Commuter Rail should be "Plan B" for Atlanta Transportation (Savannah: costs, airport)
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Tōkaidō Shinkansen
320 miles connecting the following metro areas:
Tokyo metro population: 35 million
Shizuoka metro population: 700,000
Hamamatsu metro population: 800,000
Nagoya metro population: 2.3 million
Kyoto metro population: 1.4 million
Osaka metro population: 2.5 million
(plus several 100,000-300,000 population cities along the route)
Atlanta to Savannah route via Macon
About 250 miles connecting the following metro areas:
Atlanta metro population: 5.2 million
Macon metro population: 200,000
Savannah metro population: 360,000
Your simple "lets be like Japan" argument ignores reality.
Ah , but lets compare the European routes....Japan is bad comparison for the South or Midwestern states..
LGV Southeast line - 254 Miles Paris Metro - 12.1 Million
Le Creusot - 24,411
Macon - 35,900
Lyon Metro - 2.1 Million
Northeast Corridor - Shore route - 467 miles Greater Boston Metro - 7.6 Million
Greater New Haven Metro - 848,006
Greater New York - New Jersey - Connecitcut Metro - 22.1 Million
Greater Philadelphia Region - 5.9 Million
Baltimore–Washington Metropolitan Area - 8.9 Million
Northeastern Network Busiest lines
Northeast Corridor - Regional Rail & Intercity Daily Passengers in 2012 : 760,000+
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 2.8 Million
Length : 467 Miles
Stations : 151
Stations by 2030 : 169
Train Services in 2012 : 42
Train Services by 2030 : 57
Long Island Railroad Main Line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 257,000+
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 450,000
Length : 97 Miles
Stations : 29
Stations by 2030 : 34
Train Services in 2012 : 7
Trains Services by 2030 : 12
Morristown line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 75,000
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 145,000
Length : 79.3 Miles
Stations : 38
Stations by 2030 : 40
Train Services in 2012 : 3
Train Services by 2030 : 6
Hudson line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 68,500
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 95,200
Length : 141 miles
Stations : 32
Stations by 2030 : 34
Trains Services in 2012 : 6
Trains services by 2030 : 7
Keystone Corridor Daily Passengers in 2012 : 62,000
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 120,000
Length : 104 Miles
Stations : 27
Stations by 2030 : 32
Train Services in 2012 : 4
Trains Services by 2030 : 6
Savannah's resident population might not be high, but it is a popular tourist destination so an Atlanta to Savannah line would draw passengers. It sure beats the boring drive on I-16.
Well ok, the size and population differences alone does make it difficult for Georgia to be comparable to Japan, and that's no fault of GA. California is more comparable with its size and geographical features, and many large cities and metros including San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles, Palmdale, Bakersfield, Fresno, San Jose, San Francisco, and Sacramento, which are all going to be connected by their HSR line. But there's still no reason why Georgia shouldn't build an HSR line or lines.
There is one great reason not to do it.
1. Cost exceeds any reasonable return on the project. We COULD borrow billions of dollars to connect a small city to Atlanta (that is already connectced by a highway and a 3.5 hour drive) so that we can increase tourism connectivity between two medium sized tourist destinations. I COULD slather myself in cream cheese (I prefer strawberry low-fat) and run up and down Peachtree Street doing cartwheels. Doing either makes no sense.
Ah , but lets compare the European routes....Japan is bad comparison for the South or Midwestern states..
