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Old 12-04-2014, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Johns Creek area
9,585 posts, read 8,666,245 times
Reputation: 5087

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Interesting piece from CNNMoney: 10 hottest housing markets for 2015 - Dec. 4, 2014
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Old 12-05-2014, 01:08 AM
 
Location: N.C. for now... Atlanta future
1,243 posts, read 987,610 times
Reputation: 1285
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
You know that was highly interesting. It was shocking how far Atlanta fell during the real estate burst. It's just as shocking how fast it's recovering even though it was delayed for a few years. Dallas, Houston, etc. all doing well. It just seems you can't keep these sunbelt metros down for long. I did notice the warning light for Houston's economy (which is boosted by energy) and how falling energy prices might spell trouble for economic growth. Houston may well be undergoing an energy bubble similar to Atlanta's housing bubble.

I've always wanted an explanation for this, but no one ever came up with one. Atlanta has been undergoing gentrification since Inman Park first began to be revived. Everyone knows it's population dropped. I recall seeing Atlanta Regional Commission's 1990 population at 415,000, higher than the census' 394,000. That means the 2000 census of 416,000 wasn't much if true. When we thought it's population was booming in the 2000's, there really wasn't THAT much development. It was a lot, but highrises can hold so many. Smaller infill is needed also. Think about what went up in the 2000's. Museum tower, 12 Centennial tower, W Hotel residential, Spire, Aqua, Metropolis, Plaza Midtown, Mayfair tower II, Viewpoint, Paramount, Sovereign, Mandarin, Glenwood Park, some of Atlantic Station, plus some other single family homes, loft conversions, and complexes around town. Even Atlanta's public housing was replaced with better housing than before and gentrification has continued. Yet the 2010 census showed 420,000. With all that his going up and has gone up, you would be led to believe Atlanta had 1,000,000 people. Where is everyone?

Look at this map and click on the other cities too. Atlanta has an enormous amount of construction going on. Will it finally see significant growth?

Atlanta Developments - devmap.io
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Old 12-05-2014, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA
298 posts, read 284,508 times
Reputation: 348
@AtlantaisHot

At 2000, they put the population at roughly 421,323. Estimates had pegged Atlanta as high as 541,000 prior to the 2010 census, probably because of the influx of new residents and all the development going on (and there was a lot of development). What they didn't seemingly account for is the mass migration of people from the poorer west side neighborhoods. So while the east side neighborhoods were definitely booming, as well as Midtown and other areas, there wasn't a large net gain. The west side neighborhoods appear to be past the mass migration phase and in fact, many are seeing an influx of new residents. That, coupled with the continued densification and population of other in town neighborhoods, should allow Atlanta to see very real population gains. Simply look at the in town multifamily units delivered, note the vacancy rates, and you'll see large population gains.
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Old 12-05-2014, 08:24 AM
 
Location: ITP - City of Atlanta Proper
7,803 posts, read 11,759,530 times
Reputation: 5408
Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaIsHot View Post
I've always wanted an explanation for this, but no one ever came up with one. Atlanta has been undergoing gentrification since Inman Park first began to be revived. Everyone knows it's population dropped. I recall seeing Atlanta Regional Commission's 1990 population at 415,000, higher than the census' 394,000. That means the 2000 census of 416,000 wasn't much if true. When we thought it's population was booming in the 2000's, there really wasn't THAT much development. It was a lot, but highrises can hold so many. Smaller infill is needed also. Think about what went up in the 2000's. Museum tower, 12 Centennial tower, W Hotel residential, Spire, Aqua, Metropolis, Plaza Midtown, Mayfair tower II, Viewpoint, Paramount, Sovereign, Mandarin, Glenwood Park, some of Atlantic Station, plus some other single family homes, loft conversions, and complexes around town. Even Atlanta's public housing was replaced with better housing than before and gentrification has continued. Yet the 2010 census showed 420,000. With all that his going up and has gone up, you would be led to believe Atlanta had 1,000,000 people. Where is everyone?

Look at this map and click on the other cities too. Atlanta has an enormous amount of construction going on. Will it finally see significant growth?

