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Those are some excellent points that Governor Deal will likely be highly motivated to veto this bill out of the fear that the signing of this bill into law will damage the legacy that he wants to leave as the governor who got the ball rolling again on transportation spending, made Georgia a major international TV and film production hub and made Georgia the number one state to do business in.
That is also an excellent point that there does not appear to be enough votes to override a Deal veto of this bill (...the Senate appears to be one vote short and the House appears to be about 16 votes short of the amount of support needed to override a Deal veto).
But many of the legislators who voted to pass this religious liberty bill out of the legislature are stating that they will not support Governor Deal's efforts education reform efforts if he does not sign both the controversial religious liberty and campus carry bills into law.
A veto of this bill by Governor Deal (which seems likely but is not completely guaranteed) will also intensely anger the bulk of the state's Republican Party apparatus (much of which wants this bill passed because they are deeply socially and culturally conservative and want to go on the offensive against the continuing sweeping social change that the legalization of same-sex marriage signifies) to the point that most of the Republican supermajority in the state legislature will no longer be willing to cooperate with Deal for the remainder of his term as governor.
Going against his party by vetoing this bill that much of the state's GOP and conservative apparatuses so badly wants passed into law would likely make Deal a lame duck politically for the remainder of his term as governor.
This is true, but the state's business community has the pull the keep these people in check somewhat. If Cagle wants to be elected governor in 2018 he will have to curry favor with Metro Atlanta's business community. They will be the ones funding his campaign against what will likely be a very crowded republican field for governor. If the state's republican party is hellbent on passing these insane social conservative policies, they can kiss business support goodbye. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few years, Metro Atlanta's business elite begin warming up to the democratic party and trying to get it revived. Also Georgia is projected to be a minority-majority state by 2025 and within a generation I suspect the republican party in this state may not be competitive. it would behoove the republicans to stop trying to cater exclusively to the fringes of their base and start courting moderates and minorities. If they don't they will lose counties like Gwinnett and even Cobb if they continue to push these red meat issues.
Those are some excellent points that Governor Deal will likely be highly motivated to veto this bill out of the fear that the signing of this bill into law will damage the legacy that he wants to leave as the governor who got the ball rolling again on transportation spending, made Georgia a major international TV and film production hub and made Georgia the number one state to do business in.
That is also an excellent point that there does not appear to be enough votes to override a Deal veto of this bill (...the Senate appears to be one vote short and the House appears to be about 16 votes short of the amount of support needed to override a Deal veto).
But many of the legislators who voted to pass this religious liberty bill out of the legislature are stating that they will not support Governor Deal's efforts education reform efforts if he does not sign both the controversial religious liberty and campus carry bills into law.
A veto of this bill by Governor Deal (which seems likely but is not completely guaranteed) will also intensely anger the bulk of the state's Republican Party apparatus (much of which wants this bill passed because they are deeply socially and culturally conservative and want to go on the offensive against the continuing sweeping social change that the legalization of same-sex marriage signifies) to the point that most of the Republican supermajority in the state legislature will no longer be willing to cooperate with Deal for the remainder of his term as governor.
Going against his party by vetoing this bill that much of the state's GOP and conservative apparatuses so badly wants passed into law would likely make Deal a lame duck politically for the remainder of his term as governor.
The Governor would be better served not to endanger everything he's done so far that's made Georgia a phenomenal story. If he sacrifices all of that (major companies relocating here, the film and TV business, etc), anything he could accomplish in the future would just pale in comparison to the failure that not vetoing this bill would bring. These major companies are serious about this. I still can't believe the legislature is this myopic.
Also on another note, instead of worrying about "religious liberty" these rural republican legislators should be worrying about the crisis unfolding in rural Georgia concerning hospitals and attracting economic development to their areas. As for legislators threatening to not support Deal's education reform push, this is where Georgia's democratic legislators can have some leverage. Remember, Deal needed their support to get his Opportunity School District amendment on the ballot. I suspect Deal could turn to the general assembly's democratic minority for support if he loses some republicans.
