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Old 12-04-2014, 12:38 AM
 
Location: atlanta
3,966 posts, read 4,562,154 times
Reputation: 3212

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Quote:
Originally Posted by paris-on-ponce View Post
It won't. This tech boom is the last stop before the Singularity.
ooh, The Singularity...
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Old 12-04-2014, 09:28 PM
 
Location: atlanta
3,966 posts, read 4,562,154 times
Reputation: 3212
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
What's the singularity (other than a black hole's nucleus)?
it's essentially where computers get so smart that they decide to kill us all. it's sci-fi nonsense.
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Old 12-04-2014, 09:37 PM
 
913 posts, read 982,419 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryantm3 View Post
it's essentially where computers get so smart that they decide to kill us all. it's sci-fi nonsense.
No, its when computers are as smart as human or smarter
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Old 12-04-2014, 10:02 PM
 
Location: atlanta
3,966 posts, read 4,562,154 times
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for naysayers i'll break it down a little bit. essentially, this guy named moore came up with an idea in the 60s that processors would get 2 times as fast every two years, and they would be able to fit twice as many transistors on a single board every two years. this is called moore's law. so basically, computer power would grow exponentially.

believe it or not, the law has held true for a very long time. however, the first section of moore's law gave out some time in the last decade; they can't make processors any faster than they currently are because they overheat and melt.

the second part of moore's law is expected to give out by 2020 or 2025 for another practical reason— you can only fit so many transistors on a circuit board. transistors are now being placed on circuit boards only 14 atoms from each other. obviously, this trend cannot continue much longer because you can't get any closer to something than a single atom.

there are far out ideas like quantum computuing that would use the parts of an atom to compute, but the financial constraints to make a computer that complicated are so ridiculously high that it is unlikely to ever occur.

the current communications revolution is facing the same problems that the industrial revolution faced; it's simply too expensive and impractical to continue development, even if that development is probable. this is why people in the 1900s didn't have all these steampunk gadgets like people in the 1800s thought they would have.

however, the tech revolution or "bubble" is likely to continue for another 50 or so years despite these limitations, and that's due to lowering cost.

for an analogy, look at the industrial revolution. by the end of the 1800s, nearly all of the inventions that would define the industrial revolution had been made, but it wouldn't be until the 1950s that almost all americans would see the benefits of the revolution. during that time, manufacture became cheaper and more widespread to the point that things like cars and electricity were ubiquitous.

while it may seem like that now, it certainly isn't. in the next 50 years we will see computerization spread to everything, to the point where everyday objects will be computerized to an extent.

whatever will be possible with this revolution, we will know about by about 2020 or 2025. i think it has become clear enough already that computers will never be able to "be human" in the way that sci-fi movies project. what comes next is the decrease in cost of the technology we have already discovered, and its distribution throughout society. while 2065 will probably look incredibly advanced compared to us, i seriously doubt we will see anything like "the singularity" ever happen.
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Old 12-08-2014, 10:03 PM
 
Location: atlanta
3,966 posts, read 4,562,154 times
Reputation: 3212
wow, i'm getting a lot of reputation from that last post!
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Old 12-09-2014, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Johns Creek area
9,567 posts, read 8,636,278 times
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I hope I'm living on an island somewhere in solitude with my wife and pups by the time that singularity thingy happens!
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Old 01-06-2015, 01:17 AM
 
Location: Marietta, Georgia
178 posts, read 522,635 times
Reputation: 87
I think Moore's law could evolve. If technology finds a different way to develop transistors and processor make up that are resistant to overheating that could keep the first part held true. Carbon nanotubes are being looked at currently by IBM as a more heat resistant alternative.
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