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Old 09-20-2015, 06:31 PM
 
631 posts, read 1,028,511 times
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For most of the recent past, Metro Atlanta counties have voted staunchly Republican with the exceptions of Fulton, Dekalb, and later on, Clayton.

In the 2008 and 2012 elections, Douglas, Rockdale and Newton county voted Democrat

In the 2014 midterms (without Obama on the ballot) Henry County also joined team blue, voting narrowly for Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter

The D share of the vote in Gwinnett and Cobb has increased as well. Bush won these two counties with over 60% of the vote. In 2008/2012 Obama managed to win well over 40%. They seem to have shifted from strong Republican to lean Republican

Meanwhile, many of the outer suburban counties continue to stay extremely Republican. Forsyth (the fastest growing county in the region) consistently votes over 75% Republican, and sometimes over 80%. Cherokee and Coweta still vote over 70% R. Fayette County is trending D but still remains over 60% R.

What do these shifts mean for the metro Atlanta region and its importance in future elections?
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Old 09-20-2015, 08:04 PM
 
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I would expect to see drops in the hard red, nationwide really, except maybe places like Wyoming, as millennials continue to come on line and the oldsters continue to drop off. I think its not inconceivable for Georgia to go purple in the next one or two cycles.
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Old 09-20-2015, 08:13 PM
 
Location: West Cobb (formerly Vinings)
3,615 posts, read 6,302,195 times
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Georgia is a weak swing state for 2016 (leans republican vs neutral) which is why Hillary is spending more on GA than most states right now and even has a full-time staff member here. If dems can turn a state like GA then it's a guaranteed win if they carry all the states they are expected to.
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Old 09-21-2015, 12:19 AM
 
Location: Historic West End
3,991 posts, read 3,279,085 times
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To be quite honest most people are tired of both parties and want wise reasonable results.
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Old 09-21-2015, 05:37 PM
 
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Forsyth is rapidly diversifying while growing. It'll still be red, but not deep red. Probably somewhere between 60-70 % of the vote will be for R in next year's election.
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Old 09-21-2015, 05:49 PM
 
992 posts, read 519,419 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tryska View Post
I would expect to see drops in the hard red, nationwide really, except maybe places like Wyoming, as millennials continue to come on line and the oldsters continue to drop off. I think its not inconceivable for Georgia to go purple in the next one or two cycles.
True but dont discount the sizable portion of the electorate that become more conservative as they mature.
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Old 09-22-2015, 10:21 AM
 
Location: ITP - City of Atlanta Proper
7,803 posts, read 11,753,897 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by workaholics View Post
For most of the recent past, Metro Atlanta counties have voted staunchly Republican with the exceptions of Fulton, Dekalb, and later on, Clayton.
That's not actually true.

In the Presidential elections held since 1944, this is how Georgia has voted:

1944 - Roosevelt
1948 - Truman
1952 - Stevenson
1956 - Stevenson
1960 - Kennedy
1964 - Goldwater*
1968 - Wallace*
1972 - Nixon*
1976 - Carter
1980 - Carter
1984 - Reagan*
1988 - Bush I*
1992 - Clinton
1996 - Dole* (By a close margin)
2000 - Bush II*
2004 - Bush II*
2008 - McCain* (close)
2012 - Romney (close)

In the last 18 elections Georgia has gone blue 8 times, red 8 times, and non-major party once. Granted, in most of those elections it was the conserva-Dem vote but it was still counted for the Democratic party. What's interesting is when you look at what happened in more recent contests:

In 1996, Dole beat Clinton in Georgia by 26,994 votes
In 2008, McCain beat Obama in Georgia by 204,636 (In contrast, W. beat Kerry by 500,000+ in 2004 in Georgia)
In 2012, Romney beat Obama in Georgia by 300,000

In all contests since the 90s, each candidate in Georgia has received over a million votes, so the margins here are quite slim. The only time Georgia has been solidly red was in 1972 and 1984, and in those years the Republican candidates had massive landslides in every State.

While not a Virginia, Ohio, or Florida Georgia has always been a swing State for quite some time. Georgia being a "Red State" is recent phenomena fueled by the huge influx of Northern Republicans relocating here in the 90s and early 00s. Within a couple of election cycles, I fully expect Georgia to be reliably "blue" again.
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Old 09-22-2015, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Duluth, GA
1,144 posts, read 885,642 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waronxmas View Post
In the last 18 elections Georgia has gone blue 8 times, red 8 times, and non-major party once.
18 election cycles is "recent past"?!?

Going back to 1996, the election margins have been:

1996 - Dole 47.0%, Clinton 45.8%, Perot 6.4%
2000 - Bush 54.7%, Gore 43%
2004 - Bush 58%, Kerry 41.4%
2008 - McCain 52.1%, Obama 46.9%
2012 - Romney 53.3%, Obama 45.5%

The pendulum swung hard to the Republican side about 15 years, peaking in the mid 2000s. Its swinging back, but it'll be another cycle or two before Georgia is a swing state. Interestingly [maybe just to me], Gwinnett looks to be the first county to 'flip'.
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Old 09-22-2015, 12:51 PM
 
253 posts, read 216,143 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlwarrior View Post
To be quite honest most people are tired of both parties and want wise reasonable results.
This. But I wouldn't say most people though, but still a growing number.
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Old 09-22-2015, 01:05 PM
 
1,979 posts, read 1,704,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJDeadParrot View Post
18 election cycles is "recent past"?!?

Going back to 1996, the election margins have been:

1996 - Dole 47.0%, Clinton 45.8%, Perot 6.4%
2000 - Bush 54.7%, Gore 43%
2004 - Bush 58%, Kerry 41.4%
2008 - McCain 52.1%, Obama 46.9%
2012 - Romney 53.3%, Obama 45.5%

The pendulum swung hard to the Republican side about 15 years, peaking in the mid 2000s. Its swinging back, but it'll be another cycle or two before Georgia is a swing state. Interestingly [maybe just to me], Gwinnett looks to be the first county to 'flip'.

I think the Georgia, and much of the South, have very strong Populist streaks. However, we do love falling on the red side of cultural wedge issues.
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