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Old 08-28-2012, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,562 posts, read 7,680,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Not to be negative, but isn't there always a possibility that an area's schools can crash and burn in a very short period of time? Schools are very fragile things and it doesn't take much to send them into a downward spiral.

I'd bet that if you talked to folks whose schools have experienced decline, and asked them whether they would have predicted it 5 or 10 years in advance, most would say no. People often don't see those changes until late in the game. Then you hit a tipping point where people lose confidence and things can unravel quickly.

Although schools can be repaired it's a much more arduous process. You can't do it with money.
I'm not completely sure...

I'll admit some people might not always see it coming nor am I naive to think that any school won't change over time (over long periods of time almost all schools have), but I do think there are contributing variables to how -stable- and invested a population is to a school district.

The big thing for me is if the area is mainly single family homes and not rentals and home-ownership is high, then demographics will change very slowly.

New apartments, however, might be full of mostly singles and young couples but in 5 years and a housing crash later, they are full of families that can't afford home-ownership. This would drastically change the demographic of a school rapidly, whereas changes in home ownership happen a bit slower.

What I will say about that Parkview school district (and soon be true for Brookwood), is many of the homes were built in the late 70s to the mid-90s (add an avg of 5-10 years for brookwood). That first wave of young families with kids has gone through. Many homes have empty nesters and there are some young families just now moving back in. This has a big impact on schools in terms of racial diversity, but the socioeconomic diversity is fairly stable (because of the cost of home ownership) and lack of affordable options for poorer populations.

If you look at the racial make up of the district population vs the school enrollment, you will see a more diversified student body from the population...racially. But again, as for socioeconomic status, family involvement, college ambitions, etc... that has remained fairly stable.

If I had school-age kids now.. I would feel safe moving here for the length of a k-12 outlook... now would my grandchildren still have a good school here... that is way too far away to speculate.

The other variable is access to good jobs... is that going to be lessened or improved over the future. That affects, but is not exclusive of other variables, whether a district might trend up or down. I'd say the job access outlook for the area is stable. Maybe slightly improved, while companies like NCR are moving in near the Gwinnett Place Mall area (especially true for Brookwood with Ronald Reagan Pkwy).
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Old 08-28-2012, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Georgia native in McKinney, TX
7,415 posts, read 10,080,587 times
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Agree with Aries and others that your commute would not be good, but very refreshing to hear you speak highly of that area of Cobb, was my part of town when I lived in Cobb.

Re the subject of what is East Cobb and what is not, living most of my time in the area Roslyn mentions, first off of Canton Road and then off of Bells Ferry Road, we did not feel like East Cobbers there. Technically we were, had a Marietta 30066 zip code at both homes, but in my mind Sandy Plains Road was the demarcation of true East Cobb. Once I crossed Sandy Plains/East Piedmont, then I felt I had entered true East Cobb. Walton district is certified East Cobb and if you aren't in Walton district to some folks, you weren't true blue East Cobb. Or maybe that is the suitable addres for the East Cobb Snob demonym, lol.

So until Bill Byrnes gets the East Cobb cityhood movement off the ground, that term will be somewhat nebulous. The Canton/Bells Ferry corridor is nice but solidly middle class, not upper middle class like true East Cobb near Roswell/Lower Roswell/Johnson Ferry corridors.
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Old 08-28-2012, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Metro Atlanta, GA
449 posts, read 819,946 times
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I would also look at either the Parkview or Brookwood districts as viable options. Don't see either area being Dekalb Part II any time soon.
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Old 08-29-2012, 06:56 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA (Dunwoody)
2,047 posts, read 3,967,143 times
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Thanks for that analysis cwkimbro. We probably would have held pat in DeKalb. We have a third grader and I'm reasonably sure we could have gotten him through the system in relatively good order. But we now have a sixteen month old. I think the ensuing collapse in Dekalb is going to occur before we could get him through grade school. Ideally we will be making the move as #1 heads off to middle school and before #2 starts first grade. That is the plan for now. I did a little scouting around the Parkview district yesterday. Got lost, of course, but IMO that's the best way to explore a place. I really did like it. I'm thinking Camp Creek Elementary is out of our price range, $300k is our absolutely top, but we'd prefer to go lower. Want to get a little bit larger. I really want a fourth bedroom and possibly a basement or garage. Seemed like we'd get a lot of house for the money.