LGV Southeast line - 254 Miles Paris Metro - 12.1 Million
Le Creusot - 24,411
Macon - 35,900
Lyon Metro - 2.1 Million
Northeast Corridor - Shore route - 467 miles Greater Boston Metro - 7.6 Million
Greater New Haven Metro - 848,006
Greater New York - New Jersey - Connecitcut Metro - 22.1 Million
Greater Philadelphia Region - 5.9 Million
Baltimore–Washington Metropolitan Area - 8.9 Million
Northeastern Network Busiest lines
Northeast Corridor - Regional Rail & Intercity Daily Passengers in 2012 : 760,000+
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 2.8 Million
Length : 467 Miles
Stations : 151
Stations by 2030 : 169
Train Services in 2012 : 42
Train Services by 2030 : 57
Long Island Railroad Main Line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 257,000+
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 450,000
Length : 97 Miles
Stations : 29
Stations by 2030 : 34
Train Services in 2012 : 7
Trains Services by 2030 : 12
Morristown line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 75,000
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 145,000
Length : 79.3 Miles
Stations : 38
Stations by 2030 : 40
Train Services in 2012 : 3
Train Services by 2030 : 6
Hudson line Daily Passengers in 2012 : 68,500
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 95,200
Length : 141 miles
Stations : 32
Stations by 2030 : 34
Trains Services in 2012 : 6
Trains services by 2030 : 7
Keystone Corridor Daily Passengers in 2012 : 62,000
Projected Daily Passengers by 2030 : 120,000
Length : 104 Miles
Stations : 27
Stations by 2030 : 32
Train Services in 2012 : 4
Trains Services by 2030 : 6
Which of those lines is supposed to be similar to the ATL-SAV idea that we are talking about? They are either much shorter, connect larger cities, much more dense or some combination of the three.
Looks like we have over $11 million in unclaimed federal funds sitting there, although I don't know whether any of that could or should be applied to commuter rail. Maybe it's all highway money, but either way the feds are saying "use it or lose it."
Actually, I think that a better high speed line would be Atlanta to at least Jacksonville, and maybe more conventional speed service running down the Florida coast. Florida is a popular destination year round, and 220mph bullet trains would put weekend getaways to Florida in the reach of a LOT of people. A train running 220 most of the way and stopping at Hartsfield, Macon, Cordele, Fitzgerald, Douglas, Waycross, and Jacksonville, continuing at 79mph to Daytona Beach and Cocoa, would give an Atlanta to Jacksonville time of about 2:10, Daytona in 3:20, and Cocoa in 4:10. That puts the central Florida beaches easily in reach of a weekend trip. Leave at 4, arrive at 8, bed by 10, leave Sunday at 2, home by 6. Miami on conventional speeds south of Jacksonville is only about 7 hours away with all the HSR running in South Georgia. Very competitive with drive times, and Atlanta to Cocoa is fairly competitive with flight times especially once the convenience, or productivity factors are factored in.
Actually, I think that a better high speed line would be Atlanta to at least Jacksonville, and maybe more conventional speed service running down the Florida coast. Florida is a popular destination year round, and 220mph bullet trains would put weekend getaways to Florida in the reach of a LOT of people. A train running 220 most of the way and stopping at Hartsfield, Macon, Cordele, Fitzgerald, Douglas, Waycross, and Jacksonville, continuing at 79mph to Daytona Beach and Cocoa, would give an Atlanta to Jacksonville time of about 2:10, Daytona in 3:20, and Cocoa in 4:10. That puts the central Florida beaches easily in reach of a weekend trip. Leave at 4, arrive at 8, bed by 10, leave Sunday at 2, home by 6. Miami on conventional speeds south of Jacksonville is only about 7 hours away with all the HSR running in South Georgia. Very competitive with drive times, and Atlanta to Cocoa is fairly competitive with flight times especially once the convenience, or productivity factors are factored in.
Lets add some facts and logic to this discussion and move beyond the "trains are cool" arguments. HSR is cool and could be great in the right markets/density. However...
Delta flight to Daytona: $119
Delta flight to FTL: $105
Delta flight to Jax: $119
Delta flight to Miami: $105
Delta flight to Melbourne: $119
Delta flight to WPB: $119
It seems like price competitive options already exist.
Using the average cost per kilometer of $.20 (which is a very low estimate given the $.35 per km cost of HSR tickets in the NE US) and a distance of about 515 km ATL to Jax, you get a cost per ticket of $103. Doesn't seem like much savings. ATL to Daytona would be $133 one way. Any further down the coast would be much cheaper flying and faster.
Why should we invest billions upon billions of dollars in something that provides at best a duplicate transportation option and little to no benefits to the consumer? If a private investor wanted to make this investment, go for it, but govt money? Hell nah.
Whatever came of the talk of a high speed rail line between Hartsfiled and Chattanooga's airport? It would have had a stop in Cobb if I recall and answer the need for a second airport for the region.
The story with that... Nothing is really happening and probably won't for some time.
Long-story.
Mag-lev technology is really too expensive, but has a huge speed advantage... even over high speed rail.
