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Old 09-19-2016, 10:33 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Wonder how the enrollment in Gwinnett public schools compares to the population in general?

Just guesstimating, it looks like Asian students may roughly match up with their share of the population, and that hispanics and blacks may be somewhat over-represented. On the other hand, whites make up about half of the county's population (I think) but only 25% of the school enrollment.

Obviously age and family size differences could come into play. Whites could be older or have fewer school age children. Or does this imply that whites are using public school less than other ethnicities?

Private school enrollment is disproportionately white nationally and Georgia has among the greatest disparities in white / non-white private school enrollment in the country. I suspect that what is happening in Gwinnett is that white families are on average older and less likely to have school age children and they simultaneously are sending their children to private schools at a much higher rate than all other racial / ethnic groups.
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Old 09-19-2016, 10:49 AM
 
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I live in Duluth and I never hear anybody talking about sending their kids to private school (of course, I don't live in a neighborhood where most people could probably afford to.)

One thing that is interesting to me is there seem to be more Asians than the enrollment would indicate. I'm going to guess that's because Asians tend to more commonly live with multiple generations under the same roof, so there are are many grandparents in the population that don't contribute to school age children.

The African-American and Hispanic populations seem high. I wonder if it's because they have more kids per capita or if they live in more rental communities. Still, it seems like you'd see them out and about.

If I were asked to guess the demographic population of Duluth based on my own experience, I'd say it is:

30% white, including Europeans
35% Asian
15% Black
10% Hispanic
5% Other
5% Multiracial

But that can vary. At the gym, it's easy to assume that the area is 90% Asian.
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Old 09-19-2016, 11:12 AM
 
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According to 2010 census data Gwinnett had 162k children in public schools and 13k in private schools. In private schools total enrollment was:
  1. White - 64%
  2. AA - 18%
  3. Asian - 10%
  4. Hispanic - 8%
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Old 09-19-2016, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,082 posts, read 8,519,306 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
Unfortunately there seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon that you mention...but only largely in about 8 of the GCPS system's 19 clusters.

There particularly seems to be a significant amount of evidence of the "tipping point" phenomenon in overwhelmingly majority-minority GCPS clusters anchored by high schools like Meadowcreek (3% white), Berkmar (4% white), Shiloh (6% white), Discovery* (6% white), South Gwinnett (8% white), Central Gwinnett (11% white) and even across some parts of the Norcross (16% white) and Duluth (19% white) clusters.

(*-The Discovery High School cluster is anchored by a new high school that just opened in the fall of 2015 and drew most of its student body from large parts of the neighboring Berkmar and Central Gwinnett clusters.)

The aforementioned GCPS clusters seem to have the experienced the most white flight in a county in Gwinnett where the percentage of the white population has declined from over 90% in the 1980's to under 40% as of the mid-late 2010's.

The white populations in the other GCPS clusters (North Gwinnett, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Grayson, Collins Hill, Archer, Mountain View and Archer) seem to be fairly stable for the time being. Much of the declines in the percentages of the white populations in these clusters seems to be more of a result of growing minority populations rather than as the result of a combination of exploding minority populations and significant amounts of white flight.

Overall, the white population in Gwinnett County has declined from a peak of 394,194 in 2000 (when whites made up about 67% of the county's population) to about 354,796 in 2015 (when whites only made up about 39.6% of the county's population), a decline of about 39,418 whites (or a 10% decline in the white population) between 2000 and 2015.

That 10% decline in the white population in Gwinnett from 2000 to 2015 is significant, but does not seem to be as significant as it could be given the massive demographic changes in the county over the last two-and-a-half decades in which the population of the county has swung from overwhelmingly majority white (supermajority/ultra-majority white) to overwhelmingly minority (nearing supermajority-minority).

The fact that Gwinnett's white population has only declined by about 10% from its peak in 2000 while the county's minority population has shot up by about 278% during the same time frame is likely a testament to the continued very high quality of the county's public school system....A public school system that continues to play a major role in helping the quality-of-life in the county to remain at a very high level during a period of continued massive demographic and developmental change in the county.
Not a bad post, but I do feel there are some other variables at play as to what makes different locations different and your brushing on them very well talking about quality-of-life.

