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Old 07-01-2012, 03:15 PM
 
7,757 posts, read 9,642,454 times
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It's going to be a critical time for both the urban areas as well as the suburbs.

As more people want to move into the urban core, you will probably see a decline in some of the negative activity. For example, a lot of urban pioneers just accept the occasional crackhead and panhandler as part of the urban experience, but you'll probably see less of that as more people who don't want to put up with it come in. Of course, that means these people will relocate to other areas of the city where residents don't have the political will to keep them out, so I see some areas getting better, but it will necessarily come at the expense of other areas, wherever the crackheads and panhandlers end up.

Suburbs will have a similar challenge. If growth slows down, you will see the areas that have planned wisely and kept up with what people want continue to fluorish. But suburbs that never offered anything beyond cheap housing are giong to see some rough days. So if you live in an area that never heavily invested in a downtown area or attracted prime shopping destinations, etc., you may be living in the ghetto of tomorrow. I don't think Suwanee, Johns Creek, etc. have anything to worry about. I don't see good days in the futures of Doraville, Clarkston, or Smyrna.

It's all just speculation. Who knows? This all takes a great deal of time to happen, and in 20 years, the desires of people could be completely different. Atlanta may be even bigger and spread out further, or the mass exodus that I've always predicted may occur and the far flung areas are giong to be cast back into rural areas and the population is going to shrink considerably.
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Old 07-01-2012, 04:27 PM
 
1,250 posts, read 1,496,078 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
It's going to be a critical time for both the urban areas as well as the suburbs.

As more people want to move into the urban core, you will probably see a decline in some of the negative activity. For example, a lot of urban pioneers just accept the occasional crackhead and panhandler as part of the urban experience, but you'll probably see less of that as more people who don't want to put up with it come in. Of course, that means these people will relocate to other areas of the city where residents don't have the political will to keep them out, so I see some areas getting better, but it will necessarily come at the expense of other areas, wherever the crackheads and panhandlers end up.

Suburbs will have a similar challenge. If growth slows down, you will see the areas that have planned wisely and kept up with what people want continue to fluorish. But suburbs that never offered anything beyond cheap housing are giong to see some rough days. So if you live in an area that never heavily invested in a downtown area or attracted prime shopping destinations, etc., you may be living in the ghetto of tomorrow. I don't think Suwanee, Johns Creek, etc. have anything to worry about. I don't see good days in the futures of Doraville, Clarkston, or Smyrna.

It's all just speculation. Who knows? This all takes a great deal of time to happen, and in 20 years, the desires of people could be completely different. Atlanta may be even bigger and spread out further, or the mass exodus that I've always predicted may occur and the far flung areas are giong to be cast back into rural areas and the population is going to shrink considerably.

I get what you are saying but I think you are picking on the wrong burbs.

Doraville is ITP, has Marta, and touches Dunwoody so they share a lot of the same amenities by proximity.

Clarksville is very close to Decatur, ITP and may see a rail expansion.

You want places likely to doom? Try , Dacula, Logansville, Gainesville, Douglasville/Powder Springs, Stockbrige, Griffin, McDonough, etc.
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Old 07-01-2012, 04:43 PM
 
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Fair enough.

I'm not steadfast in which burbs are going to have rough times, just that some are going to have much harder times than others.

And I see Suwanee, Johns Creek, and Alpharetta as fairly safe.

I'm a little more concerned about my own town of Duluth. I live very close to Johns Creek, so I have faith in my particular part of town, but the city limits include some sketchier areas. The city has worked very hard on the downtown, and while beautiful, it is far from vibrant with thriving businesses yet. So I think it could ultimately really go either way. Especially when more people start figuring out that the nicest parts of what was once considered Duluth are now actually Johns Creek and/or unincorporated Forsyth county. I always try to remind people that Gwinnett Place is not actually part of Duluth. But I do worry overall about the future of Duluth.
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Old 07-01-2012, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
1,410 posts, read 4,252,003 times
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Originally Posted by Onthemove2014 View Post
You want places likely to doom? Try , Dacula, Logansville, Gainesville, Douglasville/Powder Springs, Stockbrige, Griffin, McDonough, etc.
Gainesville in many ways is its own entity with unique job markets, such as the poultry industry. It is also a regional healthcare center for a large number of counties in north GA, and has emerged as a retirement hot spot due to proximity to the mountains and lake. Gainesville has its share of challenges but I think it will be just fine.
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Old 07-01-2012, 08:07 PM
 
Location: Kirkwood
22,375 posts, read 16,401,424 times
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Originally Posted by Onthemove2014 View Post
I get what you are saying but I think you are picking on the wrong burbs.

Doraville is ITP, has Marta, and touches Dunwoody so they share a lot of the same amenities by proximity.

Clarksville is very close to Decatur, ITP and may see a rail expansion.

You want places likely to doom? Try , Dacula, Logansville, Gainesville, Douglasville/Powder Springs, Stockbrige, Griffin, McDonough, etc.
Wouldn't consider gainesville part of metro Atlanta. But the othere areas you mentioned I agree with you. What about acworth, woodstock and humming?
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Old 07-01-2012, 08:31 PM
 
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Originally Posted by cqholt View Post
Wouldn't consider gainesville part of metro Atlanta. But the othere areas you mentioned I agree with you. What about acworth, woodstock and humming?
Hall County is in Atlanta's metro. Thus Gainesville is too.
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Old 07-01-2012, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,462 posts, read 7,331,773 times
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Originally Posted by Onthemove2014 View Post
Hall County is in Atlanta's metro. Thus Gainesville is too.
Hall County is not apart of Metro Atlanta. Gainesville is its own metropolitan area.