Same here. I'm going to pay more attention to who's in the legislature. I don't want to have the extra stress of worrying about Atlanta going into an economic funk because we have these delusional politicians. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't some outside money coming in from some group trying to get this done in different states. I wish one of the investigative reporters would pursue that.
I don't necessarily have the exact particulars, but notable and sometimes controversial high-profile social religious conservative activist and one-time director of the Christian Coalition and current director of the "Faith and Freedom Coalition", Ralph Reed (whose 2006 bid for Georgia Lt. governor was sank after his connection to a major Indian gambling lobbying scandal was reported) is but just one of the many powerful hard-right conservative interest groups doing a massive amount of fundraising off of the current religious liberty controversy that is unfolding in Georgia....A controversy that conveniently just happens to be unfolding and occurring during an election year when all legislative, congressional offices and the presidency are being contested.
The harder that conservative social advocacy groups like Ralph Reed's current organization "Faith and Freedom Coalition" and his former organization the "Christian Coalition" drive a high-stakes political and social issue like religious liberty, the more fundraising they do, particularly during a presidential election year.
This is true, but the state's business community has the pull the keep these people in check somewhat. If Cagle wants to be elected governor in 2018 he will have to curry favor with Metro Atlanta's business community. They will be the ones funding his campaign against what will likely be a very crowded republican field for governor.
It is so appropriate that you mention Lt. Governor Casey Cagle and his gubernatorial ambitions for 2018.
That's because Lt. Governor Cagle, of course is the President of the Georgia Senate, which is the body that really ignited this controversy about a month ago when it added the very controversial FADA (First Amendment Defense Act) to the fairly innocuous PPA (Pastor Protection Act) that the Georgia House had passed and had support across the political spectrum, including the support of progressives and both the state's business and LGBTQ rights activist communities.
Cagle, who despite winning more votes than any other candidate running for office in each of the three statewide elections that he has run in for and as Lt. governor (in '06, '10 and '14), has been viewed by the hard-right as being as extremely highly-suspect when it comes to conservative issues of social and cultural significance ever since he beat the hard-right's sweetheart, the ethically-suspect Ralph Reed, in the GOP primary race for Lt. governor back in 2006.
Cagle even endured through a rebellion against him led by the conservative hard-liners in the Senate in which he was stripped of most of his powers as presiding officer of the Senate for two years right after winning re-election to a second term as Lt. governor.
Because conservative hard-liners continue to view him as somewhat suspect and not conservative enough on many social and cultural issues and on conservative doctrine, Cagle gave his blessing to the adding of the controversial FADA to the PPA so that he can push the religious liberty issue and attempt to win favor with social, religious and cultural conservatives in (as you stated) what could potentially be a crowded GOP primary field for governor in 2018 if such big-named conservative figures like Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston decide to enter the race.
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Originally Posted by Airforceguy
If the state's republican party is hellbent on passing these insane social conservative policies, they can kiss business support goodbye. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few years, Metro Atlanta's business elite begin warming up to the democratic party and trying to get it revived. Also Georgia is projected to be a minority-majority state by 2025 and within a generation I suspect the republican party in this state may not be competitive. it would behoove the republicans to stop trying to cater exclusively to the fringes of their base and start courting moderates and minorities. If they don't they will lose counties like Gwinnett and even Cobb if they continue to push these red meat issues.
Those are excellent points about the ongoing changes in the state's demographics that may likely help to eventually make the state's electorate more moderate.
I agree with your prediction that the currently-dominant Republican Party will run the risk of not being as attractive as a draw for financial support from the state's massive business community (and will run the risk of driving moderate voters and most voters in general away from the GOP) if they keep pulling extremely risky political stunts like this that jeopardize the viability of the metro area and state's entire economy.
[quote=chuckshere;43426532]The Governor would be better served not to endanger everything he's done so far that's made Georgia a phenomenal story. If he sacrifices all of that (major companies relocating here, the film and TV business, etc), anything he could accomplish in the future would just pale in comparison to the failure that not vetoing this bill would bring. These major companies are serious about this.
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Originally Posted by chuckshere
I still can't believe the legislature is this myopic.
