Will there be any gentrifiable neighborhoods left in Atlanta in 10 years? (White: 2015, apartment complexes)

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Who will be forcing these people out to the suburbs? The Gestapo? There are plenty of homes in the CoA that are under 400k. What you really mean is people won't be able to live in hot exciting trendy neighborhoods which there is nothing wrong with. It isn't a right to live in any neighborhood.

Gentrification is tricky. It's really quite nuanced and you can both be correct. As an example:

If I live in a high crime, not desirable community that's very affordable, and I decide to invest in it. I fix up my house, enocurage parents to take part in school, sponsor cleanups, and help start programs that keeps kids out of trouble. Over time, crime rates drop and "pioneers" move in, adding a catalyst to my work. Fast forward 10 years, and investors want to tear down my house for a mcmansion and neighbors complain my home isn't nice enough for the street. Is that fair? Don't I deserve to stay and be happy and enjoy my hard work?

Yes, those people DO deserve to live in that hot trendy neighborhood they helped make.

On the flip side, a low income person moving ITP does not "deserve" to move to the hottest most expensive part of town, no more than they "deserve" a luxury car, first class flights and vacations, etc. If they earn them and buy them, they can have them, but it's not a right to live in Ansley Park if your income is 20k a year, provided there is safe, clean, acceptable housing available somewhere else.

[Otakumaster]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Who will be forcing these people out to the suburbs? The Gestapo? There are plenty of homes in the CoA that are under 400k. What you really mean is people won't be able to live in hot exciting trendy neighborhoods which there is nothing wrong with. It isn't a right to live in any neighborhood.

Try to keep up.

If the homes are still “affordable “ (under 300k for GA standards and average pay)in any part of ITP that typically means it hasn’t gentrified yet.

This thread is about all of ITP getting gentrified in 10 years


Thus, logically many people will be priced out as those homes that are affordable now won’t be after the full gentrification happens.

[cqholt]

Not even all of ITB will be gentrified or on it's way in 10 years.

[JPD]

Originally Posted by cqholt

Not even all of ITB will be gentrified or on it's way in 10 years.

I think this is probably right. Folks on here don't seem to know how many neighborhoods there are in this city. There are some places where it's just never gonna happen.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by jeoff

I think traffic is much more of an incentive to move to the city than trendiness—and traffic is not going to get any better any time soon.

I think traffic is a consideration, but not the only one. Cost is a biggie. It is incredibly expensive to buy a traditional single family home in the close-in neighborhoods in Atlanta and the vast majority of working families won't be able to afford those. A lot of working parents would prefer to endure a slightly longer commute if it means they could afford to live in a bigger house and yard as opposed to say, a townhouse closer to work.

[Tarzanman]

Yes. Economies cycle. Atlanta is enjoying a boom right now, but that was after almost a decade of the city enduring a higher-than-the-national average unemployment rate.

If and when people have to leave the city to find jobs then many of these gentrifying areas run the risk of sliding back towards economic depression.

[equinox63]

Originally Posted by JPD

I think this is probably right. Folks on here don't seem to know how many neighborhoods there are in this city. There are some places where it's just never gonna happen.

I don't disagree. But I'm just curious about what you would consider a "never gonna happen" neighborhood?

I would have probably said the Bluff, but its so much proposed development around there, it's hard to say. And ten years is a relatively long time. If someone told me in 2008 that West End would be the way it is now, I don't think I would believe it.

Perhaps my view of gentrification is lesser than what others think. I think Grant Park, EAV, and O4W are all very gentrified right now, while others are saying they still have a ways to go. I think poorer people and minorities can still live in gentrified areas... but I think for many the standard seems to be if it's not Inman Park or Ansley Park, then, it's not gentrified.

Quick question for the group, in what year(s) did EAV become "gentrified"? Or has it?

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Otakumaster

Try to keep up.

If the homes are still “affordable “ (under 300k for GA standards and average pay)in any part of ITP that typically means it hasn’t gentrified yet.

This thread is about all of ITP getting gentrified in 10 years


Thus, logically many people will be priced out as those homes that are affordable now won’t be after the full gentrification happens.

Sounds like you don't know how gentrification works. The idea is to move into an area BEFORE it gets in demand. That way you can stay or sell and be rewarded with all the equity which you get to keep and move somewhere else of your choosing. You nor I have the right to live in any neighborhood if we can't afford it. The idea that the whole city will be 'gentrified' in the next 10 years is idiotic anyway. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft could all move here and the whole city still wouldn't be gentrified.

[Otakumaster]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Sounds like you don't know how gentrification works. The idea is to move into an area BEFORE it gets in demand. That way you can stay or sell and be rewarded with all the equity which you get to keep and move somewhere else of your choosing. You nor I have the right to live in any neighborhood if we can't afford it. The idea that the whole city will be 'gentrified' in the next 10 years is idiotic anyway. Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft could all move here and the whole city still wouldn't be gentrified.

You decribed the early stages of it. That doesn’t dismiss the fact that at some point the homes won’t be “affordable “ to the average Georgian once all the early people sell and thus those left behind will have to live in the suburbs.

Not sure why you keep bringing up some strawman about being “owed” a place to live. I never said anyone had a right to anything in this thread.

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by equinox63

I don't disagree. But I'm just curious about what you would consider a "never gonna happen" neighborhood?

I would have probably said the Bluff, but its so much proposed development around there, it's hard to say. And ten years is a relatively long time. If someone told me in 2008 that West End would be the way it is now, I don't think I would believe it.

Perhaps my view of gentrification is lesser than what others think. I think Grant Park, EAV, and O4W are all very gentrified right now, while others are saying they still have a ways to go. I think poorer people and minorities can still live in gentrified areas... but I think for many the standard seems to be if it's not Inman Park or Ansley Park, then, it's not gentrified.

Quick question for the group, in what year(s) did EAV become "gentrified"? Or has it?

I'll bite. I don't think an area is gentrified, generally, until it's considered safe, has better than average public schools, strong public and private investment, is "well-kept" and pleasing to the eye, and strong demand. Safe generally means you only deal with nuisance crime, such as car break ins, and not major crimes like armed robberies or home break ins.

I don't think EAV is fully gentrified. It still has pockets of violent crime and quite a few home break ins/robberies. I think it's about 65% there.

Minority status does not enter the equation. It's unfortunate that there is a correlation, but there are also many areas that are fully gentrified or close while still being diverse.