Saintmarks, i don't know why anyone would speak poorly of the area. The hills remind me of home. The two parks we saw were well maintained. I have no idea how they've kept the grass on the soccer fields alive this late in the summer! We ate at a great Italian place called Vespucci's. We drove around several subdivisions. Saw kids out on bikes and just running around. People were very friendly, and to be frank, that's what made me wonder if we were in East Cobb. I wasn't expecting that from what people have said on this forum. I know what you mean about the school zone thing. To a lot of people in Dunwoody if you're not zoned to Austin or Vanderlyn you're not in Dunwoody. As my nieces would say, Whatev.
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Old 08-29-2012, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,562 posts, read 7,680,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RoslynHolcomb View Post
Thanks for that analysis cwkimbro. We probably would have held pat in DeKalb. We have a third grader and I'm reasonably sure we could have gotten him through the system in relatively good order. But we now have a sixteen month old. I think the ensuing collapse in Dekalb is going to occur before we could get him through grade school. Ideally we will be making the move as #1 heads off to middle school and before #2 starts first grade. That is the plan for now. I did a little scouting around the Parkview district yesterday. Got lost, of course, but IMO that's the best way to explore a place. I really did like it. I'm thinking Camp Creek Elementary is out of our price range, $300k is our absolutely top, but we'd prefer to go lower. Want to get a little bit larger. I really want a fourth bedroom and possibly a basement or garage. Seemed like we'd get a lot of house for the money.

Saintmarks, i don't know why anyone would speak poorly of the area. The hills remind me of home. The two parks we saw were well maintained. I have no idea how they've kept the grass on the soccer fields alive this late in the summer! We ate at a great Italian place called Vespucci's. We drove around several subdivisions. Saw kids out on bikes and just running around. People were very friendly, and to be frank, that's what made me wonder if we were in East Cobb. I wasn't expecting that from what people have said on this forum. I know what you mean about the school zone thing. To a lot of people in Dunwoody if you're not zoned to Austin or Vanderlyn you're not in Dunwoody. As my nieces would say, Whatev.
You should be able to get into the area with around $200,000-$250,00 right now, but limited options. 4 bedrooms are common. 5.. much less so. Most of the previous foreclosures I saw sitting around when times were really bad have sold, but there are still a few that pop up and seem to get sold quickly for under $200,000.

What you can't get in this area for under $300,000 is a new home. Most of the new infill neighborhoods around here are building again and they are advertising $300,000-$600,000's.

The homes in your price range will be '70s era ranches on large lots or two-story '80s colonials, which both will have traditional layouts.

If you want a newer home or a modern layout. Definitely look more at Brookwood. They still have the traditional homes built in the '80s, but they have more new neighborhoods being built and for cheaper prices.

I also might take a gander/drive at North Duluth/Suwanee... particularly close to Peachtree Industrial. There are alot of new homes out there at different price points. I haven't lived there, so I don't know as much as others, but that area is definitely moving in an upward trajectory and has access to local jobs (potential for property values to rise moving into the future).

The only thing is... I would do a test commute down Peachtree Industrial. There aren't too many back roads to take and many people use PIB to get to Peachtree Corners and 285, but it goes right to Chamblee.

Just curious... where in Dekalb are you? I was under the impression the many parts of Northern Dekalb are starting to do better and better, especially with the increased interest towards Perimeter and Brookhaven. While I don't care for the system's leadership, I thought that might lead localized improvements for some schools in North Dekalb.
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Old 08-29-2012, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
6,562 posts, read 7,680,108 times
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One last thing. The Gwinnett Co schools profile page's have links to really good district maps.