Overall, I don't think there is a single magic tipping point number, but I do think overall of the quality of area will play a roll in affecting things (ie. if an area has low desirability and you become a minority and feel more out of place, you might not care to stay as much; Inversely, if an area has a good commute and schools, and stable home prices, the fact that you are becoming a minority and might feel more out of place might not be as big of a deal because your needs are still being met).

One thing about many of the schools bordering I-85, especially to the south, is that is where most of the apartments, townhomes, and cheaper single family homes are. The schools do not perform as well, either... generally speaking.

One issue Meadowcreek has had in the past (and rapidly growing this is impacting Berkmar) is the influx of Hispanics into the area has really harmed performance schools, except much of it isn't necessarily from lack of students working hard, family involvement, student potential, etc... There is actually a language barrier for some students at play. It is just enough that it is slowing down many of the classes overall to address it.

The other issue is when the foreign born population is so high, kids haven't always heard stories regarding local and U.S. history and cultures growing up (at least not in the same way). So in history or literature classes a school with a black and/or white population might be able to speed over some topics and talk about them more in detail, but when you have a foreign born population you might be explaining them something for the first time and it takes longer learn just being a new piece of information.

Many of transfers from Meadowcreek to Parkview have had problems a long this line. It can heavily impact a subject like math, where some of the terms are new to most students and it can be very hard to explain pre-calc subjects or other advanced topics when there is even a small language barrier.

Lastly, I just wanted to put this out there as well. I was hesitant to say this in a public forum where people who don't see this first hand are looking for normal popular rhetorical arguments. Truth be told most Hispanics -are- learning English, at least that is what I have experienced in the Lilburn area. It is a huge economic impact for them if they don't and they feel that. The problem I'm trying to spot out is there are many new arrivals. The Foreign born % is really high. There is a learning process for many kids as they adjust to life here. I go to a fast food restaurant or a check out line in a grocery store in Lilburn along 29 and increasingly those working are Hispanic and they are young (high school through mid-20s). Most of them speak incredibly good English and most with an American accent. So while I'm trying to spot out a real problem, I don't want things misconstrued to anyone who might believe "... and none of these people learn English or want to..." There is a difference.

Anyways point being.... If there is a "tipping point" I see why it happened at Meadowcreek sooner. I feel there were other things holding it back. Academic performance did suffer. I don't blame GCPS. I think the school has done a great job given their circumstance, but there enough options nearby where I can side-step those problems. It is actually a testament to Meadowcreek that the CCRIP is 61.9 in a way, but I won't be living there.

The schools bordering this area all have quality of life issues to encourage those to stay. Norcross has Peachtree Corners, easily the richest part of Gwinnett and often overlooked. Duluth has school that is still sometimes ranked, has many high-end areas and nice single family homes... especially to the west. The schools south (parkview/Brookwood) are in an are where home prices jump, there are few apartments, townhomes, and other cheaper housing in general. One thing I have noticed is even when Hispanics move into Parkview, they are the ones more established and paying more the house. Some problems come up, but less often. Meadowcreek does not get that benefit. Now the bad thing is anecdotally and locally people talk about Meadowcreek like it is the plague. It is losing a perception battle among many whites (and increasingly Asians and Blacks to behonest) that affects is pretty strongly.
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Old 09-19-2016, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,082 posts, read 8,519,306 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post
Wonder how the enrollment in Gwinnett public schools compares to the population in general?

Just guesstimating, it looks like Asian students may roughly match up with their share of the population, and that hispanics and blacks may be somewhat over-represented. On the other hand, whites make up about half of the county's population (I think) but only 25% of the school enrollment.

Obviously age and family size differences could come into play. Whites could be older or have fewer school age children. Or does this imply that whites are using public school less than other ethnicities?

I just wanted to touch on one thing.

It is relative to what share of the population you're comparing.

In Georgia the Asian population is only 4%. In the metro it isn't much higher. So 10% is significantly higher share for this region.

So for Gwinnett's population to normalize and reflect the region, the biggest issue is retention of whites going into the future.
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Old 09-19-2016, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,082 posts, read 8,519,306 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
I live in Duluth and I never hear anybody talking about sending their kids to private school (of course, I don't live in a neighborhood where most people could probably afford to.)