Atlanta Developments - devmap.io
The prevailing thought in circles where an actual answer is sought after, the 2010 census was lackluster because there was a high amount of non response from the mailed questionnaires among certain demographics (mainly Black and immigrant). Responses in many neighborhoods were in the single digits.

Thanks to political pressure form Republicans in Congress, the very effective estimation calculation used in the 2000 census was thrown out in mid-2000s. What made things more confusing, the Bureau continued to use that very formula for their estimates but were required to remove it from the official count.

So what's the real population of Atlanta? I think it is safe to assume that it is ~500k, maybe as high as ~550k. There are really just that many people who have no interest in filling out a Census form.
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Old 12-05-2014, 09:55 AM
 
Location: NW Atlanta
5,010 posts, read 3,497,549 times
Reputation: 2653
Quote:
Originally Posted by waronxmas View Post
The prevailing thought in circles where an actual answer is sought after, the 2010 census was lackluster because there was a high amount of non response from the mailed questionnaires among certain demographics (mainly Black and immigrant). Responses in many neighborhoods were in the single digits.

Thanks to political pressure form Republicans in Congress, the very effective estimation calculation used in the 2000 census was thrown out in mid-2000s. What made things more confusing, the Bureau continued to use that very formula for their estimates but were required to remove it from the official count.

So what's the real population of Atlanta? I think it is safe to assume that it is ~500k, maybe as high as ~550k. There are really just that many people who have no interest in filling out a Census form.
I worked as an enumerator during the Census and was responsible for following up on non-responses (there were a lot), and we got most of the ones missed in the original count. The 420K count in 2010 may be a bit off, but there is no way the Census Bureau missed the mark by 100K people once the nonresponses were accounted for.
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Old 12-05-2014, 11:11 AM
 
Location: ITP - City of Atlanta Proper
7,803 posts, read 11,759,530 times
Reputation: 5408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gulch View Post
I worked as an enumerator during the Census and was responsible for following up on non-responses (there were a lot), and we got most of the ones missed in the original count. The 420K count in 2010 may be a bit off, but there is no way the Census Bureau missed the mark by 100K people once the nonresponses were accounted for.
While I'm sure you did your job well, but how well did everyone do their jobs. What percentage of nonresponses were responsibly followed up.

Here's a great colloquial story happened to me directly in 2010:

One day I decided to go out for a run on a Sunday afternoon. On the side walk in front of my building, which has a locked gate and a callbox with no doorman, was an enumerator with a clipboard just standing there looking confused. I asked her if she needed to get in the building and she goes "Yes! I need to follow up on some nonresponses from the Census but I couldn't figure out how to get in. I was ready to move on to the next one."

If I didn't so happen to come out of my building at that exact moment, she wouldn't have followed up. Further more, since it was Sunday afternoon, most people were out and about so chances are she would have marked the nonresponses as no one living there even though the building is completely full. Keep in mind, this is a nice building in the middle of Buckhead. How much effort did people put in to go in to a run down building in a not so nice neighborhood on the West or South sides? I'm thinking not a lot.

Realistically, I don't think it was as high as 100k. But in a city as large as Atlanta, 60,000 to 80,000 isn't out of the question.
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Old 12-05-2014, 12:09 PM
 
124 posts, read 114,951 times
Reputation: 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
Rosy forecasts on the housing market from Realtor.com? Totally unbiased source of information
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Old 12-05-2014, 12:27 PM
 
994 posts, read 1,113,168 times
Reputation: 1225
So what does this mean for all the people who allegedly want to be apartment dwellers indefinitely, with no desire to buy or live in a single-family home? Is that trend true or not?

Notice also that it references the Metro Atlanta area, not just the city itself.

Back when we were house-hunting, lots of owners were over-asking on the price because they were thousands under water on their mortgages. Others had to keep dropping or re-listing to get bites.

At the same time, those who weren't overpriced (and were in the areas we were looking) often were presented with multiple offers in a short period of time.

Cobb residents (at least what I'm hearing from people) who live in the better school districts (or near the new Braves stadium and KSU) are anticipating property values going up pretty progressively in the next few years.

Only time will tell.
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