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Old 11-08-2012, 07:55 AM
JPD
 
12,159 posts, read 15,779,473 times
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Even Kyle Wingfield, the GOP cheerleader over at the AJC, thinks GA is going to face the same demographic reality that hurt the GOP nationally on Tuesday.

How the GOP needs to change, and how it doesn’t | Kyle Wingfield

5. Georgia Republicans are a few years away from facing some of the same issues as the national GOP.

True, true, true. – By Kyle Wingfield
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:21 PM
 
Location: St Simons Island, GA
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The future of the Republican Party is Libertarianism, whether they like it or not. Lay off issues like rape, abortion and gay marriage, idiots.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:53 PM
JPD
 
12,159 posts, read 15,779,473 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LovinDecatur View Post
The future of the Republican Party is Libertarianism, whether they like it or not. Lay off issues like rape, abortion and gay marriage, idiots.
That's probably a smart strategy, but virtually all libertarians vote R as it is, so I'm not sure how much of a gain they'd get. If everyone who claims to be a Libertarian actually voted that way, the Libertarian party would be getting 30+% of the popular vote in every election.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:58 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
391 posts, read 574,977 times
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Yes, I think GA will change. Old white men are on their way out.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:46 PM
 
33,836 posts, read 31,096,507 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
I believe Bill Clinton won Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Kentucky, and Ohio in the 1992 election Many of those are consistently conservative and red states, it can be done, you just need someone popular enough.

Look for the deep south to be the few remaining red states in coming years. I see North Carolina becoming a battle ground state as its urban areas continue to expand, Virginia will likely remain a battle ground state, and Georgia may become the next North Carolina.
It already is; this election pretty much solidified its status as a true solid purple swing state. Georgia will be approaching that status within 10 years.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,333 posts, read 23,313,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirabella View Post
Yes, I think GA will change. Old white men are on their way out.
That's too bad. Many of us are more liberal than the general populace down here.

Ok, maybe I'm not "old" old except to 21 year olds, but my beard is more gray now than it is brown.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:19 PM
 
2,326 posts, read 2,460,278 times
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Maybe, but this suggests otherwise. The demographics may be changing but the Republicans now have a supermajority in the state.

Charlton County Herald > Opinion > Editorials > CRAWFORD / Republicans build a super-majority

Hispanics and urban dwellers will help the gap narrow over the next decade, but they will be outnumbered by the rural and suburban voters who lean conservative. If there was another big city in Georgia, it would definitely swing to the Democrats.

Think Pennsylvania as an comparison (in the other direction). The state has two big cities and the urban voters always turn the state blue, outnumbering the folks in the rural areas. Georgia will be a "swing state" the way PA is a "swing state" ; slight possibility of "swinging", but rarely, if ever, happens.
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Old 11-08-2012, 06:54 PM
 
31 posts, read 31,324 times
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Well, 8 percentage points is a pretty big margin to overcome. It would take a complete collapse of the Republican party as a national party for Georgia to be a genuine swing state.

You can see the relative rankings of the states in the last election (along with much else of great value) here:

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage - NYTimes.com
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Old 11-08-2012, 07:35 PM
 
4,469 posts, read 4,758,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBurgh View Post
Maybe, but this suggests otherwise. The demographics may be changing but the Republicans now have a supermajority in the state.

Charlton County Herald > Opinion > Editorials > CRAWFORD / Republicans build a super-majority

Hispanics and urban dwellers will help the gap narrow over the next decade, but they will be outnumbered by the rural and suburban voters who lean conservative. If there was another big city in Georgia, it would definitely swing to the Democrats.

Think Pennsylvania as an comparison (in the other direction). The state has two big cities and the urban voters always turn the state blue, outnumbering the folks in the rural areas. Georgia will be a "swing state" the way PA is a "swing state" ; slight possibility of "swinging", but rarely, if ever, happens.
I doubt that a supermajority republican party will last, For what ever the reason Georgia has to have a above national average proportion of white voters voting republican for them to off set the minority percentage of the state. Seriously 44.5% of the state is minority, and 85% of Atlanta's growth are minorities, whites make 55.5% of the state. I think this is happening because minorities are participating less in local politics than national. And lot of the crazy stuff they will pass will likely be over turn down the road. Atlanta is projected to become minority majority the state as whole is projected to become minority majority.

The number of major cities is irreverent look at Illinois it's a blue state simply because of Chicago. Atlanta makes over 6/10 of the state's pop. Outside of metro Atlanta most cities are democrat but there suburbs are far republican. But heck outside of Chicago there's nothing Democrat in Illinois it just republican dreamland. But the reasons Georgia is still red leaning and not swing yet is because of Cobb and Gwinnett county are center right counties, when they start to swing or even may turn blue, Georgia will turn swing. A few other counties like Henry and Douglas may also start to swing.
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Old 11-08-2012, 09:53 PM
 
Location: East Point
4,236 posts, read 5,216,910 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atl parent View Post
Well, 8 percentage points is a pretty big margin to overcome. It would take a complete collapse of the Republican party as a national party for Georgia to be a genuine swing state.

You can see the relative rankings of the states in the last election (along with much else of great value) here:

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage - NYTimes.com
2004 was 59%-41% for bush in georgia— that's an 18 point lead. if georgia could jump to 52-47, a five point lead, in only four years, i don't see how eight percentage points is that big of a deal.
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