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I disagree. I think Georgia has a greater chance of of electing a black governor than most northern states. Let's also not forget that most of the wealthy in the Atlanta suburbs are people who very likely moved here from the north. Kasim Reed probably has a better chance of winning a statewide race than any white Democrat I can think of. So if Kasim Reed did lose a race for governor, it would have far less to do with him being black that it would with his being a Democrat. I'm a Republican, but I think our prior Republican governor was one of the most visionless leaders I've seen in my years in Georgia while I think Reed is one of the most visionary. While Reed is far more liberal than I am, I would vote for him in a heartbeat if he ran for governor because I think having vision trumps ideology in terms of what this state needs.
Many Republican voters share your opinion of former Governor Sonny Perdue, a man whom many Georgians regard to be one of the state's worst-ever governors because of his failure to adequately lead on increasingly major challenges facing the state like water, education and transportation.
Perdue is also not highly-regarded in Georgia history books because of his sometimes highly-unproductive and sometimes highly-adversarial relationship with the Georgia Legislature, particularly his often-hostile relationship with the Georgia House of Representatives and former House Speaker Glenn Richardson, who during his speakership was suffering from a deepening depression that caused some very angry and erratic behavior and eventually lead to a suicide attempt.
I also agree that Kasim Reed would likely have a better chance of winning a statewide race than any other Democratic, largely because of his fundraising prowess and because he is a well-known and highly-visible figure in Georgia politics.
Though, that high-visibility in Georgia politics (particularly Atlanta regional politics) is also something that could (and will) work against him as he became more of an advocate and the face of the much-hated T-SPLOST referendum as the campaign became increasingly unpopular with Georgia voters.
Another thing that will work against Reed in a statewide race is that he is the liberal mayor of a progressive city in Atlanta in a state where liberal politicians and progressive ideas are not all that popular amongst an electorate dominated by conservative voters.
If Reed chooses to run for governor and becomes the Democratic nominee in 2018, another thing that could work against him is if current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle chooses to run for governor.
Cagle, who is very-popular and well-liked amongst Republican voters in the state, wanted to run for governor in 2010, but was prevented from running due to health problems with his back.
Cagle's immense popularity with Republicans in a Republican-dominated electorate (if I'm correct, the very-popular Cagle has been the leading vote-getter in the entire state in every statewide election he has run in since 2006) and Cagle's accumulation of power, wealth and statewide connections as a sitting 3-term Lt. Governor will be a problem for any Democratic challenger should Cagle become the Republican nominee in 2018...
...But Cagle's popularity, power, wealth and valuable connections that he has amassed as Lt. Governor (which is already a very-powerful position in state government to begin with) will likely especially be a problem for a liberal urban politician like Reed who has very-high negatives amongst a largely-conservative, suburban, exurban and rural electorate outside of the I-285 Perimeter.
The state's fast-changing demographics signify that 2018 could likely be the Georgia Democrats' best chance of contending in the Governor's race since 2002, but Georgia Democrats' currently-rebuilding organization may not necessarily be ready to clinch them the Governor's Mansion that soon as the Georgia Democrats would have to be able to turnout very-large numbers of minorities and moderate whites to overcome the very-large number of conservative voters who would turnout for to vote for a Casey Cagle.
At this particular juncture, it appears that Georgia Democrats will edge closer and become more competitive in statewide contests with each major election year, but Georgia Democrats will not necessarily have the combination of demographics, money, organization and turnout to truly contend and clinch statewide races on a consistent basis until sometime during the decade of the '20's on their current trajectory.
Though, because of the questionable quality of the Republican candidates in the U.S. Senate race and because of the very-well and widely-respected legacy of the Nunn family name in Georgia politics, Georgia Democrats will potentially be able to make things a lot more interesting than Georgia Republicans would like in 2014.
A potential Hillary Clinton candidacy for President in 2016 could also potentially give Georgia Democrats a boost in fundraising and organization because of Hillary Clinton's potential appeal with female voters and because of Bill Clinton's comfort with campaigning in conservative Southern states like Georgia.