Metro Gainesville is apart of the Atlanta-Gainesville -CSA-

It will be interesting to watch how things change over the next couple of decades as Southern Hall Co. is mostly a suburb of Gwinnett, but Gainesville is still the dominant economic influence of Hall Co.
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Old 07-01-2012, 10:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
Hall County is not apart of Metro Atlanta. Gainesville is its own metropolitan area.

Metro Gainesville is apart of the Atlanta-Gainesville -CSA-

It will be interesting to watch how things change over the next couple of decades as Southern Hall Co. is mostly a suburb of Gwinnett, but Gainesville is still the dominant economic influence of Hall Co.
Atlanta metropolitan area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hall county is in Atlanta's metro.
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Old 07-01-2012, 10:21 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,462 posts, read 7,331,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
It's going to be a critical time for both the urban areas as well as the suburbs.

As more people want to move into the urban core, you will probably see a decline in some of the negative activity. For example, a lot of urban pioneers just accept the occasional crackhead and panhandler as part of the urban experience, but you'll probably see less of that as more people who don't want to put up with it come in. Of course, that means these people will relocate to other areas of the city where residents don't have the political will to keep them out, so I see some areas getting better, but it will necessarily come at the expense of other areas, wherever the crackheads and panhandlers end up.

Suburbs will have a similar challenge. If growth slows down, you will see the areas that have planned wisely and kept up with what people want continue to fluorish. But suburbs that never offered anything beyond cheap housing are giong to see some rough days. So if you live in an area that never heavily invested in a downtown area or attracted prime shopping destinations, etc., you may be living in the ghetto of tomorrow. I don't think Suwanee, Johns Creek, etc. have anything to worry about. I don't see good days in the futures of Doraville, Clarkston, or Smyrna.

It's all just speculation. Who knows? This all takes a great deal of time to happen, and in 20 years, the desires of people could be completely different. Atlanta may be even bigger and spread out further, or the mass exodus that I've always predicted may occur and the far flung areas are giong to be cast back into rural areas and the population is going to shrink considerably.

I somewhat disagree... not necessarily in spirit, but I think the situation is more complicated and a few other variables might cause different results in different places.

I think it depends on the housing stock and what price points it attracts. I think it depends on proximity to jobs closer to home (not just going downtown/midtown).

I also think it depends on the schools.

The northside suburbs are doing well, because as traffic congestion increases there are still higher paying jobs locally. There are alot of offices that dot that suburban landscape. As people in suburbs have a harder time getting downtown, I think what will define that suburb is whatever they can get to.

I think Norcross and Duluth are always destined to by bi-polar. They are both a mixture of nice homes in great locations near the Chattahoochee with immediate access to jobs, but then closer to the mall/highway you have tons of older apartments and -cheap- townhomes. Duluth's only hope it to redevelop the Mall area with less retail and more high-end jobs and condos. A smaller edge city scenario. This isn't far-fetched either. I just think we are decade or two away. It would do this area very well to install a new on-off ramps to a local road other than Pleasant hill just for 316 commuteres... and a half diamond interchange further north of pleasant hill for I-85 commuters. It will make it much easier for more people to access the area and filter onto multiple streets, rather than just one or two. (In many ways this is what the Perimeter CID has been doing)

Clarkston, given my concerns listed above, is always going to have a problem. It is a very small city (area) and they are mostly zoned for apartments during the 70s-80s era. A city with aging apartments isn't going to fetch alot of wealth and alot of people would be fearful of redeveloping parts of the area with all the other old apartments still there. There might be a day where the location becomes desirable, but it will take longer. I would imagine the single family housing areas south and out to Stone Mountain would get better first.

Dacula...

has a few things going for it...long-term: 1) decent schools 2) Gwinnett is trying to preserve land and create rural- estate zoning 3) Good access to the 316 technology corridor. It is only partially developed and is leaving much to be desired, but it has attracted sites like the Cisco Campus. It is kind of hidden away behind trees, but it is pretty big! and has good jobs. 4) with the Sugarloaf pkwy freeway extension to the Mall of Georgia and south of Lawarencville, I think it will see increased attention in the long-run. People will be able to commute to different places along the I-85 corridor pretty easily. I'm more concerned about Loganville and the areas further south. They are too far away from the Gwinnett job base, which is mostly along I-85 and Peachtree industrial & Pkwy.


Doraville is positioned for a future comeback. It has industrial property that can become a large redevelopment tract and it can get easy support locally and regionally for rezoning. I see the neighborhoods going northeast from Buckhead slowly getting nicer over time, even Chamblee's neighborhoods north of Peachtree Industrial have been getting increased attention and more higher value infill development. Chamblee is developing a lofts district near the Chamblee MARTA station. It is easy access to Perimeter Center, Buckhead, and Peachtree Corners.. a huge amount of office space altogether.
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Old 07-01-2012, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,462 posts, read 7,331,773 times
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Originally Posted by Onthemove2014 View Post


Really?


Look at the little white map with the red high lighted counties on that very page you sent me.... notice Hall Co. is not shaded.



Also note where is says "The above-listed counties are included in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville CSA" directly below the list of counties.

Also, go to Hall counties page Hall County, Georgia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Where it says, "It is included in the Gainesville, Georgia, Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is also part of the greater Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Gainesville, Georgia-Alabama Combined Statistical Area."

You can find all of the same details on the Census website. They have not released the new MSA boundaries for 2010 yet. I don't expect Hall county to turn quite yet.
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