One thing that is interesting to me is there seem to be more Asians than the enrollment would indicate. I'm going to guess that's because Asians tend to more commonly live with multiple generations under the same roof, so there are are many grandparents in the population that don't contribute to school age children.

The African-American and Hispanic populations seem high. I wonder if it's because they have more kids per capita or if they live in more rental communities. Still, it seems like you'd see them out and about.

If I were asked to guess the demographic population of Duluth based on my own experience, I'd say it is:

30% white, including Europeans
35% Asian
15% Black
10% Hispanic
5% Other
5% Multiracial

But that can vary. At the gym, it's easy to assume that the area is 90% Asian.
I can see how it would feel that way.

I suspect there are 2 trends at play here.

First, schools are a leading indicator. There are still white empty nesters and singles peddling around. Also, increasingly whites have fewer children than all of these populations... and at a later age in life.

I also don't know where in Duluth you live. Based on previous posts in the past, I always assumed it was further west towards Peacthree Industrial. Granted this is an assumption, so let me know if I'm wrong. The western areas will trend more white/asian and the mall area will trend more hispanic and black. This might impact what you're seeing.

One advantage/disadvatage the schools have north of I-85 vs. South of I-85 have is you have the nicer suburban areas away from I-85 and the denser apartments areas near I-85 in the same district. South of I-85 there is a clear line and there are two 'rows' of schools. Those close to 85 and those in the quieter area away from I-85.

The affect is the same north and south, the difference is north the areas are even more high-demand being near N. Fulton and that the affect is shared within the same school district.

In a way Parkview and Brookwood are buffered from what happens closer to I-85.
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Old 09-19-2016, 12:18 PM
 
30,582 posts, read 29,099,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
Anyways point being.... If there is a "tipping point" I see why it happened at Meadowcreek sooner. I feel there were other things holding it back. Academic performance did suffer. I don't blame GCPS. I think the school has done a great job given their circumstance, but there enough options nearby where I can side-step those problems. It is actually a testament to Meadowcreek that the CCRIP is 61.9 in a way, but I won't be living there.
If "tipping points" are a real phenomenon -- and I'm not sure they are -- I wouldn't be surprised if they apply to all ethnicities when there is a perception that your numbers are decreasing. For example, the percentage of blacks at Berkmar declined significantly (from 36% to 27%).
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Old 09-19-2016, 12:20 PM
 
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You're correct, I do live along Peachtree Industrial, so I was comparing what I see to the enrollment of Duluth High School, which I am districted for. As far as I know, the apartments near the mall are not districted for Duluth HS.

I recall a few years ago there was a lot of commotion about a redistricting that from what I could gather, forced Duluth High School to take in pretty much all of the apartments of the area and Peachtree Ridge got off pretty much completely unscathed. A lot of people thought it was unfair, and it does seem that Peachtree Ridge is performing better.

One thing about this area is that it is once again growing rapidly. I would imagine that within the next 5-10 years they will have to construct a new school to take the pressure off Duluth/Peachtree Ridge, so who knows what that map will look like once that happens.
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Old 09-19-2016, 12:44 PM
 
30,582 posts, read 29,099,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
I just wanted to touch on one thing.

It is relative to what share of the population you're comparing.

In Georgia the Asian population is only 4%. In the metro it isn't much higher. So 10% is significantly higher share for this region.
Right, I was referring to Gwinnett's population. It wouldn't make sense to compare Gwinnett's school demographics to areas outside the school district.

Quote:
So for Gwinnett's population to normalize and reflect the region, the biggest issue is retention of whites going into the future.
How will Gwinnett go about doing that, or is that beyond the scope of government? I don't know, I'm just asking.
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Old 09-19-2016, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,082 posts, read 8,519,306 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arjay57 View Post

How will Gwinnett go about doing that, or is that beyond the scope of government? I don't know, I'm just asking.
Realistically, I believe it to be beyond the scope of government. It is just something to talk about, but that is just my belief.

What I do think is in the scope of government is to serve the community and it is important to know if certain needs aren't being met or there is a reason a demographic changes. (ie. Forsyth had a huge image problem with race-relations, clearly that had to change to better it for the long-run)
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