Will Atlanta sprawl to Columbus and Macon? (Savannah, Warner Robins: homes, taxes)

[spacelord75]

Not for a long time - the outer suburbs (ie, anything more than 45 minutes with no traffic) are really going to tank over the next few years in terms of home prices, making an outward push not really necessary. Maybe once home prices in these hyper-inflated areas come back down to reality and actually sell, then you might see outward expansion. That will probably take a while, since there is tons of new/existing development sitting empty. The problem is normal people have been priced further and further out of the metro area due to the housing boom and fake rising prices, thus creating a false demand for areas like Canton, Cumming, Newnan, Covington, Dacula, etc. Once median prices come down to more reasonable levels (as is already happening) these same Atlanta workers will move back inward for shorter commutes (especially with no end to gas price increases in sight). Obviously there will still be demand from people who work in these areas, but the added thrust of Atlanta-based people will not be as strong.

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by spacelord75

Not for a long time - the outer suburbs (ie, anything more than 45 minutes with no traffic) are really going to tank over the next few years in terms of home prices, making an outward push not really necessary. Maybe once home prices in these hyper-inflated areas come back down to reality and actually sell, then you might see outward expansion. That will probably take a while, since there is tons of new/existing development sitting empty. The problem is normal people have been priced further and further out of the metro area due to the housing boom and fake rising prices, thus creating a false demand for areas like Canton, Cumming, Newnan, Covington, Dacula, etc. Once median prices come down to more reasonable levels (as is already happening) these same Atlanta workers will move back inward for shorter commutes (especially with no end to gas price increases in sight). Obviously there will still be demand from people who work in these areas, but the added thrust of Atlanta-based people will not be as strong.

I think you're making a blanket assumption that all of us who live in the outlying counties do so because it was all we could afford. Has it occured to you that some people actually like living there, as opposed to living in 90 y/o homes in Inman Park and the other intown areas, and won't be moving intown regardless of how cheap the prices get there?

[spacelord75]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

I think you're making a blanket assumption that all of us who live in the outlying counties do so because it was all we could afford. Has it occured to you that some people actually like living there, as opposed to living in 90 y/o homes in Inman Park and the other intown areas, and won't be moving intown regardless of how cheap the prices get there?

Of course, and I tried to place this caveat into my statement by adding the final sentence in my post, but see I failed to cover all people who would want to live in these areas for other than financial reasons. Listen - I don't live ITP either, but you have to admit that the majority of the outward growth has been spurred on by the unrealistic prices in-town and common sense states that once these prices come down (and gas prices continue to rise) that people will reverse their ways for a more economical way of life. I'm not saying ITP is better than OTP or vice versa, just making an analysis. We are already seeing the signs of builders cooler their jets on metro-fringe developments, as sales have fallen off considerably. So, while the sprawl will eventually hit Macon and Columbus, it will be slowed by the withering housing market in outer-outer-suburbs.

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by spacelord75

Of course, and I tried to place this caveat into my statement by adding the final sentence in my post, but see I failed to cover all people who would want to live in these areas for other than financial reasons. Listen - I don't live ITP either, but you have to admit that the majority of the outward growth has been spurred on by the unrealistic prices in-town and common sense states that once these prices come down (and gas prices continue to rise) that people will reverse their ways for a more economical way of life. I'm not saying ITP is better than OTP or vice versa, just making an analysis. We are already seeing the signs of builders cooler their jets on metro-fringe developments, as sales have fallen off considerably. So, while the sprawl will eventually hit Macon and Columbus, it will be slowed by the withering housing market in outer-outer-suburbs.

I think it'll take a huge swing in home prices and a much larger upswing in gas prices than we've seen to make that big of a difference in the patterns. Remember- it prices drop intown, they'll likely also drop in the burbs, so the burbs will still remain more affordable. Even with gas at $4/gallon, I'd still only be spending around $400/month for gas commuting from Cherokee County, which only equates to around $50k of mortgage and increased property tax costs- it'd take much more than that to make me move intown- been there and done the old house in old neighborhood with so-so schools thing in NJ, and I've got no intention of doing it again (and there I did it with a 1-1.5 hour commute....lol).

