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Old 06-29-2012, 01:30 PM
 
906 posts, read 1,440,900 times
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According to the Wall Street Journal, Atlanta and many other cities are seeing the core of the metro grow faster than the suburbs--at least comparing 2011 to 2010. This is unusual, as for most of the last century, suburban population growth has been brisker than the pace of urban growth. Here's the chart that shows the numbers:

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0627183903.jpg

But the accompanying article wonders whether or not this is the start of a new trend:

Cities Outpace Suburbs in Growth - WSJ.com

Is our culture starting to shift here? Are people starting to prefer urban living over suburban living in higher numbers? Or is this just fallout from the recent recession? More and more renters are "staying put" in cities, either because they're skittish about buying a suburban house, or because they're not as financially able to qualify as buyers as they would have been 10 years ago.

I tend to think there has to be somewhat of a change in cultural tastes, as people could certainly choose to rent in the suburbs rather than rent in the city.

What do y'all think?
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Old 06-29-2012, 01:40 PM
 
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I think it's a little of both. By and large, families with school-age children are still choosing the 'burbs for affordable housing and good public schools, although this recovery from the recession is stunting that growth a bit on a few fronts. However, the core cities are starting to see more young professionals, DINK's, and empty nesters flow in. But for those who would take this to mean that the suburbs are on their last leg, think again. They aren't going anywhere.
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Old 06-29-2012, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Kirkwood
22,147 posts, read 16,152,860 times
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Quote:
However, the core cities are starting to see more young professionals, DINK's, and empty nesters flow in. But for those who would take this to mean that the suburbs are on their last leg, think again. They aren't going anywhere.
Young families are also moving to Atlanta as the schools improve. This isn't the end of suburbs, but the explosive growth of subdivisions is over.
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Old 06-29-2012, 01:58 PM
 
28,113 posts, read 24,646,505 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by K-SawDude View Post
What do y'all think?
Here's my guess.

Demographics are critical.

The baby boomers will age out during the next 20-25 years. A lot of them will not need or be able to support large homes. Some will go to planned retirement communities but a significant number will look for a more compact location with easy access to shopping, transit and medical care.

Gen Xers will be hitting their earning peak and raising families, so the suburbs will remain strong. However, not all of them will move into the housing being vacated be aging boomers. A goodly number will opt for housing close to where they work (be that intown or suburban) and many will want communities where they don't have to drive everywhere. That doesn't necessarily mean "back to the city" -- most of the jobs are suburban, and many suburban communities will flourish and develop sophisticated town centers.

I'm going to take a stab and guess that Gen Y's migration will be similar to Gen X. It may have a slightly more urban slant.

Millenials? I'm too far removed to really know. They will be living in a much more diverse world. Areas like Atlanta and the rest of the south will likely see their strongest growth in the Hispanic population, with Asians a strong second. I can see metro Atlanta looking a lot more like Gwinnett County does today.

In my opinion, central cities will also gain their second wind. They suffered mightily during the Great Decentralization of the second half of the 20th century, but the smart ones kept their heads down and should come out stronger than ever. Atlanta is a good example. New water and sewer system. A fairly good road infrastructure. Strong and improving transit capabilities. A youthful and energetic population that is actively regenerating old neighborhoods and regaining confidence in the public schools. A vibrant urban core from downtown to Buckhead (and almost to Perimeter). The airport, a strong arts community, more parks. Less poverty.

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Old 06-29-2012, 03:14 PM
 
9,124 posts, read 32,102,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by K-SawDude View Post

What do y'all think?
I think you're going to continue to see growth in the urban areas, but the suburbs are also going to pick up from the pace that's been seen there the past few years. It won't ever get back to the crazy levels of the early 2000's, but it's on the increase already.

There are numerous subdivisions that I've been passing in Cobb, Cherokee and North Fulton that saw absolutely zero activity in 2009 and 2010 started back up last year, and are in full swing again this year. There are even some new projects starting up on previously untouched parcels that have fired up this year. I'd expect this year's numbers to be much better than 2011 in the burbs, and intown will likely see increases as well. Will intown continue to outpace the burbs? Too early to say.
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Old 06-29-2012, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,319 posts, read 21,896,261 times
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I suspect most people don't see the situation as "urban living versus suburban living", but view it more it more as a question of "which city and/or county to I want to live in?", or "where can I find affordable housing close to the resources I want to use?".

In our case, the resources we were interested in were mainly (1) our workplaces and (2) certain restaurants we had become fond of, so that limited us to a certain area of the metro. The rest of the decision came down to simple cost comparisons. Location in terms of east/west/north/south or ITP/OTP didn't matter as much as property tax rates, utility costs, and specific aspects of the properties we were evaluating.
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Old 06-29-2012, 04:42 PM
 
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Many places (if not most) inside the perimeter are essentially suburban, so I don't think it is an "urban" versus "suburban" thing, unless you define urban in an unusual way.
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Old 06-29-2012, 11:43 PM
 
1,250 posts, read 1,487,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Here's my guess.

Demographics are critical.

The baby boomers will age out during the next 20-25 years. A lot of them will not need or be able to support large homes. Some will go to planned retirement communities but a significant number will look for a more compact location with easy access to shopping, transit and medical care.

Gen Xers will be hitting their earning peak and raising families, so the suburbs will remain strong. However, not all of them will move into the housing being vacated be aging boomers. A goodly number will opt for housing close to where they work (be that intown or suburban) and many will want communities where they don't have to drive everywhere. That doesn't necessarily mean "back to the city" -- most of the jobs are suburban, and many suburban communities will flourish and develop sophisticated town centers.

I'm going to take a stab and guess that Gen Y's migration will be similar to Gen X. It may have a slightly more urban slant.

Millenials? I'm too far removed to really know. They will be living in a much more diverse world. Areas like Atlanta and the rest of the south will likely see their strongest growth in the Hispanic population, with Asians a strong second. I can see metro Atlanta looking a lot more like Gwinnett County does today.

In my opinion, central cities will also gain their second wind. They suffered mightily during the Great Decentralization of the second half of the 20th century, but the smart ones kept their heads down and should come out stronger than ever. Atlanta is a good example. New water and sewer system. A fairly good road infrastructure. Strong and improving transit capabilities. A youthful and energetic population that is actively regenerating old neighborhoods and regaining confidence in the public schools. A vibrant urban core from downtown to Buckhead (and almost to Perimeter). The airport, a strong arts community, more parks. Less poverty.

Millenials= Gen Y
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Old 06-29-2012, 11:59 PM
 
1,250 posts, read 1,487,365 times
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Hardly anyone is buying homes so this is to be determined.
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Old 07-01-2012, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Kirkwood
22,147 posts, read 16,152,860 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onthemove2014 View Post
Hardly anyone is buying homes so this is to be determined.
Dude your crazy. I've seen 10 homes bought since January in the 5 blocks around me.
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