Could LA's exodus happen here?

[bu2]

Originally Posted by 2Easy

I don’t know how much overlap there needs to be, but those areas are already very interconnected. I think that sometimes the census gets it wrong. Like with Raleigh and Durham in the Triangle. Those two cities literally border each other but are in two different MSA’s.

The BosWash megapolis pretty much borders each other from Boston to DC. It has to do with the overlap of employment.

As for the definition, this is the best I could find. Written in Bureaucrat, but basically it takes 25% employment cross-over to be included in an MSA together. The Consolidated areas require 15% crossover. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov..._standards.pdf

[2Easy]

Originally Posted by bu2

The BosWash megapolis pretty much borders each other from Boston to DC. It has to do with the overlap of employment.

As for the definition, this is the best I could find. Written in Bureaucrat, but basically it takes 25% employment cross-over to be included in an MSA together. The Consolidated areas require 15% crossover. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov..._standards.pdf

Thanks. I think that Raleigh and Durham are unique in that the two main cities of different MSAs actually border each other.

I think that when you have definitions for areas that run counter to how the local population perceives that area, then those definitions become less useful and maybe even confusing. But there could be similar issues with any definition (CSA, urban area, etc).

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by walker1962

In a nutshell with only a 3rd of the verbiage needed, Atlanta has and will continue to attract citizens from elsewhere due to COL, weather, scenery and a good job market. That said, sorry but Pew Institute is NOT showing people from L.A. moving this far east. Utah, Arizona, Texas and Colorado due to proximity and actually are getting the bulk of the relocation.

That is a good point that Western states like Utah, Arizona, Texas (like I noted in my post) and Colorado are getting the bulk of transplants from Southern California.

But the migration of much of the Southern California-based Television and Film Production industry from Los Angeles to Atlanta (along with the presence of such Southern California-based dishes as 'Chicken and Waffles' on the menus of Atlanta-area soul food restaurants is pretty strong and undeniable evidence that people are moving as far east as Atlanta from Los Angeles.

Not to mention some of the relocation inquiries that we get right here on the Atlanta Forum from people looking to move here from Southern California because of the lower cost-of-living here.

Anecdotally speaking, I personally have about a dozen friends and family members who have moved to Atlanta from Southern California over the past couple of decades.

In addition to that, Atlanta's status as a national mecca for African-Americans attracts many black transplants from Southern California who move to Atlanta seeking a lower cost-of-living and a higher quality-of-life.

Southern Californians obviously do not move to Atlanta in the same numbers that they may move to points farther west (like to points around the Western U.S. and Texas)... But Southern Californians do move to Atlanta in numbers that are noticeable and undeniable as evidenced by the growing (and dominant) presence of the Southern California-based Television and Film Production industry in the Atlanta area along with the growing presence of many transplanted Southern California TV/Film industry professionals in South metro Atlanta areas like Fayette and Coweta counties.

Originally Posted by walker1962

Second, the Atlanta MSA is NOT 6.5Million. I see folks from the area always inflating its growth. It's more like 5.5million.

The 6.5 million figure is the approximate U.S. Census 2016 population estimate (6,451,262 to be exact) of the 39-county Atlanta CSA (Combined Statistical Area which includes both the Athens and Gainesville MSA's).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combin...tistical_areas

Like others have stated, your statement that the population of the Atlanta MSA is 5.5 million appears to be incorrect.

The U.S. Census 2016 population estimate for the 29-county Atlanta MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) is 5,789,700 (or just under 5.8 million).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...#United_States

Originally Posted by walker1962

Third, the metro area has not changed NEARLY as much as those who live there believe. See my other post with map of the ten metro areas who have changed the most the last ten years - Charlotte, Raleigh and Nashville are the southeastern MSAs who made the list. Four metros in Texas, Denver, Portland, and Seattle round out the top 10. This is actually good because housing affordability is still good but at the same time, if you are in Georgia gov't, you have to ask, why is ATL not in that list?

The Atlanta metro area appears to have gone through some significant changes over the last 10 years.

Going back 10 years to 2007, the Atlanta metro area went from a period of relative boom and prosperity in the mid-late 2000's into a period of significant economic struggle starting with the Great Recession in 2008 where foreclosed and abandoned homes numbered into the tens-of-thousands amidst a struggling job market deep into the current decade of the 2010's.

