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Old 05-06-2016, 10:37 AM
 
1,704 posts, read 875,679 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cqholt View Post
Wait till the fatalities start adding up and people try and sue the car makers. Also, how will driverless cars deal with peds and cyclists? I do not see it catching on until the technology is 110% proven.
With facial recognition, etc. I think they've got that. Google has been successfully running autonomous cars. As for expense, maybe Uber and Lyft will be the first wave and can provide access. As the empirical data increases, autonomous cars will just get better and better.
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Old 05-06-2016, 11:04 AM
 
4,270 posts, read 2,857,495 times
Reputation: 2816
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsvh View Post
This Self-Driving Car Just Completed a 1,500-Mile Journey Through Mexico



But honestly, we they don't need to know how to handle every warehouse parking lot and dirt road to be useful. Just limit them to roads that have already been scanned by a google maps vehicle which is 99% of roads and will cover 99.9% of uses needed. I will walk across that warehouse parking lot myself.
Great. So, again I ask...will I be able to take over when I want/need to, or will I be relegated to the car stopping 1/2 mile from my stage so that I can traverse the parking lot with my heavy equipment? When we come home to our gated neighborhood which has not been mapped by a Google car, do we just have to abandon the car out front and walk in?
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Old 05-06-2016, 12:08 PM
 
9,959 posts, read 6,959,813 times
Reputation: 3040
Quote:
Originally Posted by samiwas1 View Post
Great. So, again I ask...will I be able to take over when I want/need to, or will I be relegated to the car stopping 1/2 mile from my stage so that I can traverse the parking lot with my heavy equipment? When we come home to our gated neighborhood which has not been mapped by a Google car, do we just have to abandon the car out front and walk in?
No, the liability for human driver would not be worth it. It's like if taxis today had a second steering wheel in the back passengers could grab at any time. All you will get is a emergency stop button like an elevator.

Letting Go Of The Wheel: How Google Is Easing People Into Self-Driving Cars : NPR

In the short term if you have one of the 0.01% of cases that a self-driving car cannot handle then you will need to pay extra for a human driver or to rent a car.

In the long term, things will be built to ensure easy access from self-driving-taxis. But there will always be the 0.0001% of cases that need a special operator and that is fine. But you will probably have to go through special permitting, maybe even closing the street to allow the human driver to handle those rare future cases that self-driving-cars can't.

That will not stop mass adoption of self-driving cars. In fact, it will probably accelerate it.
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Old 05-06-2016, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,319 posts, read 21,959,143 times
Reputation: 3853
Highway driving isn't the same as urban driving with heavy traffic. Very different pathfinding and collision avoidance scenarios.

Quote:
But honestly, we they don't need to know how to handle every warehouse parking lot and dirt road to be useful. Just limit them to roads that have already been scanned by a google maps vehicle which is 99% of roads and will cover 99.9% of uses needed. I will walk across that warehouse parking lot myself.
You have far more faith in software than I do.
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Old 05-06-2016, 04:36 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,319 posts, read 21,959,143 times
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Here's another article. I am personally quite interested in seeing how well prototypes do.

Lyft and GM will put self-driving taxis on the road within a year | PCWorld
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Old 05-06-2016, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Smyrna, GA
145 posts, read 119,634 times
Reputation: 135
Ľ Transportation Outlook: 2025 to 2050 Navigant Research

Listened to a podcast which discussed this just recently released report. Some interesting points...
- Do not expect to see a meaningful shift to automated cars until closer to 2040
- Likely will be constrained to urban centers, eventually leading to downtowns becoming automated driving only zones
- Suburban and Rural area would likely still allow for driving cars

Thinking at a more macro level, one realistically would tie automated cars with electric car tech. Most of the mass of electric cars comes from the weight of the batteries. If you want to go farther or longer, you would need bigger batts, and more money. The economics really keep them limited to short distances. Also, consider these cars would be running 15-20 hours a day versus a typical commuter driving for two hours.

