Updated Registrations Show an Increasingly Diverse Voter Base in Georgia (White: 2015, law)

[Born 2 Roll]

Center-right Republican political blogger/writer Jon Richards of North Georgia-centered state political website GeorgiaPol.com:

With early voting starting next week, and with great rumors of demographic change giving, in the eyes of some, their best chance to flip Georgia from Republican to Democratic, at least at the presidential level, it’s time to take a look at who is registered to vote, and what has changed about the electorate since the last election in 2014. I took a look at registered voters as of October 1st, the latest figures published by the Secretary of State’s office. While there will be some additional voters registered during the first week of October, this provides a fairly good picture of where we stand.

I took a look at changes in the statewide electorate since the 2014 election, and specifically broke out Cobb and Gwinnett counties because of their size and increasing diversity. The results are in this PDF (https://www.georgiapol.com/wp-conten...016-Voters.pdf)...

...Statewide, the number of white registered voters has actually fallen over the past two years, albeit not by much. However, in percentage terms, the white share of the vote has dropped by 0.8% in two years. The white share of the electorate in 2012 was 59.1%. Similarly, the share of the black vote has remained fairly stable over the last two years. most of the increase statewide of 1.4% came from new Asian and Hispanic voters. Indeed, Gwinnett’s number of registered voters grew at a greater rate than statewide, by 5.0%, reflecting its majority minority status.

Gwinnett County, which many believe will be one of the next counties to vote Democratic now has non-white voters in the majority. Only 49.2% of the Gwinnett electorate is white, a drop of almost 3%. Blacks make up 26.3% of voters, while Hispanic and Asian voters each have 6% of the voters, up just a little over 1%. For its part, the Cobb County voter base remains whiter than the rest of the state percentage-wise.

The percentage of registered voters in each group isn’t the same as the percentage in each group that actually votes in the election. In 2014, 63.5% of the voters were white, although they represented 58% of registered voters. Another factor to remember is that this is a presidential year, which typically means a higher voter turnout than non-presidential years. Who actually shows up in this most unusual presidential election remains to be seen.

"Updated Registrations Show an Increasingly Diverse Voter Base in Georgia" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2016/10/1...-base-georgia/

"Percentage Increase in Number of Voters for Each Racial Category" and "Percentage Share of Total Registrations for Each Racial Category" for Gwinnett and Cobb counties 2014-2016 (GeorgiaPol.com/Georgia Secretary of State)
https://www.georgiapol.com/wp-conten...016-Voters.pdf

"Taking a Closer Look At Who Voted in 2014" (Jon Richards/Peach Pundit, December 17, 2014)
Taking a Closer Look At Who Voted in 2014 – Peach Pundit

[Born 2 Roll]

One key takeaway from the article and the data is that the seeming 'majority-minority' status of Gwinnett's electorate appears to have the county on track to become a Democratic-leaning (if not Democratic-dominated) county within the next 10-15 years or so (probably within the next 10 years).

Another key takeaway from the article and the data is that the continuing status of Cobb's voter base as a predominantly white voter base that continues to be whiter-than-average than the rest of the state as a whole percentage-wise despite the county's population being near 'majority-minority' status likely means that the Republican Party will continue to be a dominant force in Cobb County's political scene...A Cobb County political scene that has long been regarded as one of the most legendarily Republican-dominated county political scenes in the entire nation.

Cobb County's voter base and political scene will likely continue to be dominated by Republicans for the better part of the next 10 years or so despite Cobb County's population appearing to be on the cusp of being majority-minority.

(...As of July 1, 2015, non-Hispanic white residents made up 53.1% of Cobb County's population but made up 61.2% of all of Cobb County's registered voters as of October 1, 2016.)

[primaltech]

It's weird to me how white Democrats are not even a demographic worth mentioning in Georgia, since I know tons of them.

Or Democratic voters, I should say. Liberal-leaning, pro-gay rights, etc.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by primaltech

It's weird to me how white Democrats are not even a demographic worth mentioning in Georgia, since I know tons of them.

Or Democratic voters, I should say. Liberal-leaning, pro-gay rights, etc.

White Democrats used to be the dominant demographic both in the state of Georgia and throughout much of the Southeastern U.S. as a whole.

But after Democratic president Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act into law in 1964, that dominant white Democrat demographic (a demographic which is deeply socially and culturally conservative) started voting for Republicans in larger and larger numbers on a more frequent basis through the end of the 20th Century. By the second decade of the 21st Century (the current decade of the 2010's), virtually all of the conservative white voters who once made up the loyal voting base of the Southern Democratic Party had become Republican voters.

Socially and culturally progressive white Democratic voters seemed to have more political influence (to an extent) when the Democratic Party was the dominant political party in Georgia and throughout the Southeastern U.S.

But now (except for an aspirant but not statistically dominant group of minority voters) progressive white voters are almost all that remains of a Democratic Party that has diminished into super-minority status in Georgia and throughout most parts of the nation not located in heavily-populated coastal areas (particularly in most interior states and throughout most of the Southeastern U.S.).

Progressive Georgia Democrats could (and may) potentially get a boost to their competitive prospects from the large numbers of newcomers moving into the state from other more heavily populated parts of the country where Democrats are much more politically competitive.

Progressive Georgia Democrats also could (and may) potentially get a boost to their competitive prospects from a Republican Party that, while currently electorally dominant, appears to be at war with itself and seemingly moving towards what looks like could be a really nasty split into two or more factions within the party's coalition.