It all goes to the culture of the Georgia Legislature. Many legislators who are members of the Republican Party's supermajority in both houses of the Georgia Legislature used to be conservative Democrats when the Democratic Party was the force in state politics up until about the mid-late 1990's....That's when figures like current governor Nathan Deal and former governor Sonny Perdue changed from the Democratic Party to the GOP as part of a trend of party-switching that swept through the South in the 1990's and 2000's as conservative voters (particularly conservative voters in the South and Lower Midwest) permanently realigned from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party.
Many of those formerly-Democratic Republican legislators (especially those legislators who hail from rural and exurban areas of the state far-removed from the I-285 Perimeter and the Atlanta metro area) are often eager to prove their conservative Republican bona fides to their most conservative constituents who are the most active in GOP electoral politics by authoring and sponsoring some of the reddest-meat legislation possible, particularly during even-numbered election years when all state legislative seats are up for a vote in GOP primaries which most often decide the outcome of the entire election.
The way that state legislative and federal congressional district maps are drawn also plays a major role in the strong motivation for state legislators to author hard-core red-meat legislation like this during election years.
Because the redistricting process in Georgia and most states is controlled and executed by the majority party (instead of by a non-partisan commission), the lines are drawn to give the majority party (which in this case is the Republican Party) the most maximized electoral advantage possible....A process that most often (if not always) gives the majority party an electoral advantage that may far outstrip the majority party's actual electoral strength.
This process of drawing state legislative and federal congressional district maps to give one's party the most maximized electoral advantage possible (an electoral advantage that often far outstrips a party's actual electoral strength) is called GERRYMANDERING and it is a major reason why we often see major headline-grabbing red-meat legislation during election years.
The legislative and congressional district lines are drawn so that the majority party has an advantage of at least about 20 percentage points or so in as many districts as possible.
The old conservative Democrats who ran Georgia until 2002 were able to draw themselves a supermajority in the state legislature until through the 1990 U.S. Census when they controlled a supermajority of state legislative seats until 1994 when continued population gains in the Atlanta suburbs combined with the ratcheting up of the party-switching craze to further propel the GOP ascent in state politics.
(...1994 was a key year in the transition of the South from Democrat control to eventual GOP control because it was a year that the national conservative movement rocketed forward with adopted Georgian Newt Gingrich's legendary "Contract With America", an event that helped the GOP win a wave election in the midterms to take control of the U.S. House for the first time probably since at least the Eisenhower administration and an event that current Georgia governor Nathan Deal says inspired him to switch from the Democratic Party to the GOP.)
The GOP was able to have sole control and execution over the redistricting process for the first time after the 2010 Census when the GOP controlled both the governor's office and the legislature for the first time after a census since Reconstruction.
Because the legislative districts are drawn (or gerrymandered) so that the majority party has a large electoral advantage in most of them, lawmakers (particularly majority party lawmakers) are often most concerned with pleasing the group of voters (very-conservative outer-suburban, exurban and rural voters) who make up the majority of their constituencies and are the most active in electoral politics....Voters who most often will only be pleased with red-meat legislation that illustrates activist positions on high-profile issues that are of concern to a deeply conservative electorate.
(From Variety magazine) Human Rights Campaign president Chad Griffin is urging television and film studios and production companies to refuse to commit any further activity in the state of Georgia if Governor Nathan Deal does not veto the controversial religious liberty bill.
The Human Rights Campaign is the largest LGBT civil rights advocacy group and political lobbying organization in the United States.
Powerful socially and culturally conservative activist groups (like the Family Research Council and the National Organization of Marriage) are criticizing Georgia's controversial religious liberty bill by saying that the legislation is watered down and does not go far enough in protecting individuals and businesses that object to non-traditional couples.
The backers and supporters of the religious liberty bill are also threatening to bring the issue back before the legislature next year regardless of whether or not Governor Deal signs this year's bill into law.
"From the right: Critics of ‘religious liberty’ bill say it doesn’t go far enough" (Courtesy of the Atlanta Journal Constitution's "Political Insider" blog) From the right: Critics of
Powerful socially and culturally conservative activist groups (like the Family Research Council and the National Organization of Marriage) are criticizing Georgia's controversial religious liberty bill by saying that the legislation is watered down and does not go far enough in protecting individuals and businesses that object to non-traditional couples.
