Atlanta and the 2018 GA election: Straw poll results from GOP gubernatorial forum (Columbus: appointed, 2014)

[Born 2 Roll]

The 2018 elections for state-level legislative, congressional and statewide constitutional offices in Georgia may not be an Atlanta-specific issue, but given the direct effects that the outcomes of such races will undoubtedly have on the economic well-being, national and international image and overall quality-of-life of the Atlanta metropolitan area and region as a whole, it is in the best interest of every metro Atlanta resident to know how such a vitally important political process is unfolding.

From Mike Hassinger of GeorgiaPol.com:

A tip of the hat to the GAGOP 10th District and the College Republicans at Georgia College and State University (in Milledgeville) for putting on a very well-run forum. Aside from the unfortunate scheduling of a political event on game day, it went off without a hitch, and these things aren’t ever hitch-free without a lot of hard work. Kudos.

There were about 350 people in attendance, approximately half of whom cast a vote in the straw poll.

Governor: Lt. Governor Casey Cagle 91, GA state Senator Hunter Hill of Smyrna 63, GA Secretary of State Brian Kemp 49, Mark Alan Urbach 0, Clay Tippins 2, GA state Senator Michael Williams of Cumming 15, Undecided 8.

Lt. Governor: former GA state Rep. Geoff Duncan 75 of Cumming, GA state Senator Rick Jeffares of McDonough 24, GA state Senate president pro tempore David Shafer of Duluth 69, Undecided 44.

Secretary of State: Alpharetta mayor David Belle Isle 43, GA state Rep. Buzz Brockway of Lawrenceville 48, GA state Senator Josh McKoon of Columbus 44, GA state Rep. Brad Raffensperger of Johns Creek 18, Undecided 56.

Attorney General: incumbent GA Attorney General Chris Carr 139, Undecided 53.

Agriculture Commissioner: incumbent GA state Agricultural Commissioner Gary Black 149, Undecided 40.

Insurance Commissioner: Jim Beck 31, Jay Florence 25, Tracy Jordan 13, Shane Mobley 45, Undecided 84.

Labor Commissioner: incumbent GA Labor Commissioner Mark Butler 113, Undecided 66.

State School Superintendent: Sonia Francis-Rolle 23, incumbent GA Schools Superintendent Richard Woods 101, Undecided 70.

PSC 3: incumbent GA PSC 3 Commissioner Chuck Eaton 102, Undecided 68.

PSC 5: incumbent GA PSC Chairman Stan Wise 92, Undecided 83.

https://www.georgiapol.com/2017/10/0...atorial-forum/

The governor's race is clearly the most important of all of the 2018 statewide contests with sitting 3-term Georgia Lt. Governor Casey Cagle being the clear frontrunner for the entire two-party field in the contest early on.

Georgia state Senator Hunter Hill of Smyrna and current Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp are also very strong contenders in the entire two-party gubernatorial field early on.

In the Lt. governor's race, former Georgia state Representative Geoff Duncan of Cumming and Georgia state Senate President Pro Tempore David Shafer of Duluth are the frontrunners and strongest candidates for the entire two-party field early on. Duncan looks to have a slight advantage in the race because he looks to be positioning himself as the anti-establishment alternative to a very well-connected Georgia GOP and Northside business establishment favorite in GA state Senate President Pro Tempore David Shafer.

In the Secretary of State race there are three very strong contenders in Alpharetta mayor David Belle Isle, GA state Representative Buzz Brockway and GA state Senator Josh McKoon of Columbus.

Alpharetta mayor David Belle Isle looks to be strong in the race because he can pull votes from the suburban conservatives in the GA 400 North and I-75 Northwest corridors (most notably in North Fulton, South Forsyth and East Cobb).

Georgia state Representative Buzz Brockway has a large following from his time writing for and contributing to the erstwhile popular state political blog "Peach Pundit." Brockway also is a somewhat moderately conservative who has kept a large online/social media presence since first being elected to the Georgia House of Representatives from an increasingly diverse Gwinnett County district in 2010.

Georgia state Senator Josh McKoon is a strong contender in the race because he's a firebrand social conservative activist with very strong and direct Tea Party ties who has made waves in the Georgia General Assembly battling with GOP caucus leadership while making an increasingly strong push for state-level religious liberty legislation that is overwhelmingly popular with the GOP's base of social and religiously conservative voters.

As with every other statewide race, Republicans will be strong in the Georgia Secretary of State race but complicating matters for the Georgia GOP is the entry of popular former congressman John Barrow into the race on the Democratic side.

Barrow will run very strongly and likely make the GOP spend much more money than it would like in a general election campaign that normally would be automatic for them. Barrow will give the Democrats what will likely be their only somewhat legitimate shot at winning a statewide contest, though at this point in time Democrats have fallen so far out of favor with white voters in Georgia and throughout large swaths of the nation as a whole that it likely still may not be enough for them to win.

In the Attorney General race, incumbent Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr (who was appointed to the position by Georgia Governor Nathan Deal after former AG Sam Olens resigned to take the job as president of Kennesaw State University) appears to be running unopposed in the GOP primary at this point in time.

Incumbent Georgia Commission of Agriculture Gary Black has received very high marks since being elected to the position in 2010 for modernizing the Georgia Department of Agriculture and making it responsive to customer needs.