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Originally Posted by bryantm3
i don't think reed has a vision at all. i think he just takes stuff as it comes along. if he was really a visionary he'd be doing something about the beltline, downtown, etc.
however, i do agree with you that georgia is not far from electing a black governor. those that think atlanta is a 'conservative metro' are kind of retarded. i ran the numbers a couple of years ago and atlanta's combined statistical area (not city limits, not metro area, i'm talking CSA, all the way to the alabama state line and halfway to the north carolina state line) went for obama in '08, and barely went for romney in '12. and i wasn't even counting athens, ga (which is now in our combined statistical area).
if you can't even get a clear republican win even by including far-fetched counties like troup and pickens, calling the metro area 'conservative' is absurd. the answer is that we're a centrist metro at this time.
the only reasons republicans have so many congressmen in this state is because the districts are gerrymandered by the state legislature (which is republican).
and for those that think GA is all red outside of atlanta, think again. the 'black belt' extending from augusta, to macon, to albany, reliably votes for democrats, and the georgia coast, especially around savannah, leans democratic.
the fact of the matter is that right now we're a center-right state and within a couple of years will be a swing state.
These are excellent points because with racial and ethnic minorities making up 45% of the state's population, Georgia's demographic makeup is similar to that of the state of Maryland where racial and ethnic minorities make up 46% of the state's population and Democrats dominate the state's political climate.
Georgia's 45% minority population is also about two percentage points higher than in neighboring Southeastern swing state Florida where racial and ethnic minorities make up 43% of the population.
And Georgia's 45% minority population is also about 10 percentage points higher than in Southeastern swing states Virginia and North Carolina where racial and ethnic minorities make up over 35% of the population of each state.
Some numbers that are really eye-popping in Metro Atlanta are in Gwinnett County where there are more Republican voters than in any other county in the state of Georgia.
Racial and ethnic minorities make up nearly 58% of the population in the Republican stronghold of Gwinnett County (a county which also has one of the highest numbers, if not the highest number, of Republican voters in the entire Southeastern U.S.).
That racial and ethnic minorities make up just under 58% of the population of the strongest and most-powerful Republican county in the state of Georgia and one of the strongest and most-powerful Republican counties in the entire U.S. is a total demographic reversal from years and decades past as racial and ethnic minorities only made up 4% of the population in 1980.
Some more eye-popping numbers are in Rockdale County where racial and ethnic minorities only made up 10% of the population in 1980, but have grown to make up 61% of the population as of 2013.
The stark demographic changes in Rockdale County have led to some political changes within the last decade as all county political offices but the Sheriff changed from being held by white Republicans to being held by black Democrats during the 2008 election cycle.
Those demographically-induced political changes were chronicled and discussed in this political blog entry titled "To See The Republican Future in Georgia, Watch Rockdale": To See The Republican Future in Georgia, Watch Rockdale.
Here is a 2012 campaign flyer that visually illustrates the dramatic political changes that have occurred due to the stark demographic changes that have occurred as outer-suburban Rockdale County has shifted from being an overwhelmingly predominately white and Republican-controlled county to being a predominantly minority and increasingly Democrat-controlled county:
The stark demographic changes that have occurred in traditionally rock-solid Republican outer-suburban strongholds like Gwinnett and Rockdale counties (as well as the ongoing dramatic demographic changes that are continuing to occur in the traditionally rock-solid Republican suburban strongholds of Douglas, Newton, Henry and traditionally super-conservative Cobb) have set off loud alarm bells and warning buzzers for the currently ultra-dominant Georgia GOP which presently holds supermajorities in both chambers of the Georgia Legislature and controls all statewide political offices.
To the currently ultra-dominant Georgia GOP, Rockdale County has become the Republican version of 'the canary in the coal mine' as demonstrated by the recent removal of the historical statue of Tom Watson (a very-racist figure from Georgia's racist political climate of the early 20th Century) from the front of the Georgia State Capitol and a continuing dialogue that openly contemplates to replace that statue of the racist Tom Watson with a statue of civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. as Georgia Republican leaders seek to appeal to minority voters in a state where minorities will soon be a majority of the population.
Georgia's fast-changing demographics have made the current GOP legislative supermajority seem very-fragile to many state Republican leaders that the fast-growing number of minority voters could erode Republican power and dominance over the state's political climate in a relatively very-short period of time.
Though, despite fast-changing demographics that are making minorities and moderate whites an increasingly-large part of population of the state and the Atlanta metro region; minority voters and moderate white voters who might be open to voting for Democrats still make up a relatively small and inconsistent part of the state's electorate which continues to be dominated by conservative whites and reliably Republican voters...
