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Old 09-20-2015, 08:19 PM
 
Location: West Cobb (formerly Vinings)
3,615 posts, read 6,320,431 times
Reputation: 814

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Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
Its called realism.

It may well improve, but its not going to transform with a mass of new homes and redevelopment. Maybe you get more apartment complexes, primarily near MARTA. But its not going to be the "next big thing." Change is gradual. And it tends to creep from existing good areas, not jump all over the place. Developers take risks, but not outrageous risks.
To add to that, it's just going be the same old stuff happening up in Woodstock, West Cobb, Cumming, etc, at a much lower price point and a similar rate of development. These kinds of things already happened in Smyrna, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Marietta and others decades ago. Those are the places really transforming now, since they are heavily established.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tryska View Post
What's funny is that in my 4 block neighborhood, there are already 3 new infill developer homes, and a custom home going up across the street. In another neighborhood adequately covered by several agents, homes are listed and under contract to well-qualified people within the week. On the other side of town by Camp Creek a whole slew of market rate garden apartments are almost (if not fully) completed online behind the MarketPlace.

Add to that 2 TOD projects, a major GDOT streetscaping project along Main, new commercial and hospitality projects, a new mellow mushroom, along with other new restaurants that have moved in to existing spaces, I would say you are making a lot of assumptions on what you "think" will happen, as opposed to what is ALREADY happening.
I'm an investor on the side and own property in the area you are talking about. I live in the Northern metro. Things are happening all over the metro, so of course you are seeing changes around you. That doesn't make what's happening around you the "next big thing". It means your area is not being left behind. It's probably a better investment in the South metro close in to Atlanta (Camp Creek, Cascade, etc) than North metro since there is a lot more room for price growth for those that are patient and have a lot of time. People buying in the North metro are there for a reason. Others who work closer to South metro who are looking for deals will buy there.

Smyrna is infilling with 2 mixed-use under construction in city limits, 1 in the pipeline along the river, the Braves right outside city limits, a Boulevard plan for Windy Hill, Concord Rd stretscapes, massive redevelopment in Cumberland right on the city line and in the city limits in some places. Townhomes, row houses, and half million to 1.5 million mansions going up everywhere.

Marietta downtown is booming and streetscapes everywhere.

Cumberland has about a dozen different mixed-use and apartment developments going up, many office skyscrapers under construction, etc. This is ALL private investment other than half the stadium itself.

Woodstock and Cumming have half million dollar homes going up everywhere.

Kennesaw has mixed-use and apartments going up.

West Cobb is infilling with half million dollar mansions and sprawling million dollar estates. Between Hiram and West Cobb (the triangle of Powder Springs, Hiram to Due West, there seems to be an activity center emerging.

East Cobb is starting to look like Buckhead.

Hiram has homes going up everywhere.

Avalon in Alpharetta.

DOT is putting HOT in Cobb County I-75 and I-575

NW Atlanta is on fire. Vinings is on fire.

Perimeter Center, Sandy Springs, and Dunwoody are on fire.

Gwinnett County is still building like crazy.

On and on...

Last edited by netdragon; 09-20-2015 at 08:41 PM..
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Old 09-20-2015, 08:44 PM
 
Location: Valdosta (Atlanta Native)
3,453 posts, read 2,855,402 times
Reputation: 2180
Quote:
Originally Posted by matilda79 View Post
I'm late to the party, but the whole notion of "up and coming" on the South side as far as families are concerned (NOT singles--totally different demographic with totally different needs) has much to do with schools and secondly, business.

The reason people even give historic College Park and East Point a second blink, and the reason the price point is what it is in certain areas, is the proximity to Woodward Academy, and secondly, to major employers like DELTA, FAA, Porsche, and on and on. Period. Prices are higher in historic College Park and parts of East Point for a reason. Take just Woodward Academy away, and what do you think would happen, seriously? Families would commute to work from Fayette or Coweta County and send their kids to those schools. Many already do.