Going back even farther to the turn of the Millennium (2000) and before, the Atlanta metro area has changed even more as evidenced by the dramatic demographic shifts in the City of Atlanta proper (from an overwhelmingly majority-black population towards a majority-white population in the not-too-distant future) and in domineering Northside suburban counties like Cobb, North Fulton and (especially) Gwinnett where the population has gone from overwhelmingly majority-white before 2000 towards majority-minority status as of the late 2010's.

In addition to continued increases in overcrowding, severe traffic congestion and crime, many metro Atlanta suburbs have also experienced a noticeable rise in poverty since the turn of the Millennium.

But with the stunning explosive booms in the city/metro's Technology and TV/Film industries; the continued national/international dominance of the city's music scene; the continued dominance of the Atlanta Airport (as the world's busiest airport); the high-profile corporate relocations into the area (by companies like Porsche and Mercedes-Benz); the positive national buzz created by major events such as the high-profile construction of new pro-sports stadiums for the Braves (SunTrust Park) and the Falcons (Mercedes-Benz Stadium), the start of play of a Major League Soccer franchise in the city (Atlanta United), the awarding to the city of multiple major sporting events (such as continued hosting duties for the SEC Championship Game, the 2019 Super Bowl, College Football Playoff National Semifinal and Final games, and additional NCAA Men's Basketball Final Fours); and the city/metro's apparent frontrunner status in the competition for Amazon's second North American headquarters, the Atlanta metro area appears to have emerged from its mighty struggles of the Great Recession era in an even stronger position than it was before the Great Recession.

[AnsleyPark]

Exodus Starts: Millennials Ditch City Life | Zero Hedge

[testa50]

Originally Posted by AnsleyPark

Exodus Starts: Millennials Ditch City Life | Zero Hedge

That's a trash article, drawing completely incorrect conclusions and proudly telegraphs its bias in the first sentence: The urban revival of America’s core inner cities has been a decades-long failed experiment.

How so? Compare LITERALLY ANY AMERICAN CITY not named Detroit to St Louis in 1990 and 2017 and you'll see a night and day difference. Vastly more investment and vibrancy.

"Final nail in the coffin" talk is just idiocy. There are obvious, uninteresting statistical reasons for the number of Millennials flatlining in almost every city.

Millennials are the generation between 1980~1985 and 1995~2000. Say 1983 to 1998 for simplicity. That means they're between 19 and 34 right now. The typical trajectory is that someone first moves into an inner city when they're young, probably between 18 and 24. Some will stay, and some will leave.

So you're getting a dwindling supply of Millennials who are at the age where they would typically be moving into a city. And you're getting an increasing supply of Millennials who are pushing out the other end. That's certain to happen even if the patterns of Millennials remain identical or become even more urban-focused over time.

There's a new generation after Millennials. Generation Z perhaps, or something else. The population of these people living in cities will skyrocket in the next few years, since only a handful of them are old enough to be their own households currently. Notice how a few years ago there was one private sector student highrise in Atlanta between Downtown and Midtown. Three more have been built in the past two years, with three further ones being built right now. The early feedback is that this next generation cares a heck of a lot more about living in cities than Millennials did.

[AnsleyPark]

I knew that article would generate good commentary here! Thanks for the observations. I do tend to agree with you.

[architect77]

Atlanta's film industry is booming because of changing dynamics in the movie-making business.

With ticket sales declining and A list actors' ~$20 million paychecks, a substantial cut in production costs became the basis of the new financials for movie-making today, which must be profitable enough to lure investors.

The fact that it exists here at all can be traced back to Dino Delaurentis who moved to Wilmington, NC in the early eighties.

He opened a small studio and produced a few notable films, such as Stephen King's "Christine" among others.

The industry quickly learned that the South East provides a wide-range of backdrops and settings.

The lack of unions and cheap labor and substantial reimbursement of 25% of production costs returned by a single check from NC was too good to pass up. Many movies and television shows took advantage of the lower costs and that's how the industry got started here.

NC's leadership changed and the incentives dropped to almost nothing, effectively sending everything to Georgia, who was already gaining some momentum on its own.

Also, NC was a little too sleepy for the mass of Hollywood types to permanently relocate. Atlanta, though, has the same big-city mindset as LA and NY and much more stuff to do than NC's smaller, more family-oriented atmosphere.

Georgia ought to reign in the incentives now, because the industry is firmly planted here with more than enough momentum.

The industry also congregates at many other low cost locales like Romania and Canada, too.