will- we hear every year about how gas will hit $5/gallon, yet it's still sitting at just over $3/gallon, with no indication that there will be any massive spike any time soon.
Secondly, even if gas does get to $5/gallon at some point, it's going to take a lot more than that to equal the increased cost of living intown. Even with the 35-mile commute that I do from Cherokee County, I only use about 70 gallons of gas/month (at 20 mpg), so a $2/gallon increase in gas costs equates to $140/month. The higher cost of intown real estate and property taxes far outweighs that cost.
I'd predict that it'd take gas hitting something crazy like $10/gallon before it was enough of an issue for many folks to reconsider their current housing choices.
I agree but I do think it has more to do with traffic.
It's probably easy for older people to underestimate how important it is to live in the city for this generation. If I meet someone in their twenties who lives in a random suburb like Kennesaw, I'll assume that they are either married or living with their parents.
Beyond that, according to a report last year by Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, co-authors of the book "Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics,” 43 percent of millennials describe suburbs as their “ideal place to live,” compared with just 31 percent of older generations. It found that 54 percent of millennials live in suburban America, and most of those who do say they want to raise their own families in similar settings.
For me, the point is that even if a larger percentage of Millennials stay in the city than past generations (of white people), there will still be plenty left over -- along with increasing percentages of minorities -- to populate even the outer-ring suburbs in many metros. It won't happen until the economy recovers and household formation restarts, but I do think those abandoned McMansions and empty lots will eventually be filled.
For me, the point is that even if a larger percentage of Millennials stay in the city than past generations (of white people), there will still be plenty left over -- along with increasing percentages of minorities -- to populate even the outer-ring suburbs in many metros. It won't happen until the economy recovers and household formation restarts, but I do think those abandoned McMansions and empty lots will eventually be filled.
Oh I think so too. The article seems to suggest we are going to see the suburbs start to look more urban and creative--the Decatur-ization of the suburbs, so to speak. Basically point 2 in BBC's post. Decatur is the poster child for this, but you can see similar forces at play in places like Marietta and even Chamblee and Hapeville.
Also, the baby boom still has many, many millions of people who are going to be churning about, often without the obligations of families to make their decisions around. I think they could pull us in all sorts of directions: I know of people who went from cookie-cutter suburbs to sharing time between the N Georgia mountains and a Buckhead condo after retirement. They went from plain-suburban to a weird exurban/urban combo! With these sorts of forces at play, the big picture is far from clear right now.
What is happening in America's cities is really quite complicated. A lot moreso that what was going on 30-40 years ago imo.
I remember when I first started looking at houses in around 2006, I asked a realtor how to figure out which areas are going to be good and come up and which ones will struggle. I don't hae that much faith in realtors, but she gave me what I think was excellent advice....
She said to look for communities with something to rally behind. Areas with historic downtown districts are the best, but the area should have something.
I think that was very wise. I mean, there are areas like Johns Creek that don't have anything much to rally around, but they have so much wealth they don't have to worry about the area going downhill anytime soon. When people talk about towns like Suwanee, Duluth, Norcross, and Roswell, they always comment on how much they love the downtowns. I think having a community center is key, some place that the residents can call their own and support. That's why smart communities are revitalizing these areas and in some cases, inventing them from scratch.
Think about it. If I was married and had kids but wanted to go out at night, I could go to a cozy pub or restaurant in my little town center. OR, I could go to midtown and have to have a reservation, pay to park, overpay for my food, etc.
Personally, I think Atlanta is developing into a little Los Angeles. Nobody calls Hermosa Beach, Malibu, or Hollywood suburbs of LA. They are neighboring towns and areas that each have their own personalities and feels. Together they make up the greater Los Angeles area, but they have their own identities. Pretty soon, going to eat in Roswell or Dulth is going to be like going to visit Santa Monica is to an Angelino. They don't consider it "going to another strip mall-laden suburb." No, it's just going to Santa Monica.
And that area can be huge. I never heard an Angelino say, "wow, he lives far away in a horrible suburb that no self-respecting hipster like me would ever consider!" No, they just say, "I'm going to Long Beach" or "I'm going to Costa Mesa."
Don't worry, the suburb hate will die as soon as our Decatur-ization (love the word, I'm going to steal it!) happens. Eddie Owen already took his concentration out of Decatur and is concentrating on Duluth, expect to see that trend continue.
And as more young people move into less expensive intown neighborhoods (Kirkwood, Cabbagetown, etc.), you're going to see those neighborhoods become safer and have better schools, just as we saw happen with Candler Park.
I moved to Kirkwood and love the ability to walk to Edgewood Retail District or to parks. The city offers the ability to walk to activity centers easier than the suburbs. My wife and I have decided to live in-town and have kids. We want to live better lives and not have to drive our car all the time. The schools in Kirkwood are much improving and will continue. I do want a large 4 bedroom house, I believe that a 3 bedroom house is enough room for 4 people and if I don't have enough room, then I have too much crap.
I remember when I first started looking at houses in around 2006, I asked a realtor how to figure out which areas are going to be good and come up and which ones will struggle. I don't hae that much faith in realtors, but she gave me what I think was excellent advice....
She said to look for communities with something to rally behind. Areas with historic downtown districts are the best, but the area should have something.