The federal government 5-10 years ago expressed interest in building a test section. A section to try it out, see if it is worth, but also learn if there is way to build it more efficiently. There were about 6 corridors across the US competing for money that never was spent.
The reason the Atlanta-Chattanooga line was appealing: If you look at the national high speed -rail- map you'll notice a big gap between Atlanta and Chicago (the natural midwestern hub and the natural southern rail hub). These cities are really just a little bit too far apart for high speed rail feasibility, but a faster mag-lev would level the playing field.
The Atlanta-Chattanooga route had the benefit of being a down payment for such a high-value national line, but a small test line that met our local/regional purpose for now. (This is also why we can't easily move it to another nearby city.)
Anyways, we'd still have to out compete other corridors for federal money that doesn't yet exist or pay a projected $3b-$5b to build it ourselves.
Basically it isn't going to happen, unless we decided to put all our money into building a second airport/major expansion into that one line for the purposes of using their airport.
The reason the Atlanta-Chattanooga line was appealing: If you look at the national high speed -rail- map you'll notice a big gap between Atlanta and Chicago (the natural midwestern hub and the natural southern rail hub). These cities are really just a little bit too far apart for high speed rail feasibility, but a faster mag-lev would level the playing field.
For just Atlanta to Chicago, yes, they're a bit far apart and 220mph HSR would take about 5 hours end to end. But Don't forget, that you also have St. Louis, Nashville, Chattanooga, and a few other worthy cities in between. Each of those cities are two hours or less from the next city each direction on the line. HSR also has the benefit of going downtown to downtown. It's at least 40 minutes from the scheduled arrival time at the airport gate, to arriving at the city center for both Nashville and Chicago, and all I'm counting there is going straight from the airport door to the gate, and from the gate to the door, not factoring in security, baggage retrieval, "arrive early time" or anything else. That, plus the flight time is very close to the HSR downtown to downtown time. Sure, you'll have some people say living near the airport, with an appointment on the outskirts of the destination city, but HSR provides a more uniform "catchment" area, and has even more coverage if you stop in a suburb on the way out. For instance, Joliet would make a great HSR station for the Chicago area.
The story with that... Nothing is really happening and probably won't for some time.
Long-story.
Mag-lev technology is really too expensive, but has a huge speed advantage... even over high speed rail.
The federal government 5-10 years ago expressed interest in building a test section. A section to try it out, see if it is worth, but also learn if there is way to build it more efficiently. There were about 6 corridors across the US competing for money that never was spent.
The reason the Atlanta-Chattanooga line was appealing: If you look at the national high speed -rail- map you'll notice a big gap between Atlanta and Chicago (the natural midwestern hub and the natural southern rail hub). These cities are really just a little bit too far apart for high speed rail feasibility, but a faster mag-lev would level the playing field.
The Atlanta-Chattanooga route had the benefit of being a down payment for such a high-value national line, but a small test line that met our local/regional purpose for now. (This is also why we can't easily move it to another nearby city.)
Anyways, we'd still have to out compete other corridors for federal money that doesn't yet exist or pay a projected $3b-$5b to build it ourselves.
Basically it isn't going to happen, unless we decided to put all our money into building a second airport/major expansion into that one line for the purposes of using their airport.
Appreciate the update, and great info as you always give.
Actually, I think that a better high speed line would be Atlanta to at least Jacksonville, and maybe more conventional speed service running down the Florida coast. Florida is a popular destination year round, and 220mph bullet trains would put weekend getaways to Florida in the reach of a LOT of people. A train running 220 most of the way and stopping at Hartsfield, Macon, Cordele, Fitzgerald, Douglas, Waycross, and Jacksonville, continuing at 79mph to Daytona Beach and Cocoa, would give an Atlanta to Jacksonville time of about 2:10, Daytona in 3:20, and Cocoa in 4:10. That puts the central Florida beaches easily in reach of a weekend trip. Leave at 4, arrive at 8, bed by 10, leave Sunday at 2, home by 6. Miami on conventional speeds south of Jacksonville is only about 7 hours away with all the HSR running in South Georgia. Very competitive with drive times, and Atlanta to Cocoa is fairly competitive with flight times especially once the convenience, or productivity factors are factored in.
I think the Atlanta to Jacksonville line should go through Savannah.
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