...This fact was recently demonstrated in ultra-diverse Gwinnett County where voter turnout in some local elections was as low as 6% and is routinely well below the 20% mark, if that.
Georgia's demographics may be quickly-changing in favor of Georgia Democrats, but the major problem for Georgia Democrats (who continue to struggle mightily to raise funds and build organization in a state where conservative voters and reliably Republican voters still overwhelmingly dominate the electorate despite the dramatic demographic changes) is that they do not currently have the money or the organization to take advantage of those demographic changes.
(...Georgia Democrats had as little as $15,000 in funds on hand in early 2013 while Georgia Republicans continue to enjoy an overwhelming fundraising advantage with many high-profile Republican politicians and candidates each individually having millions of dollars on hand and the party being known to go on huge fundraising blitzes several times a week at the state and county levels.)
I don't have the local perspective on this from Texas as you guys do, but I watched Reed intently on the national programs during the latest icecapades. I say he missed a great opportunity to show himself as a leader and uniter of all of metro Atlanta which would have gone a long way to help him in any statewide election. Instead I saw him quibble with outsiders of what the COA had done and how areas that were outside his jurisdiction were not his fault. Interesting that Born2Roll says he was deflecting heat from Deal, maybe that is so, but it sure didn't cross my mind.
If he stands a chance to win state election, he MUST do more to unite the metro area, must build bridges with the many constituencies of metro Atlanta, even if it is more of a figure head approach. If he keeps up the Atlanta vs. the rest of them mentality, suburbanites will not be as likely to jump on his bandwagon in any state wide election. And if you don't have the Atlanta burbs in your pocket, you don't have much of a chance.
How is Reed supposed to unite the region when it is so fragmented? He is the mayor of the city of Atlanta, nothing more.
How is Reed supposed to unite the region when it is so fragmented? He is the mayor of the city of Atlanta, nothing more.
I have been a student of how the metro area runs since I was a teen. Don't ask me why, but it has always been an interest of mine. I know how the area works... and doesn't work.
I specifically used the term "figure head" in my comment previous. Of course there is no one uniting the metro area as a whole. It is fragmented. I mentioned this in light of a potential run for governor and that he missed an opportunity to be seen in a leadership role of uniting the area.
Of course he doesn't have any responsibility in this area. All he has to do his take care of his city. BUT, if he does want to be Governor as this thread seems to suggest, a more reconciliatory tone would have scored him some points. Some proactive working with other leaders in the metro to solve problems before the fact and even after would have scored him some points. My point is he lost points as he came across as a finger pointer and self protectionist. In the end, the perception was, from here in Texas, that he just added to the blame game that everyone seemed to have an acute case of.
I have been a student of how the metro area runs since I was a teen. Don't ask me why, but it has always been an interest of mine. I know how the area works... and doesn't work.
I specifically used the term "figure head" in my comment previous. Of course there is no one uniting the metro area as a whole. It is fragmented. I mentioned this in light of a potential run for governor and that he missed an opportunity to be seen in a leadership role of uniting the area.
Of course he doesn't have any responsibility in this area. All he has to do his take care of his city. BUT, if he does want to be Governor as this thread seems to suggest, a more reconciliatory tone would have scored him some points. Some proactive working with other leaders in the metro to solve problems before the fact and even after would have scored him some points. My point is he lost points as he came across as a finger pointer and self protectionist. In the end, the perception was, from here in Texas, that he just added to the blame game that everyone seemed to have an acute case of.
"A more conciliatory tone"? What the hell was he supposed to say? "Peace be upon them"?
"A more conciliatory tone"? What the hell was he supposed to say? "Peace be upon them"?
The term I used was "reconciliatory," not conciliatory. There is a difference. It means to bring opposing forces together. It means to right past wrongs. Good leaders lead that way and bridge gaps and tear down walls.
Again, he did not have to do a thing. He just missed an opportunity to do some good for his image and he fumbled it. All of that to say, again, and I repeat myself (but this will be the last time) IF HE TRULY WANTS TO BE GOVERNOR. He cannot win a statewide election without major support of the Atlanta suburbs.
If he just wants to be Atlanta mayor and then maybe Congress or get appointed to some Cabinet position, then keep on being the mayor of just COA and don't give a damn about the region.
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