These are handy to look at, while looking at a website like Trulia. It makes figuring out, which neighborhood goes to which school much easier!

http://www.gwinnett.k12.ga.us/gcps-mainweb01.nsf/D09A8D8458EFBE5E852575DE006A357C/$file/Parkview_Cluster_Map_2011-12.pdf

http://www.gwinnett.k12.ga.us/gcps-mainweb01.nsf/2E85616884640F49852575DE0068813E/$file/Brookwood_Cluster_Map_2011-12.pdf
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Old 08-29-2012, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA (Dunwoody)
2,047 posts, read 3,967,143 times
Reputation: 959
Quote:
Just curious... where in Dekalb are you? I was under the impression the many parts of Northern Dekalb are starting to do better and better, especially with the increased interest towards Perimeter and Brookhaven. While I don't care for the system's leadership, I thought that might lead localized improvements for some schools in North Dekalb.
We're in Dunwoody. I am convinced the implosion of this school system is inevitable. The administration is idiotic. In all fairness I do believe that the problems may simply be insurmountable given the system's size, the economy and the way it is hamstringed by the legislature. I fully support the creation of these North DeKalb cities, but given that it would literally require a Constitutional amendment to create our own school system they are of limited value. I do believe this will eventually happen. I don't see these people continuing to pay premium home prices and taxes, AND private school tuition. Of course, I could be wrong.
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Old 08-29-2012, 04:22 PM
 
29,386 posts, read 26,345,718 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GRS86 View Post
I would also look at either the Parkview or Brookwood districts as viable options. Don't see either area being Dekalb Part II any time soon.
Haven't a number of Gwinnett schools rather abruptly gone downhill? Again, I'm not trying to be negative, just pointing out that schools are pretty ephemeral.
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Old 08-29-2012, 04:23 PM
 
35 posts, read 35,147 times
Reputation: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Not to be negative, but isn't there always a possibility that an area's schools can crash and burn in a very short period of time? Schools are very fragile things and it doesn't take much to send them into a downward spiral.

I'd bet that if you talked to folks whose schools have experienced decline, and asked them whether they would have predicted it 5 or 10 years in advance, most would say no. People often don't see those changes until late in the game. Then you hit a tipping point where people lose confidence and things can unravel quickly.

Although schools can be repaired it's a much more arduous process. You can't do it with money.
East Cobb should continue to be strong as the creative class of hip-hop and entertainment creates a desire for urban professionals to have 40 min commutes. Add the strong Georgia School systems and it's a recipe for high growth. Property values should do well too, perhaps only falling by 10% or so a year. Compared to Dekalb, Atlanta's sister county and sister economic engine, this is much improved.
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Old 08-29-2012, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Metro Atlanta, GA
449 posts, read 819,946 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RoslynHolcomb View Post
We're in Dunwoody. I am convinced the implosion of this school system is inevitable. The administration is idiotic. In all fairness I do believe that the problems may simply be insurmountable given the system's size, the economy and the way it is hamstringed by the legislature. I fully support the creation of these North DeKalb cities, but given that it would literally require a Constitutional amendment to create our own school system they are of limited value. I do believe this will eventually happen. I don't see these people continuing to pay premium home prices and taxes, AND private school tuition. Of course, I could be wrong.
The implosion of the DCSS is definitely inevitable. There are just too many cultural differences between North and South DeKalb for that system to be viable. More idiotic than the administration are the voters who elect the school board. There's no way that I would be in DeKalb with school aged kids, unless they were juniors or senior and just about out. This is very sad for a school system that during my grade school years of the 70's and the early 80's, was the system that most other systems in GA either measured themselves against, aspired to be like, or both.

I live right on the DeKalb - Gwinnett line. Were it not for my home being underwater, I'd leave DeKalb. Not only is the school system going down the wrong path, the county as a whole is.
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