The outer areas of East Point, College Park, Riverdale, much of Clayton, etc., unfortunately, are going to have to figure out a way to attract families in order to be sustainable. Large employers, I would think, are a major start. The North side has this, which explains the accelerated growth there. I personally don't like that the south side has been left in the dust this way, but it just is.
Let's ignore the families already in the area or even the ones that are moving. There has to be something there keeping the area somewhat stable unlike the bad parts of ITP West Atlanta. Why do the schools continue to get larger?
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Old 09-20-2015, 09:29 PM
 
246 posts, read 210,368 times
Reputation: 258
Quote:
Originally Posted by demonta4 View Post
Let's ignore the families already in the area or even the ones that are moving. There has to be something there keeping the area somewhat stable unlike the bad parts of ITP West Atlanta. Why do the schools continue to get larger?
People do continue move southward, yes, agreed. They also move northward, westward, anywhere besides the inner city. I think it's a simple cost-benefit ratio calculation that families perform, and they believe their children stand a better chance in the suburbs. Homes cost a little less, property taxes are lower, violent crime (perceived or real) could be lower, and because of this, families stand a better chance at owning their own patch of grass and a shot at upward mobility.

Whether that's the reality or not is irrelevant, but I do think it is the perception. These are the reasons why suburbs continue to be attractive.
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Old 09-21-2015, 09:38 AM
 
3,215 posts, read 4,530,534 times
Reputation: 1754
Atlanta just isn't a huge gentrification city. Compared with DC, NYC, SF, etc, we just don't see neighborhood after neighborhood flip from dangerous to wealthy in a short time period.

I wouldn't take a bet on a neighborhood like Mechanicsville or Pittsburgh commanding a rent premium in the next 20 years. West End, however, is quite possible.

East Point, Hapeville, and College Park are sorta different since they lack the perception of being extremely dangerous (there are multiple midrange or even higher end restaurants in each of them, which is something you absolutely won't find in Mechanicsville/Pittsburgh/English Ave/etc), but then again they lack proximity to thriving areas that could theoretically flip the intown neighborhoods. I would say those areas will continue to have modest levels investment and rehabilitation, but not really cross over into being areas people would pay a premium to live in for the next 20 years. You'll always be branded an oddball at a northside/intown party when you mention you choose to call the tri-cities home.

Atlanta's friendliness towards big developers and its wide open land market, even in prime areas like Midtown and Buckhead, means the infill trend will remain a lot more pervasive than the gentrification trend for quite some time. The instances of whole neighborhoods flipping will be relatively seldom.
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Old 09-21-2015, 10:20 AM
 
1,979 posts, read 1,713,132 times
Reputation: 1244
Quote:
Originally Posted by testa50 View Post
Atlanta just isn't a huge gentrification city. Compared with DC, NYC, SF, etc, we just don't see neighborhood after neighborhood flip from dangerous to wealthy in a short time period.

I wouldn't take a bet on a neighborhood like Mechanicsville or Pittsburgh commanding a rent premium in the next 20 years. West End, however, is quite possible.

East Point, Hapeville, and College Park are sorta different since they lack the perception of being extremely dangerous (there are multiple midrange or even higher end restaurants in each of them, which is something you absolutely won't find in Mechanicsville/Pittsburgh/English Ave/etc), but then again they lack proximity to thriving areas that could theoretically flip the intown neighborhoods. I would say those areas will continue to have modest levels investment and rehabilitation, but not really cross over into being areas people would pay a premium to live in for the next 20 years. You'll always be branded an oddball at a northside/intown party when you mention you choose to call the tri-cities home.

Atlanta's friendliness towards big developers and its wide open land market, even in prime areas like Midtown and Buckhead, means the infill trend will remain a lot more pervasive than the gentrification trend for quite some time. The instances of whole neighborhoods flipping will be relatively seldom.
I generally agree with your take on gentrification. However the Tri-cities are in direct proximity to HJIA, which is a larger employment center than either Perimeter or Downtown. Grated these aren't cubicle worker jobs for the most part, but as the ATL powers that be keep pushing the Airport City concept, and the public/private partnership of the Aerotropolis Alliance work to recruit more HQs to locate in proximity to the airport, look for that to change as well.
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