Will Atlanta sprawl to Columbus and Macon? (LaGrange, Newnan: sales, mortgage)

[netdragon]

Even with the Savannah-Macon-Atlanta-Chattanooga maglev being built, there will probably never be sprawl that far out due to commute times, but we might see a string (more like a pearl necklace) of connected townships and cities with populations in the 20,000s to 50,000s along the interstates. Depressed metros like Macon will probably grow a little but the smaller towns closer to Atlanta, like Jackson, will probably benefit more. The same thing will happen towards Columbus. Towards Chattanooga, though, we'll probably see more development and sprawl and Chattanooga is likely to grow a lot more because the area around it is more scenic and that tends to attract people. It's also on the edge of a very popular vacation area. Areas between the interstate are very unlikely to fill in like they are around Atlanta. In fact, we're seeing signs of that already. Cartersville, Dalton, Jackson, Newnan, etc are growing much faster than even areas between interstates closer to Atlanta.

I think the think we're going to see very shortly in metro ATL is that land prices will drive industry to neighboring communities outside the metro. That will be the beginning of the neighboring region's growth, but we need to make sure it's well-connected by rail.

[ATLCOL1]

Originally Posted by plessthanpointohfive

There'd have to be some reason for business to happen BETWEEN these cities for this to happen.

It's a 2 hour drive to Columbus by car (from downtown Atlanta). I wonder how long a train would take if it were non-stop?

Actually, it's only an 1.5 hours from Columbus to Atlanta. It's only like 90 miles if that.

[ATLCOL1]

With Kia coming to LaGrange and Fort Benning bringing nearly 45,000 new people to Columbus, the Columbus area will really push northward. As a developer, the southside of Atlanta is seeing a lot of attention because the northside is just too packed out. You can be at Hartsfield from Columbus faster than you can from Marietta. At the rate Columbus is growing, I would expect to see a lot of development up I-185 toward LaGrange.

[roamfree]

I hope not.

[jjbradleynyc]

That'll be a disgustingly sad urban planning complete failure if it ever happens. And, considering planning was never really considered in and around Atlanta, it may just happen.

[J2rescue]

Originally Posted by ATLCOL1

With Kia coming to LaGrange and Fort Benning bringing nearly 45,000 new people to Columbus, the Columbus area will really push northward. As a developer, the southside of Atlanta is seeing a lot of attention because the northside is just too packed out. You can be at Hartsfield from Columbus faster than you can from Marietta. At the rate Columbus is growing, I would expect to see a lot of development up I-185 toward LaGrange.

Lagrange isn't connected to Columbus and there is an area in between the two that has almost no development. The Kia plant is likely to make Lagrange a stronger seperate micropolitan and eventually metropolitan area (>100,000).

With gas prices being what they are and the fact that metro Atlanta is starting "bump up" against other metro areas means Atlanta's expansion is very likely at its limits. Those cities could be affected by Atlanta but development that happens that far out will become a part of those metros rather than Atlanta; functioning like satellite cities but seperate from Atlanta metro itself (such as Gainesville).

[pirate_lafitte]

Originally Posted by ATLCOL1

Does anyone think that the Atlanta metro area will ever overtake the Columbus metro and Macon metro areas? Atlanta continues to grow in all directions. As Atlanta pushes south, cities like Columbus and Macon continue to push north. What are the chances of Columbus and Macon being overtaken by metro Atlanta?

That is a possibility. LA was able to sprawl into one big mess and it had high moutains and desert to the east and the Pacific Ocean to the west. Atlanta has some low moutains to its north and there is virtually nothing after Fayette County to the south. Cheap land, and a sprawling city means Atlanta could very well go down to Macon. Columbus is a little iffy but still possible. There is no landblock for miles to the south.

[south-to-west]

Back in the day of low gas prices, this theory would have been more plausible. However, the high price of gas will be a strong deterrent to people moving further out. Also, if rail is even implemented--which doesn't seem forseeable in the next 25 years--further expansion would be greatly limited due to time concerns. Increasing congestion is also another factor that is limiting the growth of Atlanta.

Now if the economies of Macon and Columbus vastly improve and subsequent rapid growth occurs in those two areas, then there would be a small likelihood that an urban corridor could develop like the one between LA and San Diego, where there is a small amount of rural/open space between the two population centers along a heavily traveled corridor. But in the end, I don't ever see Atlanta's suburbs sprawling down to Macon or Columbus.

[trish74]

I don't know about Macon ever being a sprawl from Atlanta but I know a lot of people that commute to Atlanta for job reasons, some commute from Warner Robins even. My husband goes to Buckhead on occassion and it takes him from north Macon about 60 to 70 minutes and he leaves at 8:30am. And for those that don't go all the way into Atlanta they are headed to the airport weekly to fly on business. It isn't a bad ride to the airport... atleast you are moving and not sitting in traffic MOST of the time unless 675 catches you but then you can use Garmin and take back roads!

Many wish a rail would exist between the two, and with the population continuing to grow here in GA (ATL) I think everyone wishes there was real help for the roads.

[pirate_lafitte]

Originally Posted by south-to-west

Back in the day of low gas prices, this theory would have been more plausible. However, the high price of gas will be a strong deterrent to people moving further out. Also, if rail is even implemented--which doesn't seem forseeable in the next 25 years--further expansion would be greatly limited due to time concerns. Increasing congestion is also another factor that is limiting the growth of Atlanta.

Now if the economies of Macon and Columbus vastly improve and subsequent rapid growth occurs in those two areas, then there would be a small likelihood that an urban corridor could develop like the one between LA and San Diego, where there is a small amount of rural/open space between the two population centers along a heavily traveled corridor. But in the end, I don't ever see Atlanta's suburbs sprawling down to Macon or Columbus.

I didn't factor in gas. Sorry about that, but it is still interesting to wonder. The only solution I see for the metro area is for what happened to Toronto back in the 90's to happen to Atlanta. Toronto's surrounding areas like Etobicoke were amalgamated into the city of Toronto. No more suburbs. After that start a regional railroad.