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Old 10-04-2017, 04:07 AM
 
5,372 posts, read 4,893,621 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnetar View Post
It's an inexact calculation for sure, but if you add up the populations of every MSA in Georgia that voted for the Democratic presidential candidate over the Republican in 2016, you'd get about 68% of the state's population. If a Democratic gubernatorial candidate ran on a pro-urban platform, against a Republican running on religious ideology, they could tap into a pretty wide swath of the state.
I agree that a Democratic gubernatorial candidate could tap into a pretty wide swath of the state if they ran on a pro-urban platform against a Republican candidate running on religious ideology.

But I think that with the current makeup of the electorate (not yet enough progressive voters in the electorate to outvote the conservative GOP base in statewide elections) and with both the organizational and ideological blight in the Democratic Party in recent years (where Democrats are at least competitive in statewide and high-profile races despite inadequate organization and no real strategy), I think that Democrats are still currently some years off from successfully executing such a political feat.

Right now, there just does not seem to be enough progressive voters for Democrats to win a statewide race running a pro-urban platform against a Republican. That obviously can and likely will change in years to come, but right now the state (particularly the state's electorate) just is not there yet.

There is also the factor that many white voters in the suburbs of the Atlanta area, even in counties seemingly as urban as Cobb and Gwinnett don't view their areas as being urban, they still view themselves as outer-suburban/exurban residents living in a far-flung outlying outer suburban/exurban area far removed from any urban pretenses.

...It is kind of reflective of how Republicans are currently able to dominate electoral results by competing and winning with a coalition of suburban, outer-suburban, exurban and rural conservative voters.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JMatl View Post
Yeah, Trump only won Georgia by 5.1% - hardly a landslide like some neighboring States. The fact that he didn't win Cobb County is pretty telling.

The tipping point is right around the corner.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia
Those are excellent points that in 2016 Donald Trump only won Georgia by 5 points and was the first GOP presidential candidate to lose heavily Republican Cobb County since the 1976 presidential election.

But even though the county's population appears to be trending heavily towards purple status, people should be careful not to read too much into the results of the 2016 presidential election in a traditionally deep-red suburban county like Cobb.

Donald Trump may have received only about 46% of the vote in losing to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in traditionally deep-red Cobb County, but there were two notable other Republican candidates who ran much more strongly in Cobb County than Trump.

Popular and well-liked Republican Georgia U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson received over 16,000 more votes and finished six points higher than Donald Trump in winning about just under 53% of the vote in Cobb County.

Meanwhile, Republican Cobb County Sheriff Neil Warren (a deeply conservative political figure who fashions himself as a tough, no-nonsense law-and-order sheriff in a mode that is inspired by and loosely based upon the mold of controversial former Maricopa County, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio and who is popular with the county's deeply conservative voters, particularly on the issue of illegal immigration enforcement) received over 25,000 more votes than Donald Trump in winning over 56% of the vote in Cobb.

Donald Trump's poor performance in Cobb County may not have necessarily been completely about the county's population and electorate trending heavily purple as much it may have been more so about the strong dislike of Trump by the affluent college-educated suburban GOP voters and the by suburban female voters who make up a big part of the Cobb County GOP electorate... Many of whom either voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton, a third-party candidate or just skipped voting in the presidential race altogether.

Your observation about the tipping point appearing to be right around the corner is a good conclusion... Particularly with Hillary Clinton receiving just under 49% of votes cast in winning Cobb County with a plurality of the vote, and with popular and well-liked Republican Georgia U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson winning re-election with just 52.9% of the vote from the GOP stronghold that is Cobb.

Democrats do indeed appear to be pulling closer in Cobb with the ongoing significant demographic shifts in the county.

But with a more popular and well-liked presidential candidate, it is likely that the GOP probably would have won the presidential race in a Cobb County that remains a famous/infamous Republican stronghold even with the demographic changes.

The performance of a deeply conservative figure like Cobb County Sheriff Neil Warren indicates still have much work to do before moving into a position to be win countywide races on a consistent basis in Cobb County.

More Democratic voters have got to join the electorate and outvote the Republican electorate which (though not necessarily as dominant as they once were in the county) remains very strong in the county.

The Democratic Party also has to be more organized in both getting out its base vote at election time while appealing to Independents (who generally tend to automatically vote Republican in a conservative state like Georgia) and moderate Republican voters.

Much like it is nationally right now outside of the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, the Democratic Party seems to be in a shambles from both an ideological and an organizational standpoint. Democrats can perform well enough to keep races close and competitive but seem to be incapable of getting over the hump and winning races... Something which is not just a Georgia problem but is also a national problem for the party.

But with a figure as unpredictable and as destructive as Donald Trump in the White House, Democrats should like their chances to remain competitive enough to possibly win in places like Cobb County where the demographics are trending both the population and electorate their way.

Though Democrats will have to build a foundation for future success if they want to be in position to take advantage of the favorable demographics... Something that I am not necessarily seeing at both a high-enough level and at a large enough scale just yet.

The demographics will eventually give Democrats an automatic advantage in countywide races in a county like Cobb, but it still probably will be the better part of about a decade or so before that happens.


Quote:
Originally Posted by fieldm View Post
Rural Georgia Republicans are idiots
The frustration of repeatedly having to engage in a debate about legislation (in the form of religious liberty legislation) that has the potential to be so incredibly destructive to both the state's economy and the state's national/international image is more than understandable.

But such statements ultimately are not helpful when attempting to guide the state through the dangers of such a volatile political (and social and cultural) debate.
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Old 10-04-2017, 05:48 AM
 
4,013 posts, read 2,292,047 times
Reputation: 1967
@Born to Roll


Gotta call a spade a spade. Whoever is more concerned with this nonissue that is being hyped up by other surrounding states instead of not being more concerned with our economy (Metro Atl) which is more than 65% of our total economy is an idiot. Sure they probably don't care about new jobs in Atlanta but new jobs in Atlanta help our overall state economy

These so called drug smoking, having sex before marriage, cusing, porn watching Christians should stop hoping on the bandwagon with this nonissue and think about protecting the main economic driver in this states economy. Why on earth would someone potentially put at risk their states main economic source is stupid especially this bs issue. Sure they will probably not get any Amazon HG2 jobs but it will still help them because overall it will bring more money to the state. Btw so called Christians or real Christians shouldn't be discriminating against anyone anyway. The reason they get the services they have now is mainly because of the economy and taxes we pay in Metro Atlanta.

Sure everything you said about the mindset of them vs us is 100% true but like I said an idiot is an idiot. It's so much more they should be worried about in rural Georgia like the high crime rates, few jobs, few new jobs, the drug crisis, etc but they love hyping up this bs issue
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