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Old 01-21-2013, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA..don't go to GSU
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It's about time we Atlantans have this talk. For those of you who have been following the conference reshuffling, you probably know that this week will be THE week for conference realignment. BIG 12 is supposed to meet on the 28th for talks. BIG 10 is anticipated to make a nab for teams this week, SEC will counter that move. Meanwhile, Big least has fallen to ashes. Basically SEC and BIG 10 will be expanding. It will be affecting UGA and GT probably for the better. BIG 10 will make the first move. Only then will SEC react. If only BIG 12 expands then it's iffy. May or may not domino realignments. The big 12 doesn't even have 12 members.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...e-in-expansion

Predications? Thoughts?

Perfect timing if Tech joins BIG 10. College Football Hall of Fame will be home to the SEC and BIG 10. BIG 10 is definitely better academically and it'll bring Tech a boatload of money and research partnerships..which will, in turn, help students and Georgians. BIG 10 has their own network. SEC is probably going to finalize their network in the next few months.

My predications:

Clemson - possible BIG 12 candidate. Most popular pick for big 12. Not that much financial resources for big 12. Would be the second to last most well endowed school.

FSU - possible BIG 12 candidate. Most popular pick for big 12. I can easily see it happening. Geographically it's a dud, but so was WVU. Endowment would be meh compared to other big 12 teams, but the Noles following would be intense.

UNC & Duke - Still think SEC will try to pry them away from BIG 10, but might end up in the BIG 10 if they don't go for UVA and Tech. SEC won't expand in a state it already owns. So sorry Clemson and FSU fans, it's not happening. I believe SEC is also trying to strengthen it's academics. TAMU and Missouri were both AAU. If UGA gets AAU status in the next few years(which is expected) then we'll end up with 5 AAU teams. UNC and Duke might overlook academics of SEC west for the money. Both would be awesome basketball schools and the NC market is huge. NC is almost the size of GA. Would solidify the SEC dominance of the south for sure. Especially if Big 12 and Big 10 move into it's territory. Don't think UNC and Duke will split, so SEC will try to grab for both. Both are filthy rich schools.

UVA - Still think BIG 10. AAU status. Academics makes sense. Loaded school. New market. Culturally a fit. Would fit geographically.

Georgia Tech - high possibility of BIG 10. Academics make sense. AAU. Would sit in the middle in terms of endowment. Would eat into SEC territory. Popular pick for BIG 10. Geographically it's iffy, but I can still see it happening. Tech definitely won't go for BIG 12. That would be too much of a step down academically and maybe even financially. More likely candidate for big 10..hard to tell though.

NCSU & VT - might end up in SEC if Duke/UNC go to big 10. More likely to head to the big 12. Especially VT. It's not my first pick, but conference realignment is all about the money. Virginia and North Carolina would be new markets(two states much like Mizzou and TAMU).

My hopes?
UNC/Duke to SEC
UVA & Tech to BIG 10
FSU & Clemson to BIG 12.

RIP to the Big Least. ACC will feed of the remains of Big East to fill the voids. I use to believe ACC would go away, but I don't think that'll happen if they gobble up big east.

Last edited by ChefRamsey; 01-21-2013 at 05:06 PM..
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:06 PM
 
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Not going to happen. Tech essentially had a B1G invite and said thanks, but no thanks. Much of this doomsday, conference realignmet talk is being started out of BIG 12 circles when in fact, the Big 12 is the conference is the most in trouble. The ACC has stabilized at this point. Maryland left, but they got Louisville as a replacement which is a much better football and basketball school. I think the B1G really made a mistake with Rutgers and Maryland as both add very little athletically and while they are in big markets, they both lack the muscle to pull in high value cable TV money in their big media markets. The Big Ten Network can get $1 a month from basic cable subscribers in Columbus, Ohio and Omaha, Nebraska. That will not be true in Baltimore-DC and the NYC marketplaces. The Big Ten made a bad miscalculation here IMO and may actually see their TV revenue per school decline.

The ACC has a good shot to land ND in football at some point (when the ND - NBC deal expires). The TV revenue disparity that is being talked about is not as large as is being reported. If 4 conferences go to 16 teams, the Big 12 will be cannibalized first.