[spacelord75]

I think it just depends on how far down they go. I would agree that we've got enough growth and influx of people (plus not nearly the same appreciation patterns since 1999 as other places) to mean that outer burbs will still be desireable to a good many people. Let's just go ahead and breath a sigh of relief that we do not live in the greater Phoenix area, which saw much the same phenomenon we have and the outer cities are becoming ghost towns (again) due to the decline in property values, builders abandoning projects not even half finished, etc.

I think you are looking at this from the standpoint of people willingly leaving the outer burbs or just staying put. My scenario/fear is when people are FORCED out of these areas because their properties decline in value so much (as a reaction to lowered in-town prices). What happens when many fringe buyers who probably took out option-ARM or subprime loans to afford even these properties get reset and the banks refuse to refinance due to the property values being too low to cover the mortgage? This then creates a downward spiral of falling prices and kills neighborhoods.

Once again - remember I said a slow-down of sprawl, not an end. I think it's pretty reasonable to assume the former given the fact that builders are already stopping projects.

[jam 5]

i think atlanta georgia will never sprawl out that far to macon or columbus these cities are to far out for that to happen and plus i dont think atlanta will grow and get that big in my opionion atlanta will probably only grow as far south as newnan georgia and that will be about it

[DeaconJ]

Newnan is already part of Metro Atlanta...so you're right about that. As you can see, Coweta County (Newnan) is easily included in Metro Atlanta.


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:G...unties_map.png

[FromCLTtoATL]

I think it's possible, but not probable, for a variety of reasons:

1. The aforementioned higher fuel/lower home prices effect.
2. A more concerted effort for denser in-town projects and in-fill building.
3. The rising desirability of inner-city living.

Along with some megatrends:

4. U.S. population growth overall expected to level out before end of century.
5. And my own personal theory - the big growth area in the U.S. will shift to the Great Lakes region in about 30-40 years because of the worsening drought/drying conditions in the Southwest and Southeast.

So before we could merge into Macon or Columbus, I think these shorter-term trends and longer-term trends will take hold.

But who knows? I never thought I'd pay $4 and change for gas one week, $3 and change the next and $2 and change the next. ANYTHING is possible!

[DeaconJ]

Originally Posted by FromCLTtoATL

I think it's possible, but not probable, for a variety of reasons:

1. The aforementioned higher fuel/lower home prices effect.
2. A more concerted effort for denser in-town projects and in-fill building.
3. The rising desirability of inner-city living.

Along with some megatrends:

4. U.S. population growth overall expected to level out before end of century.
5. And my own personal theory - the big growth area in the U.S. will shift to the Great Lakes region in about 30-40 years because of the worsening drought/drying conditions in the Southwest and Southeast.

So before we could merge into Macon or Columbus, I think these shorter-term trends and longer-term trends will take hold.

But who knows? I never thought I'd pay $4 and change for gas one week, $3 and change the next and $2 and change the next. ANYTHING is possible!

Where are you getting gas for $2 and change??? I need to go there...

I'm not sure that the population will ever again shift to such a cold and snowy region with the hard winters like they experience around the Great Lakes. It's a life of hardship in many ways, and those hardships are easily left behind with a move south. Life in our warmer weather has only minor inconveniences in comparison. Once people found out that fact, the mass exodus began...

The drought conditions seem to be over in the Atlanta area, although it will take some time for lake levels to get back to normal. Drought could possibly be a trend in the Southeast, but there have been short, inconsistent drought periods throughout the 20th century yet conditions have always returned to normal rainfall before too long...just as is happening now.

Atlanta has some of the highest average annual rainfall of any large city in the U.S., but the massive, explosive population growth in the region quickly made the reservoirs in the area insufficient. Hopefully before another drought appears, the new reservoirs will be ready and full so there won't be a problem.

[saharaga]

Originally Posted by J2rescue

Lagrange isn't connected to Columbus...

Yes it is. Coming from Columbus, the last 2 exits on 185 are LaGrange exits. You can also hit 85S from 185 and LaGrange is the very next exit.