The backers and supporters of the religious liberty bill are also threatening to bring the issue back before the legislature next year regardless of whether or not Governor Deal signs this year's bill into law.
"From the right: Critics of ‘religious liberty’ bill say it doesn’t go far enough" (Courtesy of the Atlanta Journal Constitution's "Political Insider" blog) From the right: Critics of
I still think the governor will veto this bill. The film credits are Deal's baby and he doesn't want to see the state lose the film industry. Also while these social conservatives are threatening to bring this issue back next year, I believe the leadership in the house and possibly the senate won't have the tolerance for this issue next year. House Speaker Ralston was no fan of the issue to begin with. Also the state's business community will really step up their efforts to get other people to run against these people if they continue to bring it up. Atlanta's business community is tired of the state's rural legislators making Georgia look bad and will begin to withdraw support from the republicans if they continue to push these issues. While Georgia is still a socially conservative state that is changing. Nearly 60% of the state's population lives in Metro Atlanta which is socially moderate/liberal depending on where you live in Metro Atlanta. Most folks here just don't care about this issue and just want it to go away. Also while Deal has normally been hands off with the general assembly I expect him to become more involved in 2017 and even 2018. He's not running for any more offices and thus has nothing to lose. He wants to hold and preserve his legacy and doesn't want to see it ruined by these yahoos like Kirk and McKoon. I expect we will see a lot more vetos in the 2017 general assembly session.
Here's an excellent article from Charlie Harper discussing the "religious liberty" bill and the future of the republican party in the state if they keep pushing these issues..
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This is, however, an election year and legislators will not have to return to their districts and face an angry public while trying to explain why they wouldn’t vote to protect freedom of religion. The cost is a dedicated public relations campaign that is chipping away at Georgia’s images of being “too busy to hate” as well as the number one place to do business.
The process has become one all too familiar with Republican politics since the infusion of Pat Robertson Republicans. Those who can position themselves as the most conservative – in this case as the “most Christian” – gain an upper hand with a standing pool of activists by pushing legislation that may never pass and changes little in practicality.
A distinguished service medal should be given to Columbus Senator Josh McKoon, who not only has made religious freedom a multi-year crusade, but this year tripled down by proposing a constitutional amendment to make English the official language of Georgia (even though this is already the law of the state), as well as a term limit to the Speaker of the House.
Take the politics of the first two bills out of this discussion for a moment and ask yourself why would a Senator drop a resolution to change the terms of how the opposing chamber elects their leader? More specifically, would this Senator be trying to convey his ability to get bills passed? More likely, it should be viewed as a petulant temper tantrum against a designated and needed enemy.
The battle is one made for media coverage. The benefit is free media to establish statewide name ID.
The cost of this free media is one that embroils a business community currently held hostage between competing interests. While one can argue that the protests over HB 757 have been disproportionate relative to the merits of the bill, they were not unexpected. Senator McKoon seems to welcome the fissure, asking his twitter followers to retweet his message “if you think civil liberties, including the right of free exercise of religion, are more important than the Super Bowl.”
The cost of this trophy may be a Super Bowl, with collateral damage to Georgia’s convention and tourism industry, film industry, and emerging high tech community. He acknowledges as much with his tweet. With populism supplanting many of the tenants of conservatism within the GOP ranks, being anti-business can be a good future selling point too.
There are other costs involved, however. The GOP’s alignment with evangelical politics – often weaponizing Christianity to achieve political goals – seems to be taking a toll on both those self identifying as Christian as well as those who identify as a Republican. The more a party chooses to appeal to Pharisees the fewer women at the well feel welcome. Matthew Sheffield has written an extensive article for The American Conservative outlining the challenges this raises for the GOP.
The net result is that a series of short term victories can be good for a candidate – maybe even for those of the same party. But longer term, there are fewer and fewer among us who are identifying as Republican which is a political problem. The much bigger problem is that fewer and fewer are identifying as religious and or Christian. The unfortunate irony is that the laws passed to protect religion by the majority may be needed to protect the same folks as a future minority – partially fueled by the politics used to make these laws possible.
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