In the Georgia Schools Superintendent race, incumbent Georgia Superintendent of Public Instruction Richard Woods is not necessarily one of the favorites of the Georgia GOP and Georgia business establishments because of his background as an educator from deep rural South Georgia with direct Tea Party ties in a Georgia GOP apparatus that is increasingly dominated by big business and establishment interests in North Georgia.

Woods seems to have done a fairly competent job as state schools superintendent since being elected to the job in 2014, but his position has still been targeted to be converted into a position that is appointed by the governor both because of Woods' anti-establishment background and because of the GOP and business establishments' desires to have more political and organizational control over a position that has held by too many independent-minded politicians in the eyes of the establishment.

[fieldm]

Most of the people running for governor here are garbage in favor of the religious freedom bill. Sad sad sad

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/...n-first-forum/

[Born 2 Roll]

Jessica Szilagyi of GeorgiaPol.com provided a good analytic rundown of the event as well as a good summary of the strengths and weaknesses that all of the candidates displayed during the GOP gubernatorial forum...

"Analysis of the First GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Forum" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2017/10/0...ndidate-forum/

[jero23]

Georgia can only hope Stacey Abrams can prevail in the end. If not, I sense this state is in for a very bump ride socially and economically ahead...

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by jero23

Georgia can only hope Stacey Abrams can prevail in the end. If not, I sense this state is in for a very bump ride socially and economically ahead...

Jero, I am inclined to agree. I cannot in good conscience vote for a Republican candidate on this go-round.

[primaltech]

I support Abrams for governor, but knowing that her chances in the general election are a long shot at best, my hope is that Cagle can hold off the more conservative names running.

He is more of a moderate conservative, like Deal. Right now he has to pivot to the right for the primaries and to secure the base. But as governor I don't think he'll be any more to the right than Deal, and maybe, hopefully, perhaps even slightly more moderate. He's definitely pro-transit, pro-MARTA expansion (though he would have governance changes to it.) But that's more than can be said for the other R's running. Cagle is more of a business Republican, as opposed to more of a religious Republican (relatively, anyway). Our best hope in this backwards state is for the former variety.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by primaltech

I support Abrams for governor, but knowing that her chances in the general election are a long shot at best, my hope is that Cagle can hold off the more conservative names running.

He is more of a moderate conservative, like Deal. Right now he has to pivot to the right for the primaries and to secure the base. But as governor I don't think he'll be any more to the right than Deal, and maybe, hopefully, perhaps even slightly more moderate. He's definitely pro-transit, pro-MARTA expansion (though he would have governance changes to it.) But that's more than can be said for the other R's running. Cagle is more of a business Republican, as opposed to more of a religious Republican (relatively, anyway). Our best hope in this backwards state is for the former variety.

Yes, one can only hope. One can also only hope that Cagle is silently thinking "No way in Hell" when it comes to the Religious Freedom Bill.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Iconographer

Yes, one can only hope. One can also only hope that Cagle is silently thinking "No way in Hell" when it comes to the Religious Freedom Bill.

I know that a lot of people in the state are strongly opposed to the advancement of religious liberty legislation into law for obvious reasons.

But each of the GOP gubernatorial candidates took and signed a pledge to push for and sign a religious liberty bill into Georgia state law that at the very least mirrors the federal RFRA passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1993.

After the angry backlash from the right against Governor Nathan Deal's veto of highly controversial state religious liberty legislation in 2016, there is no way for the religious liberty issue to be avoided in Georgia politics.

It is likely all but a foregone conclusion at this point that some type of high-profile religious liberty legislation will be passed and signed into Georgia state law (most likely sometime during the 2019 session of the Georgia General Assembly) after a new governor is elected in 2018.

Religious liberty is an issue that burns white-hot with the Republican Party's base of socially and religiously conservative voters who continue to be a dominant part of Georgia's electorate even with the ongoing demographic changes in the state.

The best hope for those who oppose a religious liberty bill is that a more moderate GOP candidate (like a Casey Cagle or a Hunter Hill) is elected governor and pushes for and signs into law a religious liberty bill that does not antagonize and alienate the business community (or at the very least for a religious liberty bill that does the least amount of antagonization and alienation to the business community).

If a more conservative GOP candidate is elected governor (like a Michael Williams who is running a Trump-style outer-suburban/exurban oriented campaign or a Brian Kemp who is running a Trump-style rural-oriented campaign), the likelihood is that the state will see a much stronger religious liberty bill passed and signed into law than many business stakeholders (particularly in metro Atlanta) will like.

[jero23]

Religious Freedom Bill will poison the well for any true economic development that will continue to attract the most talented of the young professionals. Georgia will be in the same boat as North Carolina...

[whodean]

Originally Posted by jero23

Georgia will be in the same boat as North Carolina...

Nope. Not if the law was worded the way Cagle says he believes:

Cagle said he "will not stand for discrimination in any form" if elected governor

"I believe that our current law and our current constitution - both state and federal - does protect our religious liberties," he said. "But if there is a problem, then I will be a governor that will seek to find a solution to that."

And

As governor, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle would sign a “religious liberty” bill—but not one that allows for discrimination

That's not anything like the NC fiasco.