New Census data on Fayette County may shock you ... (Atlanta: apartment, rental)

[Newsboy]

... if you know nothing about Fayette County, that is!

That the affluent South Metro county has seen a shift in demographics over the past decade is NOT news. Indeed, compared to much of Metro Atlanta, it's rather insignificant. From 2000 to 2011, the percentage of WHITE residents declined from 84 to an estimated 72.9, while the percentage of minority residents (including persons of Hispanic origin who identify as white) more than doubled, to 33.8 percent. Total county population during the decade only increased by about 15,000 people, or roughly 16 percent -- paltry compared to the huge changes seen in some other parts of the metro.

What IS significantly unique about Fayette County is the rapid increase in the average age of the resident population, as reflected in a SURGE in persons 65 and over, and subsequent sharp decline of the school-age population -- unprecedented in Metro Atlanta I believe!

The Fayette County school district -- which recently reported the highest CRCT scores in the state BTW -- is nonetheless in crisis mode over a loss of more than 2,000 students -- roughly 10 percent of its enrollment -- since 2007. The steady drop in school-age children (and revenue) isn’t likely to reverse itself before 2020. As many as 5 schools, some of them brand new, may be closed in the next year. Meanwhile, Gwinnett, Henry and Forsyth can’t seem to build them fast enough, it seems!

According to the latest 2011 Census estimates, as reported in today's Fayette Citizen:

— Just 25 percent of Fayette residents are under age 18, down from 29 percent in 2000
— Just 36.3 percent of Fayette households have school-age children, down from 43.1 percent in 2000
— Some 13.9 percent of county residents are age 65 and over, up from 8.9 percent in 2000
— The median age of country residents is now 43.3 years, up from 38.3 years in 2000

Further, the Atlanta Regional Commission projects that Fayette’s senior population will increase by 450 percent by 2040!

The full Fayette Citizen article can be read here:
Census: Fayette getting grayer, numbers of households with kids drops | The Citizen

To casual observers of Metro Atlanta growth and development, Fayette County (and Peachtree City especially) has always been a curious oddity -- a strange anomaly on the southside. While the recession no doubt accelerated the trend toward an older population of retirees and empty nesters, it was always in the cards. Those of us with deep roots in the community know it's just one more fascinating chapter in the metamorphosis of a place that has ALWAYS been different from the rest of Metro Atlanta.

Modern Fayette County was never meant to be a place where young families -- or anybody of meager means -- could afford to live. Back in the 1960s, when the population was barely 8,000, most roads still dirt and Peachtree City a pipe dream, county leaders adopted one of the first -- AND TOUGHEST -- zoning and land use plans in the South. Multi-family and rental properties are practically non-existent. Peachtree City is the only place where large-scale apartment communities can be found. Even then, more than 85 percent of residents OWN their own homes; fewer than 9 percent rent.

Early county leaders also managed to build a water system with huge capacity (they sell the excess to other municipalities), but without a sewer system to get rid of the waste. The intention: All homes built in unincorporated areas must be on septic, which requires a 2-acre lot minimum even in subdivisions. The further out you go, it rises to 5 acres, then 10. The steadily rising cost of raw land to developers -- about $100,000 an acre prior to the recession -- meant nothing but estate homes, gated country club developments and horse farms were being built by last decade. Newly married couples just starting out don't buy those kinds of homes; families with kids already in their teens (or already off at college) do!

As a result, the Fayette County school system for years enrolled more kids in middle and high schools than in the elementary grades. It wasn't uncommon for the size of high school graduating classes to GROW between 9th and 12th grades as families with older kids moved in to take advantage of the excellent high schools. The drop-out rate remains practically nonexistent.

