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no doubt. I have always wondered how many actual families there are where someone is long-commuting to NYC and someone else in the family is long-commuting into Philly.
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77
That seems to be more of a concern, especially when you have a good number of shared outer suburbs between Philly and NYC and many are lumped in with NYC on a technicality, such as Trenton, NJ.
A fair amount of people do that commute of Philly-NYC every single day....ppl will work in NYC for the $$$ and live in Philly for the cost of living...this is what has to be understood...the transit options between these two cities are very very great compared to a lot of other cities. I've seen couples who live in NJ one works in Manhattan and the other works in Philly. That's how a lot of people do. I was one of them not every day but maybe twice a week.
Far as MSA , CSA 's people up here do not worry about that...I live here Us Philly people don't worry about that. I think we are secure and have more to worry about then MSA Rankings. And The Jersey suburbs do overlap in the area..it always has a lot of confusion and questions and debate...yet both areas get both Television stations (ABC,CBS,FOX,NBC) .....Trenton is apart of the NY Metro Area but its only 38 Miles away from Philadelphia (Center City)
Population wise...the region may be slipping in ranks but the population here was already established years ago...so its still growing but at a slower pace but funny thing a article came out today and a lot of NY'ers are leaving their metro area for Philly's Metro area. Slowly but surely our population is increasing.
Next month (March) they release the new MSA and CSA figures for 2015. I'm pretty stoked for this one, obviously, for a plethora of reasons because this census update will be the biggest one until the census 2020 is accounted for, in my personal opinion. The reason for that is because think of 2015 as the report card, its the halfway mark of the decade, and will tell where each city is heading into the longterm future.
2015 MSA numbers will favor Washington DC surpassing Philadelphia. This is almost a formality now, a done deal. We just wait until the official release to make it official but have seen this coming for years.
An additional 1-2 years will have the Miami MSA moving ahead of Philadelphia as well, so either the 2016 census estimates or the 2017 census estimates will reveal Miami taking 7th over Philadelphia.
This brings us to Atlanta. Atlanta currently occupies 9th, which is the spot just behind the aforementioned cities and the spot ahead of the MSAs that are currently all in the 4 millions, starting with Boston.
My prediction is that by 2019 the Atlanta MSA will move up a spot to 8th, up from 9th, after displacing Philadelphia altogether. Again, to remind posters here, Philadelphia started off the decade in 2010 sitting in 5th place, only 4 years removed from being 4th, but in 2011 it was surpassed by Houston, which overtook 5th. The region has been in a downward tailspin since in the rankings and will continue to be so as nothing in its previous 46 year history suggests this area will be growing competitively more than 300,000 a decade anytime soon. Even that number is too high now, as the region only adds less than 15,000 people a year now (putting it on pace for 150,000, at most 200,000 for 10 years).
On CSA, the matter is even clearer. Today the Atlanta CSA sits in 11th place, just barely outside of the Top 10. To get into the Top 10 it will have to surpass and replace somewhere to do so. That somewhere that it needs to pass is increasingly clear too. It is the same place the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex CSA surpassed in 2012. It is the same place that by 2019, Houston CSA will surpass. That place is Philadelphia. The Miami CSA is growing exponentially faster than Philadelphia and has been doing that consistently for 116 years now. It is poised to surpass Philadelphia and take the 9th spot 3-4 years after Houston surpasses Philadelphia, so around 2023. That sets Atlanta CSA up to surpass Philadelphia 2-3 years after Miami CSA has. That will put Atlanta CSA in the Top 10 most populous CSAs in the United States for the first time in its history and it will be the first time EVER that Philadelphia is dropped from a Top 10 population list.
The CSA lists are a foreshadowment of things to come for Philadelphia unfortunately. By City, by MSA, by CSA, by UA-UA, by UN-UA and also by DMA, the region will be surpassed several times on over in the coming years and decades. In all of those measures except for perhaps US-UA and DMA, the region will more than likely fall out of the Top 10. This is even true at the City level, where several cities such as San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, Fort Worth may all annex more population into their cities (all of them aside from El Paso have publicly made it known they are) because TX is changing annexation laws in 2018 to make it harder to annex (so cities are trying to get it all in as soon as they can right now). Plus Phoenix, Dallas, and San Diego are all poised to naturally pass Philadelphia even without annexation. San Jose is a wildcard there.
Anyhow, the future looks bright for Atlanta. Whether by City, MSA, CSA, US-UA, UN-UA, DMA or other metrics for size, the regions stature will continue to climb with explosive population growth. Unfortunately it will come at the expense of other cities, but that is their problem for not being competitive and allowing themselves to be surpassed not just by one place, but by several. Places that get surpassed have nowhere to blame but themselves for allowing it to happen. Becoming less competitive also entails incapable of drawing new populations of people, be it regionally through domestic migration or even migration from all over the country and immigration from all over the world. Detroit didn't ask to be dropped out of the Top 10, it just happened and we have come to reshape our expectations to be a bit lower for Detroit since. It will also happen for Philadelphia.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 02-07-2016 at 12:38 PM..
Too bad Atlanta won't get Philly's infrastructure as well. I'd rather see Atlanta have more robust road/transportation infrastructure and more average/above average population growth myself.
I also don't think we should equate growth itself with competitiveness. As fast as Philly is falling down the population rankings, Boston will be falling even faster yet it remains a highly competitive metro.
Too bad Atlanta won't get Philly's infrastructure as well. I'd rather see Atlanta have more robust road/transportation infrastructure and more average/above average population growth myself.
I also don't think we should equate growth itself with competitiveness. As fast as Philly is falling down the population rankings, Boston will be falling even faster yet it remains a highly competitive metro.