There is a lot of internet chatter on this stuff because it drives page views and gets fanbases fired up. However, there is actually very little news to report, but that won't stop various B-list internet sources, blogs and talk radio types from trying to make up a story when in fact there is nothing to report.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA..don't go to GSU
1,110 posts, read 1,345,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtcorndog View Post
Not going to happen. Tech essentially had a B1G invite and said thanks, but no thanks. Much of this doomsday, conference realignmet talk is being started out of BIG 12 circles when in fact, the Big 12 is the conference is the most in trouble. The ACC has stabilized at this point. Maryland left, but they got Louisville as a replacement which is a much better football and basketball school. I think the B1G really made a mistake with Rutgers and Maryland as both add very little athletically and while they are in big markets, they both lack the muscle to pull in high value cable TV money in their big media markets. The Big Ten Network can get $1 a month from basic cable subscribers in Columbus, Ohio and Omaha, Nebraska. That will not be true in Baltimore-DC and the NYC marketplaces. The Big Ten made a bad miscalculation here IMO and may actually see their TV revenue per school decline.

The ACC has a good shot to land ND in football at some point (when the ND - NBC deal expires). The TV revenue disparity that is being talked about is not as large as is being reported. If 4 conferences go to 16 teams, the Big 12 will be cannibalized first.

There is a lot of internet chatter on this stuff because it drives page views and gets fanbases fired up. However, there is actually very little news to report, but that won't stop various B-list internet sources, blogs and talk radio types from trying to make up a story when in fact there is nothing to report.
I would want to see Tech in the BIG 10 though. It'll be fresh, but it'll be it in terms of moving up the food chain. Can't go much higher than SEC/BIG 10. The thing is, big 10 IS going to expand. Delany has already said so. Big 12 is meeting next week. The dominos will fall, and there isn't any questioning of it. If ACC loses UVA, UNC, Duke etc. to BIG 10 and SEC counters, Tech should jump to BIG 10 before ACC starts to sway. ACC is going to get raided either way.

Don't agree about BIG 10 losing money. Money will only continue to flow in despite quality of ball. Rutgers may have been a poor move, would've rather seen BC. Why do you think Baltimore-DC and the NYC won't be profitable for BIG 10?
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChefRamsey View Post
I would want to see Tech in the BIG 10. The thing is, big 10 IS going to expand. Delany has already said so. Big 12 is meeting next week. The dominos will fall, and there isn't any questioning of it. If ACC loses UVA, UNC, Duke etc. to BIG 10 and SEC counters. Tech should jump to BIG 10 before ACC starts to sway.
Duke and UNC aren't ever leaving the ACC. They are the ACC and they wield ridiculous power over the league and have for 40 years. Your whole speculation is built upon a premise that is fundamentally illogical and beyond unlikely. The fact that that is the premise of your argument shows how little you really understand the conference structure.

The apocalyptic conference realignment talk has been going on for years now and so far nothing of consequence has happened. This is just typical off season garbage.

If it ever does go down, GT will have a seat in the B1G because of their media market alone. I still think the Big 12 would be the conference to be canibalized by the Pac 12 and SEC though. The Pac 12 can't expand without taking more Big 12 schools.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:15 PM
 
2,407 posts, read 2,694,377 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChefRamsey View Post
I would want to see Tech in the BIG 10 though. It'll be fresh, but it'll be it in terms of moving up the food chain. Can't go much higher than SEC/BIG 10. The thing is, big 10 IS going to expand. Delany has already said so. Big 12 is meeting next week. The dominos will fall, and there isn't any questioning of it. If ACC loses UVA, UNC, Duke etc. to BIG 10 and SEC counters, Tech should jump to BIG 10 before ACC starts to sway. ACC is going to get raided either way.

Don't agree about BIG 10 losing money. Money will only continue to flow in despite quality of ball. Rutgers may have been a poor move, would've rather seen BC. Why do you think Baltimore-DC and the NYC won't be profitable for BIG 10?
Do you understand the Big Ten Network's pricing model and how they generate their revenue? I'll answer your question, but I don't want to waste time going into it if you really aren't educated on the subject. I've spent a few years following this in great detail and did some research on it in my grad program. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but your posts so far show a lack of real understanding about the multiple forces at play in conference realignment.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:21 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA..don't go to GSU
1,110 posts, read 1,345,683 times
Reputation: 366
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtcorndog View Post
Duke and UNC aren't ever leaving the ACC. They are the ACC and they wield ridiculous power over the league and have for 40 years. Your whole speculation is built upon a premise that is fundamentally illogical and beyond unlikely. The fact that that is the premise of your argument shows how little you really understand the conference structure.

The apocalyptic conference realignment talk has been going on for years now and so far nothing of consequence has happened. This is just typical off season garbage.

