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Old 09-19-2016, 02:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Born 2 Roll,

Do you see any evidence of "tipping point" changes in these data?

I have heard it said that percentages tend to be pretty stable until they fall to around 40%, at which point they may decline more precipitously.
Unfortunately there seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon that you mention...but only largely in about 8 of the GCPS system's 19 clusters.

There particularly seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon in overwhelmingly majority-minority GCPS clusters anchored by high schools like Meadowcreek (3% white), Berkmar (4% white), Shiloh (6% white), Discovery* (6% white), South Gwinnett (8% white), Central Gwinnett (11% white) and even across some parts of the Norcross (16% white) and Duluth (19% white) clusters.

(*-The Discovery High School cluster is anchored by a new high school that just opened in the fall of 2015 and drew most of its student body from large parts of the neighboring Berkmar and Central Gwinnett clusters.)

The aforementioned GCPS clusters seem to have the experienced the most white flight in a county in Gwinnett where the percentage of the white population has declined from over 90% in the 1980's to under 40% as of the mid-late 2010's.

The white populations in the other GCPS clusters (North Gwinnett, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Grayson, Collins Hill, Archer, Mountain View and Archer) seem to be fairly stable for the time being. Much of the declines in the percentages of the white populations in these clusters seems to be more of a result of growing minority populations rather than as the result of a combination of exploding minority populations and significant amounts of white flight.

Overall, the white population in Gwinnett County has declined from a peak of 394,194 in 2000 (when whites made up about 67% of the county's population) to about 354,796 in 2015 (when whites only made up about 39.6% of the county's population), a decline of about 39,418 whites (or a 10% decline in the white population) between 2000 and 2015.

That 10% decline in the white population in Gwinnett from 2000 to 2015 is significant, but does not seem to be as significant as it could be given the massive demographic changes in the county over the last two-and-a-half decades in which the population of the county has swung from overwhelmingly majority white (supermajority/ultra-majority white) to overwhelmingly minority (nearing supermajority-minority).

The fact that Gwinnett's white population has only declined by about 10% from its peak in 2000 while the county's minority population has shot up by about 278% during the same time frame is likely a testament to the continued very high quality of the county's public school system....A public school system that continues to play a major role in helping the quality-of-life in the county to remain at a very high level during a period of continued massive demographic and developmental change in the county.
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Old 09-19-2016, 06:23 AM
 
Location: East Side of ATL
4,560 posts, read 6,526,184 times
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Born 2 Roll, you don't believe the older housing stock in those clusters play a large role in the flight? Most of those areas seem to have most of first generation housing in Gwinnett.
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Old 09-19-2016, 08:33 AM
 
1,814 posts, read 962,398 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Here's a look at the demographics of Gwinnett high schools over the last several years.

It looks to me like the Asian share has been fairly steady, with most of the growth coming from blacks and Hispanics.

What is the source of your numbers?
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Old 09-19-2016, 08:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilful View Post
What is the source of your numbers?
I just downloaded it from the Georgia Department of education and made a pivot table.
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Old 09-19-2016, 08:50 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
I just downloaded it from the Georgia Department of education and made a pivot table.
K thanks!
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Old 09-19-2016, 08:53 AM
 
1,814 posts, read 962,398 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
Unfortunately there seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon that you mention...but only largely in about 8 of the GCPS system's 19 clusters.

There particularly seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon in overwhelmingly majority-minority GCPS clusters anchored by high schools like Meadowcreek (3% white), Berkmar (4% white), Shiloh (6% white), Discovery* (6% white), South Gwinnett (8% white), Central Gwinnett (11% white) and even across some parts of the Norcross (16% white) and Duluth (19% white) clusters.

(*-The Discovery High School cluster is anchored by a new high school that just opened in the fall of 2015 and drew most of its student body from large parts of the neighboring Berkmar and Central Gwinnett clusters.)

The aforementioned GCPS clusters seem to have the experienced the most white flight in a county in Gwinnett where the percentage of the white population has declined from over 90% in the 1980's to under 40% as of the mid-late 2010's.

The white populations in the other GCPS clusters (North Gwinnett, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Grayson, Collins Hill, Archer, Mountain View and Archer) seem to be fairly stable for the time being. Much of the declines in the percentages of the white populations in these clusters seems to be more of a result of growing minority populations rather than as the result of a combination of exploding minority populations and significant amounts of white flight.

Overall, the white population in Gwinnett County has declined from a peak of 394,194 in 2000 (when whites made up about 67% of the county's population) to about 354,796 in 2015 (when whites only made up about 39.6% of the county's population), a decline of about 39,418 whites (or a 10% decline in the white population) between 2000 and 2015.

That 10% decline in the white population in Gwinnett from 2000 to 2015 is significant, but does not seem to be as significant as it could be given the massive demographic changes in the county over the last two-and-a-half decades in which the population of the county has swung from overwhelmingly majority white (supermajority/ultra-majority white) to overwhelmingly minority (nearing supermajority-minority).

The fact that Gwinnett's white population has only declined by about 10% from its peak in 2000 while the county's minority population has shot up by about 278% during the same time frame is likely a testament to the continued very high quality of the county's public school system....A public school system that continues to play a major role in helping the quality-of-life in the county to remain at a very high level during a period of continued massive demographic and developmental change in the county.
B2R - As usual good insights and information. Where in your best judgment do you see all this going over the next 10 years or so, particularly in regard to the North Gwinnett areas?
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Old 09-19-2016, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Kirkwood
23,728 posts, read 19,406,875 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilful View Post
B2R - As usual good insights and information. Where in your best judgment do you see all this going over the next 10 years or so, particularly in regard to the North Gwinnett areas?
If they don't get their act together and create some sort of reliable transit network; job losses will increase, congestion will impact freight movement (negative impact on their huge logistics sector), commute times will rise, QoL for residents will deteriorate and those that can afford to move will (wealth flight).
Gwinnett County getting left behind as it puts rapid transit on hold - SaportaReport
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Old 09-19-2016, 09:23 AM
 
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This is not just a Gwinnett County issue but more of a region wide issue. Thanks anyway.
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Old 09-19-2016, 09:36 AM
 
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Wow, cwkimbro, these spreadsheets are amazing. Thank you so much for them!!!!

What's interesting to me is that when I bought a house in Duluth (in 2009), I was well aware of the demographic shifts that had happened in the area. I knew it would be a good idea to watch the demographics of the school. Usually when you see the white population dwindle, that means property values are going to be affected. But I suppose this logic isn't always right, because Duluth high school's white population has decreased significantly since 2009, but Duluth still has the highest property values in the county.

There is certainly A LOT to think about here, and many notions of property value and quality of education simply do not apply to this region. I don't know what makes Gwinnett county so weird and so able to thrive with conditions that hurt other areas. But you've really proven what we already knew: This is the most diverse area of the metro, we don't have a segregation problem, and it IS possible for people of all different races and backgrounds to live together harmoniously and be successful together.
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Old 09-19-2016, 09:54 AM
 
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Wonder how the enrollment in Gwinnett public schools compares to the population in general?

Just guesstimating, it looks like Asian students may roughly match up with their share of the population, and that hispanics and blacks may be somewhat over-represented. On the other hand, whites make up about half of the county's population (I think) but only 25% of the school enrollment.

Obviously age and family size differences could come into play. Whites could be older or have fewer school age children. Or does this imply that whites are using public school less than other ethnicities?


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