Cobb/Gwinnett

[jsvh]

I prefer no tax incentives to private companies, but even still you got to consider what a poor deal the Braves was for Cobb:

For the price of the Braves hand-out, Cobb could have provided $20M incentives to five Mercedes type relocations (Even ignoring that often those incentives are just loans that are paid back), paid for 100% of the downtown streetcar, and covered CoA's handout to the New Atlanta stadium.

[sedimenjerry]

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

I think that for the most part, Gwinnett county is concerned with being a nice place to have an affordable house, visit parks, raise a family, go to dinner, movies, etc.

Very true and that's exactly what it is. Most of Gwinnett doesn't want to be an intown like place. Large portions of Gwinnett are still exurban/rural and some people want that. We get someone on here every once in a while looking for a place that actually has some open land but still has great schools and shopping nearby.

Originally Posted by Tarzanman

No one is being left behind yet. North Fulton (Roswell, Alpharetta) has arguably less mass transit than Cobb & Gwinett counties and they seem to be doing ok.

Agree. I mean is it really that much more convenient for someone in Milton to drive down 400 to N Springs than someone from Peachtree Corners to drive to Doraville? And so much development is along 400 in Roswell and Alpharetta. Well north of the N Springs station. You have to rely on busses to get to work up there which can be hit and miss. Peachtree Pkwy also has a lot of development despite being far from 400 and 85.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by Tarzanman

If you were to wave a magic wand and put an employment center in south Atlanta then yes... the rate at which the population density would rise certainly would threaten Gwinnett and Cobb, in my opinion.

I actually disagree a bit. I'd see this as helpful to Gwinnett and Cobb, especially with high-end development more likely to locate near the airport along I-285.

This is an issue for both Gwinnett and Cobb. They have both had troubles keeping land-values on the southern ends of the counties relevant. There is a growing population, but at a lower price point.

What happens is there is a highly sought after layer of housing in both counties that are away from older apartments, mostly single family homes, and have good schools... but an easy commute to in-county jobs. Then there is a layer past that where the in-county jobs begin to be sort of far away. Those aren't doing as well, but they both have I-20 or US78 that is an excellent connector to I-285 with only moderate levels of traffic.
That commute is a heck of alot easier than driving from any of the other areas north of Atlanta where you have to battle the worse traffic.

I'd love for these neighborhoods to be relevant again and would be perfect places for families with split commutes.

I think it would harm business development in places like Forsyth if anything. But I don't see that happening at a large rate yet.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by evannole

I know little about Gwinnett, but the urban/close-in parts of Cobb are hopping. The Atlanta Road corridor and downtown Marietta are seeing significant residential and commercial development, and the residential stuff is selling like hotcakes. We just bought new construction in downtown Marietta, and are really enjoying the vibrant feel and rapidly evolving restaurant scene. Our builder's agent's biggest complaint is that she has no inventory to show anyone. Nearly everything is under contract, including some lots that don't even have slabs poured yet.

As to including/not including the Braves stadium in your analysis, I think your thoughts there are misguided. Yes, Cobb gave them money, but the Braves wouldn't have selected the site if they didn't think that it was likely to draw fans. It's probably as close as they could get, practically speaking, to the center of the Braves fan base. (The true center would probably be at Perimeter, but there are no sufficiently large tracts of land there that they could have acquired at anything close to a reasonable cost. The Doraville GM plant was not an option, apparently. So, if the Braves wanted to move to the north side and stay basically ATP, I think they chose the best and perhaps only practical option.)

Even Cumberland Mall is hopping... when was the last time you saw Apple put a store in a depressed or declining area? Those guys do their homework. If they pick a site for a store, particularly when they already have a couple of stores in the same metro, you can be sure that they're confident that it's an area that is doing well and is likely to do even better.

Gwinnett and Cobb differ in their zoning and road development patterns. Gwinnett has spread out high-end offices much more using a corridor growth strategy. You can find the same suburban style office buildings at Indian Trail, Gwinnett, Place, Sugarloaf, and all the way up to Suwannee. The biggest cluster of offices isn't even at a freeway.

Cobb has much less going on between Cumberland and Kennesaw, compared to Gwinnett. However, they are leveraging their junction with I-285 to create more of a single node and that gives it more visibility.

The other oddities that set Gwinnett apart is we have far more warehouse space than anywhere else in the Metro area. There is a working class mixed in with out white collars. Gwinnett also has easier commuting access to the jobs popping up in Northpoint and in Johns Creek near McGinnis Ferry. There is eastward bent to the development and road system.