I think that was very wise. I mean, there are areas like Johns Creek that don't have anything much to rally around, but they have so much wealth they don't have to worry about the area going downhill anytime soon. When people talk about towns like Suwanee, Duluth, Norcross, and Roswell, they always comment on how much they love the downtowns. I think having a community center is key, some place that the residents can call their own and support. That's why smart communities are revitalizing these areas and in some cases, inventing them from scratch.
Think about it. If I was married and had kids but wanted to go out at night, I could go to a cozy pub or restaurant in my little town center. OR, I could go to midtown and have to have a reservation, pay to park, overpay for my food, etc.
Personally, I think Atlanta is developing into a little Los Angeles. Nobody calls Hermosa Beach, Malibu, or Hollywood suburbs of LA. They are neighboring towns and areas that each have their own personalities and feels. Together they make up the greater Los Angeles area, but they have their own identities. Pretty soon, going to eat in Roswell or Dulth is going to be like going to visit Santa Monica is to an Angelino. They don't consider it "going to another strip mall-laden suburb." No, it's just going to Santa Monica.
And that area can be huge. I never heard an Angelino say, "wow, he lives far away in a horrible suburb that no self-respecting hipster like me would ever consider!" No, they just say, "I'm going to Long Beach" or "I'm going to Costa Mesa."
Don't worry, the suburb hate will die as soon as our Decatur-ization (love the word, I'm going to steal it!) happens. Eddie Owen already took his concentration out of Decatur and is concentrating on Duluth, expect to see that trend continue.
Think about it. If I was married and had kids but wanted to go out at night, I could go to a cozy pub or restaurant in my little town center. OR, I could go to midtown and have to have a reservation, pay to park, overpay for my food, etc.
OR the wife and I could drive five minutes or less to Applebee's -- sit down or take-out parking, depending on the babysitter situation. It may not work for you -- and I'm a fortysomething DINK who lives in Midtown -- but it's a lifestyle that's very appealing for the vast majority of the middle class. I don't see any radical changes on the near horizon.
well the flaw of this viewpoint is that the fringe suburb has never been the priciest place to live or the most desirable location (even in Atlanta).
The fringe suburb is where you can get the most house/yard for a typical middle class/upper middle class family. The best bang for the buck, because the land is so cheap.
The reason I mention this is we have to look for the connections of who lives where... and how well those people are fairing with our current employment/wage problems.
Value isn't declining because desirability is declining. Value is declining, because the amount of money people in this demographic (or the amount of people in this demographic) has declined.
Inversely, the inner ring suburbs are in too short supply. They are often too expensive. Anyway you look at it we will never all be able to live in inner-ring suburbs. We have some opportunities for pockets of urban building (beltline-industrial tracts, for example).
The only way I see the far off suburbs declining in the long-run (not short-run) is if a) -familiies-make a bigger move towards urban living much more often or b) more people leave the large cities either to make smaller cities larger or live a more rural lifestyle. I do believe to extent some people are attracted to cities like Charlotte, because you have the advantages of a large city (jobs), but you don't have as many problems. ie... one of or inner suburbs is close to being their fringe suburbs.
My wife and I have decided to live in-town and have kids. We want to live better lives and not have to drive our car all the time. The schools in Kirkwood are much improving and will continue. I do want a large 4 bedroom house, I believe that a 3 bedroom house is enough room for 4 people and if I don't have enough room, then I have too much crap.
I think that's a perfectly fine decision to make, and this really works for a lot of people. And I'm not saying this is going to happen to you, but I think a lot of people are entering situations like this with the same thought. However, I think reality is going to set in for many of them and they are going to ultimately decide that they need a bigger house and they aren't doing the in-towny things much anyway, so the premium to live near them is no longer worth the price.
I think about my sister, who was dead-set against buying into the hype and getting an SUV. Like a lot of people, she couldn't stand the idea of another gas guzzling SUV chugging down the street. BUT, when her kids got a little older, she broke down and got an SUV. She didn't want one, but she told me that it just makes life so much easier for hauling around the kids, their friends, and all the crap they have to take with them when they go places. And she was way too cool to get a minivan or station wagon, so SUV was the only logical choice.
So for a lot of people, suburbs are SUVs. Sure, some people get by hauling their kids around in Accords, but a large percentage ultimately end up needing something bigger and more utilitarian.
A lot of people don't realize how much having children changes things. I don't happen to have kids, but I bought a house in the suburbs anyway because I knew that I might have them some day and I didn't want to have to unload property any time in the next 10 years. I also didn't have enough money for a new infill house, and I don't have the time, money, or know-how to deal with an older house that needs a lot of repair work.
There are a lot of people like me. Their budgets limit them to a Novare style "shoebox in the sky" type of condo intown, an old house that needs tons of attention, something in a neighborhood that is still sketchy, OR a recently built house in a safe area for a reasonable price out in the suburbs. I'm not sure who is buying all the 1 bedroom condos in midtown and Buckhead, but they're all going to be very sorry some day unless they never get married or are lucky enough to be on the rental lists in their buildings.
So for a lot of people, suburbs are SUVs. Sure, some people get by hauling their kids around in Accords, but a large percentage ultimately end up needing something bigger and more utilitarian.
I keep seeing this word..."need"...pop up in this thread when "want" is the word that should be used.
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