An immediate and large scale transition to electric/autonomous cars would put a higher peak load on the electrical grid, likely driving up costs. That alone, plus the higher breakeven point (as compared to driving gas motored vehicles) challenges the idea that autonomous driving will be available soon. I will likely get my 3D printer from Amazon (Instant-Prime Delivery) before autonomous driving becomes a realistic option for transit.

Let's not forget, our electrical grid is about as old as current automobile technology. Meaning, we would need to invest a ton of money in upgrading the backbone for this so-called autonomous driving utopia.
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Old 05-07-2016, 12:45 PM
 
4,270 posts, read 2,857,495 times
Reputation: 2816
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsvh View Post
No, the liability for human driver would not be worth it. It's like if taxis today had a second steering wheel in the back passengers could grab at any time. All you will get is a emergency stop button like an elevator.

Letting Go Of The Wheel: How Google Is Easing People Into Self-Driving Cars : NPR

In the short term if you have one of the 0.01% of cases that a self-driving car cannot handle then you will need to pay extra for a human driver or to rent a car.

In the long term, things will be built to ensure easy access from self-driving-taxis. But there will always be the 0.0001% of cases that need a special operator and that is fine. But you will probably have to go through special permitting, maybe even closing the street to allow the human driver to handle those rare future cases that self-driving-cars can't.

That will not stop mass adoption of self-driving cars. In fact, it will probably accelerate it.
Thankfully, I will probably be long-dead before this crap takes place. I have no desire to be totally at the whim of a computer with no ability whatsoever to take over if/when needed. "Close down the street" for the human driver? Exactly how bad do you think human drivers are?

So, only 1/1,000,000 car trips are "special cases"? So, only about 200 people per day nationwide take a car in such a way that is not easily defined into a computer? It also sounds like the days of being able to go house hunting by just driving around neighborhoods (which my wife and I do multiple times per month) will be over. Must I punch in specific addresses for each and every trip? If I see a place I'd rather have lunch while driving, I now have to go in and re-enter a new address?

Who is maintaining all of these millions of cars? Where do they go at night? Massive parking garages somewhere? I assume I can call a specific car that carry the gear I have to take to work with me, and hope that it's available when I need it?

Yeah, count me out. Self driving cars with no takeover abilities are fine for the people who only go to specific places every day and for very general use. Yeah, they'll be able to handle a lot of cases. But, some of us live a little more liberally. I think it will be a long, LONG time before human-driven cars are out of the picture. Odd how airplanes have had autopilot for many years and still have not one, but two pilots at the ready.
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Old 05-07-2016, 01:03 PM
 
4,270 posts, read 2,857,495 times
Reputation: 2816
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcsteiner View Post
You have far more faith in software than I do.
Indeed. I guess I'm just special, but I spend quite a bit of my time having to go onto weird roads and maneuver soundstage and warehouse lots to get to tv/film shooting locations with my equipment. jsvh may not mind lugging 100 pounds of expensive gear 1/4-1/2 a mile across a gravel road in the rain, but that's not what I want to be a part of. Let the car drive me there, then let me take over upon arrival so that I can navigate to exactly where I need to drop off. I hardly think I'm an extremely special case.
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Old 05-07-2016, 01:27 PM
 
28,207 posts, read 24,809,955 times
Reputation: 9576
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsvh View Post
No, the liability for human driver would not be worth it. It's like if taxis today had a second steering wheel in the back passengers could grab at any time. All you will get is a emergency stop button like an elevator.

Letting Go Of The Wheel: How Google Is Easing People Into Self-Driving Cars : NPR

In the short term if you have one of the 0.01% of cases that a self-driving car cannot handle then you will need to pay extra for a human driver or to rent a car.

In the long term, things will be built to ensure easy access from self-driving-taxis. But there will always be the 0.0001% of cases that need a special operator and that is fine. But you will probably have to go through special permitting, maybe even closing the street to allow the human driver to handle those rare future cases that self-driving-cars can't.

That will not stop mass adoption of self-driving cars. In fact, it will probably accelerate it.
I doubt that Trump will approve all this. It's another hit on the working man, turning jobs over to robots.
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