As for the Cobb Braves... I think the point the other poster was raising is of course the Braves made a decision that would be a good location, but it isn't/wasn't the only potential location. Cobb gave them a sweet heart deal and the county is financing most of the project. The other sites in Dekalb or Gwinnett were not offering such a thing and neither was the city.

It is pretty apparent if Cobb didn't give nearly $400m the Braves probably would have stayed put.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Cobb and Gwinnett have got to be cluing in that they are getting left behind without rail transit.

Bet Cobb will be wishing they spent those hundreds of millions on a transit line instead of a stadium in a few years.

I don't know if Cobb will have many regrets about spending that massive amount of money on the new stadium instead of transit.

For one, Cobb sees the acquisition of the Braves as a project that will spark a huge new wave of real estate development throughout the county, starting with the Cumberland area.

Cobb also likely does not regret spending that money on the stadium instead of transit because a large Republican-dominated county like Cobb knows that it has an overwhelming amount of pull within Georgia's Republican-dominated state government.

Cobb knows that because of the amount of pull that the county has in state government that state government will likely eventually bail the county out of any transportation issues that it may have.

With the way that the winds have blowing lately towards embracing transit in Georgia's traditionally long foolishly transit-averse state government, many in Cobb are probably also calculating that the new Braves stadium development (and the increased traffic that it will generate in an area that already struggles with traffic congestion) will likely push state government to eventually invest in transit in a large inner-suburban/urban county with limited road infrastructure like Cobb.

It should also be noted that Gwinnett is a large Republican-dominated county that has just as much (if not more) pull in Georgia's Republican-dominated state government than Cobb County.

If a county as large and as dominant as Cobb can get state government to invest in transit on its behalf, then a large as large and as dominant as Gwinnett will likely get state government to invest in transit on its behalf as well.

(...In fact, Gwinnett's traffic issues may be more visible than Cobb's traffic issues in many respects because Georgia's current Governor and Lt. Governor both hail from Hall County and both frequently must traverse I-85 Northeast during peak hours and see and are more intimately familiar with the traffic issues on I-85 in Gwinnett than they might be with the traffic issues in Cobb.)

(...There's also the fact that Georgia's current sitting Attorney General and probable candidate for Governor in 2018, Sam Olens, hails from Cobb County and is and has been a big proponent of a regional transit system for a very long time.)

In any case, as soon as it becomes apparent that the lack of transit is hampering economic development efforts in large and politically dominant counties like Cobb and Gwinnett, the state government that the two counties dominate will waste no time in moving to act on their behalf to extend state-funded transit service out to those two politically crucial counties.

[jsvh]

I am not sure I believe that the Braves are part of some diabolical master plan at this point for Cobb to get transit. I think we will see trains pulling into Gwinnett before Cobb.

And Cobb seems to be getting left behind in this wave of development, so I don't think that has worked as well as hoped either.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by jsvh

I am not sure I believe that the Braves are part of some diabolical master plan at this point for Cobb to get transit. I think we will see trains pulling into Gwinnett before Cobb.

And Cobb seems to be getting left behind in this wave of development, so I don't think that has worked as well as hoped either.

Well there have been multiple announcements of development projects and business relocations that have been driven by the new Braves stadium project.

Though with the lack of the type of high-capacity rail transit link that Perimeter Center possesses, the biggest development and business relocation announcements by far have been in the Perimeter Center area.

The business community in Cobb has actually wanted high-capacity transit service in the county for nearly 25 years....This is evidenced by their Cobb Parkway monorail proposals of the 1990's and their Cobb Parkway light rail and bus rapid transit proposals of the 2000's and 2010's.

The Cobb business community's biggest problem is that they seem to have absolutely no idea of how to pay for the high level of transit service that they have desired for a long time.

The Cobb business community particularly seems to have no idea of how pay for transit without asking transit-averse and tax-averse Cobb County residents to vote to raise their own taxes to fund a mode of transportation that they dislike.....A mode of transportation that the Cobb business community desperately needs to keep the county economically viable in an era when access to transit continues to increase in importance in the real estate marketplace.

[JMatl]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

I don't know if Cobb will have many regrets about spending that massive amount of money on the new stadium instead of transit.

For one, Cobb sees the acquisition of the Braves as a project that will spark a huge new wave of real estate development throughout the county, starting with the Cumberland area.

Cobb also likely does not regret spending that money on the stadium instead of transit because a large Republican-dominated county like Cobb knows that it has an overwhelming amount of pull within Georgia's Republican-dominated state government.

Cobb knows that because of the amount of pull that the county has in state government that state government will likely eventually bail the county out of any transportation issues that it may have.