If it ever does go down, GT will have a seat in the B1G because of their media market alone. I still think the Big 12 would be the conference to be canibalized by the Pac 12 and SEC though. The Pac 12 can't expand without taking more Big 12 schools.
Your lack of understanding of football economics is leading me to believe you're trying to play down the ACC's imminent trouble. Not at all uncommon of ACC fans. This is about money, not power. Do you really think UNC and Duke wouldn't jump at the chance to join BIG 10 or SEC? THE MONEY? Pac doesn't need to expand, they just want to play catch up. Pac's revenue model is incredible. So is BIG's. The pac is actually fine the way it is, and actually, there is talk going on about OK/UT packing up and head to the PAC. It won't happen because the Longhorn network is a God in the big 12.

I agree UNC, Duke are the backbones of the ACC. My entire thought process is centered around what the big 10 does. I believe the most likely thing to happen is big 10 takes UVA and one other team. That's what I believe, and I base everything else(all dominos) around this notion. Big 10 is expanding. We only need to know where.

Apocalyptic talk huh? Yeah look at the big east. The time of super conferences is ever more likely. Rutgers, Ville, Maryland, Mizzou, TAMU, NE these are all consequences bud. There is talk going on, because there are moves happening.

I also agree that BIG 12 is more likely to play with MWC and pac-12. Houston, SMU and BYU are on the map for them. Maybe they'll just take one of these safe players. BYU being the biggest question mark.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA..don't go to GSU
1,110 posts, read 1,345,683 times
Reputation: 366
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtcorndog View Post
Do you understand the Big Ten Network's pricing model and how they generate their revenue? I'll answer your question, but I don't want to waste time going into it if you really aren't educated on the subject. I've spent a few years following this in great detail and did some research on it in my grad program. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but your posts so far show a lack of real understanding about the multiple forces at play in conference realignment.
I do, but go ahead, make your point. Honestly, I anticipated my discussion would be with you more than anyone else on this board.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:31 PM
 
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Notre Dame is still a possibility for the B1G. They might panic and commit to the B1G as its becoming clear that the power conferences are the SEC and B1G. And I'd give the edge to the SEC as the most powerful conference. Really, UGA was so close to a national championship this past season. They just needed that touchdown against Alabama (came close) and then they'd face that paper tiger Notre Dame.

GT to the B1G? Maybe. Fits fine in every aspect except geography. High travel costs for GT, no close away games and the football will be frigid, plus the ACC has that $50 million exit fee which might make any team pause. If the SEC and B1G pick the ACC apart, I'm guessing the BIG 12 goes after the ACC for an east conference. But at that point, that $50 million would have to go away. Maryland is challenging it but I don't know on what grounds.

I'm just wondering, if this leads to super conferences SEC, B1G, BIG 12, ACC, and Big East, will GSU get pulled up to CUSA?
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA..don't go to GSU
1,110 posts, read 1,345,683 times
Reputation: 366
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathmanMathman View Post
Notre Dame is still a possibility for the B1G. They might panic and commit to the B1G as its becoming clear that the power conferences are the SEC and B1G. And I'd give the edge to the SEC as the most powerful conference. Really, UGA was so close to a national championship this past season. They just needed that touchdown against Alabama (came close) and then they'd face that paper tiger Notre Dame.

GT to the B1G? Maybe. Fits fine in every aspect except geography. High travel costs for GT, no close away games and the football will be frigid, plus the ACC has that $50 million exit fee which might make any team pause. If the SEC and B1G pick the ACC apart, I'm guessing the BIG 12 goes after the ACC for an east conference. But at that point, that $50 million would have to go away. Maryland is challenging it but I don't know on what grounds.

I'm just wondering, if this leads to super conferences SEC, B1G, BIG 12, ACC, and Big East, will GSU get pulled up to CUSA?
Maybe at that last part. We lost 2 teams to MWC. Tenn state and Florida Atlantic(culturally big rivals for us). It comes down to the money. Seeing the way GSU's football popularity has been going, it's unlikely. We played awfully this year. I think we jumped too soon to Sun Belt.

I do believe superconferences are here to stay. Especially after SEC and ACC finalize their own networks.
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Old 01-21-2013, 05:52 PM
 
7,112 posts, read 8,371,553 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChefRamsey View Post
Maybe at that last part. We lost 2 teams to MWC. Tenn state and Florida Atlantic(culturally big rivals for us). It comes down to the money. Seeing the way GSU's football popularity has been going, it's unlikely. We played awfully this year. I think we jumped too soon to Sun Belt.

I do believe superconferences are here to stay. Especially after SEC and ACC finalize their own networks.
If it's all about money and markets, CUSA might bite. I mean, they took UNC-Charlotte before it even has a football team. And if the dominoes fall soon, KSU won't have time to pitch itself as the smarter choice to the CUSA.
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