Until the recession, there was always enough new development -- and new families -- to compensate for those whose kids graduated or may have moved away. Thing is, very few people leave Fayette County unless for job transfer reasons. The old saying among Delta employees was, once they move you to Peachtree City, you're done for life. The decline in school enrollment is mostly attributed to the ZERO population growth among families with middle and high school kids, since the elementary grades haven't been as effected. People who might have moved away or planned to retire somewhere else have been forced to stay put due to the housing collapse. What's more, the little new construction that has gone on over the past few years has mostly been marketed at seniors: 55-plus communities, garden homes, assisted living centers, etc. One of the biggest draws for folks in that age group is easy access to an excellent medical community (Piedmont Fayette Hospital) as well as the "resort-style" amenities of Peachtree City, etc.

Again, I don't think there's any place in Metro Atlanta quite as unique and "different" as Fayette County. But I'm a little biased.

[cqholt]

Do doctors make house calls in golf carts for the old people?

[belleislerunner]

One thing to keep in mind is the baby boomer generation just approached 65 in 2010. So I would expect everywhere to see an uptick in the 2010 census and even more in the 2020 census of the folks previously in the 45-55 census as of 2000 to be in the 65+ bucket this time around. Natural matriculation - then 20 years from now - you'll see a sizable drop.

This doesn't explain the lack of children - that part is interesting, as you report.

[Newsboy]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Do doctors make house calls in golf carts for the old people?

Good question CQ! The PTC golf cart police (yes) recently busted a ring of teen-age bandits that were terrorizing and robbing people on the golf cart paths. Really.

I think I've seen golf cart rescue vehicles. Max speed: 14 mph

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by Newsboy

What IS significantly unique about Fayette County is the rapid increase in the average age of the resident population, as reflected in a SURGE in persons 65 and over, and subsequent sharp decline of the school-age population -- unprecedented in Metro Atlanta I believe!

There are going to be a lot of people in Fayette County yelling, "Stay off my lawn!"

[cqholt]

Fayette County hasn't done enough to attract young, professional, families to the county. Homes aren't affordable for young families, there is no sewer system it seems, and high paying jobs are a long commute away. I think if Commuter Rail was to have a stations in Fayette County, it would help the area out.

[RoslynHolcomb]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Fayette County hasn't done enough to attract young, professional, families to the county. Homes aren't affordable for young families, there is no sewer system it seems, and high paying jobs are a long commute away. I think if Commuter Rail was to have a stations in Fayette County, it would help the area out.

Uh, did you read the article? It would appear that the citizens of Fayette county like things just the way they are. They planned it that way! They want old rich people, not young couples just starting out. Somehow I don't think commuter rail is part of their plan.

[aries4118]

Before people start getting all sensational with this, the article does not mean Fayette County is lacking children or is not family-friendly. Fayette is still (and will remain) an excellent place for a Metro Atlanta family to live and relocate--it is just one of the more expensive locales (and that is OK). Peachtree City, Tyrone, Fayetteville Proper, Starr's Mill, South Fayetteville/Whitewater, and North Fayette all remain dynamic areas to raise a family--or retire.

The article is about a slight trend. It is not an "either or" scenario. The trend just reveals that Fayette has to slightly re-think its school-building/closing and school revenue policies.

I think Fayette County's development/planning scenario+strategy suits it well--and is actually a good thing for the South Metro. The only thing I would implement is a commuter rail line in the Tyrone/Peachtree City corridor that connects to the Airport and Downtown. Also--down the road--a rail line (light metro or heavy rail) that dips into North Fayetteville from Clayton County which connects on up to the Airport and Downtown.

[StAubin]

Originally Posted by RoslynHolcomb

Uh, did you read the article? It would appear that the citizens of Fayette county like things just the way they are. They planned it that way! They want old rich people, not young couples just starting out. Somehow I don't think commuter rail is part of their plan.

Well, peachtree city is perfectly set up for commuter rail. It would give them dircet acces to the Airport(which alot of PTC residents work at) and Downtown.

Commuter Rail wouldn't change the demographics of the area.

[aries4118]

Originally Posted by StAubin

Well, peachtree city is perfectly set up for commuter rail. It would give them dircet acces to the Airport(which alot of PTC residents work at) and Downtown.

Commuter Rail wouldn't change the demographics of the area.

Indeed. And Tyrone too.