With the way that the winds have blowing lately towards embracing transit in Georgia's traditionally long foolishly transit-averse state government, many in Cobb are probably also calculating that the new Braves stadium development (and the increased traffic that it will generate in an area that already struggles with traffic congestion) will likely push state government to eventually invest in transit in a large inner-suburban/urban county with limited road infrastructure like Cobb.

It should also be noted that Gwinnett is a large Republican-dominated county that has just as much (if not more) pull in Georgia's Republican-dominated state government than Cobb County.

If a county as large and as dominant as Cobb can get state government to invest in transit on its behalf, then a large as large and as dominant as Gwinnett will likely get state government to invest in transit on its behalf as well.

(...In fact, Gwinnett's traffic issues may be more visible than Cobb's traffic issues in many respects because Georgia's current Governor and Lt. Governor both hail from Hall County and both frequently must traverse I-85 Northeast during peak hours and see and are more intimately familiar with the traffic issues on I-85 in Gwinnett than they might be with the traffic issues in Cobb.)

(...There's also the fact that Georgia's current sitting Attorney General and probable candidate for Governor in 2018, Sam Olens, hails from Cobb County and is and has been a big proponent of a regional transit system for a very long time.)

In any case, as soon as it becomes apparent that the lack of transit is hampering economic development efforts in large and politically dominant counties like Cobb and Gwinnett, the state government that the two counties dominate will waste no time in moving to act on their behalf to extend state-funded transit service out to those two politically crucial counties.

Bingo, B2R! Your insight continues to impress.

I totally agree. The State will make a move when the pressure from the business community in Cobb/Gwinnett becomes too loud. As you seem to, I believe it is already happening.

I feel that the recent posturing by very unlikely people in state government in even bringing up transit is huge. We are on the verge of some very interesting developments.

[ATLTJL]

Good points, but a few questions.

1) Suppose you are correct and the state decides to invest in transit for Cobb/Gwinnett. Can we expect the state to push through approvals and construction faster than MARTA could? What would the timeline look like between when the decision is made and the first train rolls?

2) If this happens, what becomes of MARTA? How will the state be able to justify investing in Cobb and Gwinnett, but not Fulton or Dekalb? Especially since these systems would definitely connect to MARTA, so there would have to be some kind of fare sharing system.

3) If this plays out, can the state build mass transit without a public referendum? If so, do you think opposition to mass transit has gotten weak enough so leaders won't have to fear losing votes over it?

4) Would it be possible that Cobb and Gwinnett could get more robust systems than MARTA? I'm thinking maybe instead of only spurs that follow I-75 and I-85, they could also build some east west connectivity to hit East Cobb, Snellville, etc. Maybe instead of using just Lindbergh as a transfer point, these new tracks could also wrap around to connect at another hub in Alpharetta, effectively making a pseudo outer perimeter with mass transit. Then each suburban station could have zip cars or Citibikes for last mile transportation. Pie in the sky?

[Born 2 Roll]

These are some good comments and some good questions.

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

Good points, but a few questions.

1) Suppose you are correct and the state decides to invest in transit for Cobb/Gwinnett. Can we expect the state to push through approvals and construction faster than MARTA could?

Most likely so....Conservative suburban and exurban state government officials would likely have much more pull and much more of an ability to get things done in outlying areas dominated by conservative local political structures like Cobb and Gwinnett (and beyond) than would an agency like MARTA which is controlled by liberal urbanites.

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

What would the timeline look like between when the decision is made and the first train rolls?

The state would probably get the first trains rolling on an expanded regional transit system within 10-15 or so after the decision was made to expand rail transit lines.

Though, in the meantime, the state would fill the pressing need for regional transit service in outlying areas by expanding the existing GRTA Xpress regional express commuter bus system and operating regional commuter bus service along future rail transit corridors until the future rail transit lines become operational....Similar to how MARTA expanded its bus network in advance of the expansion of its rail transit network in the early years of its agency.

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

2) If this happens, what becomes of MARTA? How will the state be able to justify investing in Cobb and Gwinnett, but not Fulton or Dekalb? Especially since these systems would definitely connect to MARTA, so there would have to be some kind of fare sharing system.

For a long time talk has been swirling around the Gold Dome (the Georgia State Capitol) of the state one day taking control of MARTA (long a 2-county agency, now a 3-county agency) and folding it into GRTA (a state-controlled regional transit agency).

Former Governor Roy Barnes started GRTA back in the late 1990's (when Metro Atlanta's traffic congestion problems REALLY started to flare up) with the intention of the state one day taking control of MARTA and folding it into GRTA to get rail transit service expanded into the suburbs and exurbs under the state banner....Something that might be much more acceptable to Metro Atlanta's traditionally transit-averse suburbanites and exurbanites.