Our urban infrastructure is shaping up pretty nice, we don't need to be Philly, we need to be Atlanta.
Our urban infrastructure is shaping up pretty nice, we don't need to be Philly, we need to be Atlanta.
I think he was referring to rail transit and commuter rail, and the ability to have different options. We should copy their infrastructure in rail transit options.
Too bad Atlanta won't get Philly's infrastructure as well. I'd rather see Atlanta have more robust road/transportation infrastructure and more average/above average population growth myself.
Well yeah naturally but this has nothing to do with my post. My post is about population growth and the rankings associated with it specifically.
Naturally Philadelphia has better infrastructure. The region actually has commuter rail, Atlanta (and Houston) for example do not. The region also has light rail, heavy rail, streetcars too.
However we cannot sit here and say "I prefer to have such and such growth". I hate to break it to people like that but you're getting growth regardless of how much you want or don't want, you get no say in that, and neither does anyone else on City-Data. That's a mechanism that's in place and there's nothing that can be done about it. I'm just reporting on that since I follow trends and trends have Atlanta taking the 8th spot in just a couple of years from now. It isn't personal, is a objective fact.
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Originally Posted by Mutiny77
I also don't think we should equate growth itself with competitiveness. As fast as Philly is falling down the population rankings, Boston will be falling even faster yet it remains a highly competitive metro.
The only reason Philadelphia is still in the Top 10 today in terms of importance is because it still has the size. Like firms that do the competitiveness rankings show (CitiGroup, Brookings Institution, Newgeography, CityLabs, A.T. Kearney, P.J. Taylor), they don't think much about Philadelphia or for it, seeing as how many of them favor places much smaller than it.
Now imagine what actually happens as Seattle, Denver, Phoenix and the like actually pull closer to Philadelphia's size or surpass it? Philadelphia's economy is still large, its 9th right now but Boston is passing it next year (despite being the smaller MSA) and other areas will pull into its territory as well.
The reason Boston is competitive is because it is able to ATTRACT capital and people from overseas. It gets nearly twice the immigrants of Philadelphia despite being 1.5 million smaller as an MSA. It also pulls in foreign investment and interest. Philadelphia does not for a place of its size. Philadelphia has schools and a healthcare industry though it isn't above the large city pack in research and development nor does it pull the investments of Boston's schools. If it wasn't for its already large size, Philadelphia wouldn't be competitive today.
I'm not saying it is an irrelevant city at all, it is still pretty important and still very large, but it will be moving down the list and that is a fact.
I think he was referring to rail transit and commuter rail, and the ability to have different options. We should copy their infrastructure in rail transit options.
Precisely, and a more comprehensive road network (although that's more unlikely to happen ironically).
The only thing holding Atlanta back from being #4 is the rail transit. The urban density is coming along nicely along with population and job growth. The only thing holding the city back now is an expansion of Marta to the suburbs.
Well yeah naturally but this has nothing to do with my post. My post is about population growth and the rankings associated with it specifically.
Naturally Philadelphia has better infrastructure. The region actually has commuter rail, Atlanta (and Houston) for example do not. The region also has light rail, heavy rail, streetcars too.
However we cannot sit here and say "I prefer to have such and such growth". I hate to break it to people like that but you're getting growth regardless of how much you want or don't want, you get no say in that, and neither does anyone else on City-Data. That's a mechanism that's in place and there's nothing that can be done about it. I'm just reporting on that since I follow trends and trends have Atlanta taking the 8th spot in just a couple of years from now. It isn't personal, is a objective fact.
Assuming that some folks on C-D aren't actually Atlanta-area decision makers, you're right but growth doesn't happen in a vacuum. At this point in time, rampant growth is just more of a challenge for metro Atlanta so topics about growth naturally spur discussion about those related issues.
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The only reason Philadelphia is still in the Top 10 today in terms of importance is because it still has the size. Like firms that do the competitiveness rankings show (CitiGroup, Brookings Institution, Newgeography, CityLabs, A.T. Kearney, P.J. Taylor), they don't think much about Philadelphia or for it, seeing as how many of them favor places much smaller than it.
Now imagine what actually happens as Seattle, Denver, Phoenix and the like actually pull closer to Philadelphia's size or surpass it? Philadelphia's economy is still large, its 9th right now but Boston is passing it next year (despite being the smaller MSA) and other areas will pull into its territory as well.
Keeping Atlanta in focus here, this is another issue that has to be addressed as the region lags a bit in terms of economic output relative to its size when compared to peer metros (Philadelphia included). For instance, you created a post in the general forum about the 12 U.S. metros with the largest clusters of high net worth individuals; Philly, Boston, Houston, Dallas, and Seattle are all in the number to the exclusion of Atlanta, despite being a top 12 metro by population. Will that change as it continues to grow? That remains to be seen, but it is indeed a related issue and worthy of consideration within this context.
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The reason Boston is competitive is because it is able to ATTRACT capital and people from overseas. It gets nearly twice the immigrants of Philadelphia despite being 1.5 million smaller as an MSA. It also pulls in foreign investment and interest. Philadelphia does not for a place of its size. Philadelphia has schools and a healthcare industry though it isn't above the large city pack in research and development nor does it pull the investments of Boston's schools. If it wasn't for its already large size, Philadelphia wouldn't be competitive today.
I'm not saying it is an irrelevant city at all, it is still pretty important and still very large, but it will be moving down the list and that is a fact.
I'm well aware of Boston's advantages when it comes to overall competitiveness, but I was simply saying that you can't tie growth alone to competitiveness.
I can careless about the population count. Atlanta just needs more safe and affordable housing near Marta. It has some, it just needs more.
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