But Governor Barnes' plan to have the state takeover MARTA and fold it into GRTA was derailed when he lost his bid for re-election in 2002 and Georgia Republicans took control of state government for the first time since Reconstruction.

Since taking power in 2002 and steadily growing to take complete control of state government away from the long-ruling GA Democrats, the current Republican supermajority in Georgia government has to adjust to being in power and has had to recognize that they (and ONLY they) are the ones in charge of dealing with the state's problems.....The Georgia Republicans have had to recognize that can't blame the problems on Georgia Democrats anymore because GA Democrats no longer have any control over state government.

(...Georgia Republicans control all statewide offices and control about 67% (a supermajority) of seats in the Georgia Legislature, so it is up to them (and only them) to solve the state's problems.)

(...Georgia Republicans have also had to get over a celebratory phase of partying and wildly celebrating their total takeover of state government after about 130-plus years of total and complete Democratic domination of the state's entire political structure.)

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

3) If this plays out, can the state build mass transit without a public referendum?

If the State of Georgia can find a way to fund regional transit service without county-by-county sales tax revenues, the state can build rail transit without a public referendum....Similar to the way that state government currently operates the GRTA Xpress regional commuter bus system without voter referendum-approved sales tax revenues).

And at this point, the state has no choice but to find a way to build and expand mass transit without a public referendum because severe traffic congestion issues are starting to have a negative impact on the quality-of-life and the economic competitiveness.

Many large corporations are continuing to express their concerns to state leaders about the severe traffic congestion and the lack of transit options in a large major metro region with a very limited road network like Atlanta.

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

If so, do you think opposition to mass transit has gotten weak enough so leaders won't have to fear losing votes over it?

As evidenced by Clayton County's recent embrace of MARTA expansion into its county, opposition to mass transit outside of Fulton and DeKalb counties has weakened....But still not quite enough for state leaders to fear losing votes over it.

Instead, what is motivating state leaders move towards mass transit is that Atlanta's regional traffic problems have gotten so bad that state leaders now seem to fear the continuing domino effects of doing nothing worse than they still fear losing votes over embracing mass transit in outlying suburban and exurban areas.

(...Republican state leaders fear the domino effects of doing nothing like decreased economic competitiveness, increasing public anger over traffic gridlock, giving a political opening to the politically-dormant Georgia Democrats in a state where the demographics are changing in the Dems' favor, etc.)

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

4) Would it be possible that Cobb and Gwinnett could get more robust systems than MARTA? I'm thinking maybe instead of only spurs that follow I-75 and I-85, they could also build some east west connectivity to hit East Cobb, Snellville, etc. Maybe instead of using just Lindbergh as a transfer point, these new tracks could also wrap around to connect at another hub in Alpharetta, effectively making a pseudo outer perimeter with mass transit. Then each suburban station could have zip cars or Citibikes for last mile transportation. Pie in the sky?

With the State of Georgia in recent years seeming to signal that it desires to take control of MARTA, fold it into GRTA and expand the rail network under the GRTA banner (at the behest of profit-hungry business interests on the Northside of the Atlanta region), it would be much more likely that the entire Northside of the Atlanta region north of the I-20 would get a much more robust transit system after the state were to take control of MARTA's rail transit network, fold it into GRTA and expand it under the GRTA banner.

Some key things to keep in mind is that North Fulton County is part of the Northside and the metro area that has been the most vocal about wanting the state to act to take control of the MARTA rail network and expand it into North Fulton and the Northern suburbs under a state banner.

The Northsiders (North Fulton, Cobb and Gwinnett business interests) desperately want rail transit to be expanded up the GA 400 North, I-75 Northwest and I-85 Northeast corridors so that their areas can have direct rail transit links to the world-leading Atlanta Airport by way of the lucrative convention and tourism business in Downtown Atlanta.

The Northsiders also want an east-west cross-regional rail transit connection along the Top End of the I-285 Perimeter between Cumberland and Doraville by way of the Perimeter Center area (...with likely extensions of that cross-regional transit connection up the I-75 NW and I-85 NE corridors and beyond).

North Fulton/North DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett business interests know that they can get the transit upgrades and expansions that they so desire because they know that the Buckhead community will support a Northside power play for control of MARTA's rail transit network by way of state government.

North Fulton/North DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett business interests know that a highly-influential conservative and affluent Buckhead community will always side with their highly-influential peers in the Northern suburbs instead of the liberal urban interests that are dominant south of I-20.

North Fulton/North DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett business interests know that the powerful Buckhead community will support their power play for control of MARTA's rail network because they know Buckhead would stand to gain a lot if rail transit service is expanded further out the GA 400 North and I-85 Northeast corridors into North Fulton and Gwinnett counties and beyond.