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Old Yesterday, 07:02 AM
 
Location: atlanta
4,110 posts, read 4,710,612 times
Reputation: 3431

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This is just kind of a general thing I've been thinking about recently. Five years ago we were talking about Atlanta and Charlotte eventually merging into one giant megacity, Atlanta eventually becoming a metro of ~10 million, and we've kind of just expected this would just happen eventually because everything was running smoothly and had been for years.

What if we're wrong about our projections? The projections are entirely based on the general growth pattern of the 50s through the early 2010s continuing to occur, but it seems like things are shifting. To me, that future seems a lot less certain than it did five years ago. We talk a lot about sustainability in terms of the environment being affected negatively. What if it gets to the point where its affecting *us* so negatively that continuing in this same direction is no longer possible? I mean this in an incredibly broad sense, in terms of technology, the environment, the economy, our social connections, even things like education.

It seems like, at least from my perspective, that we're entering a time period where the systems as we know them can't continue to grow because of basic human limitations. If we're spending so much of our lives in traffic, a third of our lives in education before we can start working, hours on social media, etc., it seems like it's going to eventually require more out of us than is practical. Like we're building an ever-growing machine that eventually gets too complicated for us to be able to run. Does anyone else feel like this or is this just me overthinking again?

I have admittedly not been in a great thought space, worrying about all of this. I don't think it *has* to be doom and gloom though, that maybe this is a blessing in disguise. I just want to throw it out to y'all, where do you see Atlanta being in 15 years given the context of the increasing isolationist sentiment from the overwhelming nature of it all, whether that's manifested in Trump, Brexit, the backlash against big tech, etc.?

Last edited by bryantm3; Yesterday at 07:12 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 07:13 AM
 
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Quote:
Five years ago we were talking about Atlanta and Charlotte eventually merging into one giant megacity
Well, whoever said this is an idiot. The cities are about 250 miles apart. So if you're going to say something like that, you may as well say Los Angeles and Las Vegas are going to merge into a megacity or Houston and Dallas are going to.

Having said that, I do think Atlanta has pretty well reached the extent to how far out it can grow, at least on the north side. Growth projections beyond where we are now probably included some vision of improved transportation modes. Or at the very least, new roads to handle the volume. We've seen neither.

I think you might be suffering from a little bit of Atlantitis. While your fears for the future may very well come true for our city, that doesn't mean humankind is going to come to an end. It just means Atlanta may not be well-equipped to deal with how people work and live in the future.... so some other city that is will experience the growth instead.

As you know, the economy is highly cyclical and the pendulum swings back and forth. That's not just true for economics, it's true for every aspect of life as we know it. Think about how different things are today from where they were 20 years ago...and if you really want your mind blown, go back 35 years. Watch the Breakfast Club. Look at how grossed out Bender was by Claire eating sushi. Now, you couldn't find anybody grossed out by sushi if you went to Arab, Alabama.

Things change fast. It will be extremely interesting to see how Atlanta fares in the next big economic downturn, which should be coming within a few years.
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Old Yesterday, 07:18 AM
 
Location: atlanta
4,110 posts, read 4,710,612 times
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Feel free to tell me I'm just crazy too, frankly I'd rather that be the answer because it would mean I'm blowing things out of proportion and projecting my own personal issues onto the world.
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Old Yesterday, 07:28 AM
 
Location: atlanta
4,110 posts, read 4,710,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
Well, whoever said this is an idiot. The cities are about 250 miles apart. So if you're going to say something like that, you may as well say Los Angeles and Las Vegas are going to merge into a megacity or Houston and Dallas are going to.
i think it's pretty crazy too but it was a big thing a few years ago that everybody was saying was a near certainty.
Researchers predict the formation of a mega region. Welcome to Char-lanta, y’all.
Quote:

I think you might be suffering from a little bit of Atlantitis. While your fears for the future may very well come true for our city, that doesn't mean humankind is going to come to an end. It just means Atlanta may not be well-equipped to deal with how people work and live in the future.... so some other city that is will experience the growth instead.
this makes sense to me.

Quote:
Think about how different things are today from where they were 20 years ago...and if you really want your mind blown, go back 35 years. Watch the Breakfast Club. Look at how grossed out Bender was by Claire eating sushi. Now, you couldn't find anybody grossed out by sushi if you went to Arab, Alabama.

Things change fast. It will be extremely interesting to see how Atlanta fares in the next big economic downturn, which should be coming within a few years.
i've been thinking about that a lot. it's made me appreciate both how far we've come and how easy things can swing in the other direction if we start to think everything's been set in stone and history is over. this is a really good video on this topic i saw the other day from a history professor at yale:


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Old Yesterday, 07:29 AM
 
8,021 posts, read 9,864,166 times
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I think you're just seeing life how it happens, and that comes with age after you've been around a little bit. Cities fall in and out of favor.

In the 80s, Los Angeles was the promised land... valley girls, mansions, parties, sun, fun, beach, etc. One the other hand, New York was a total sewer. Filth, crime, crummy weather, etc. Of course, it was still the hub of business and some entertainment....but few young people with a choice to live in LA or NY would select NY. Things are kind of opposite now.

It's just the way things go.
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Old Yesterday, 07:33 AM
 
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If you really want to see how fast things can change and how easy it is to happen, seek a miniseries from the early 80s called V. It was a huge deal at the time, but kind of fell by the wayside as 80s schlocky scifi.

However, that is a very unfair characterization. V is about how quickly societies can turn from freedom into totalitarianism. The creator originally wanted it to be about a new wave of Naziism, but it was decided nobody would believe Nazis could take over the U.S. in the 80s. So they used aliens instead, but the principle is exactly the same. It really lays out an ideal picture of how it can happen anywhere...even here.
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Old Yesterday, 07:43 AM
 
946 posts, read 871,533 times
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Seems like you brought up two related but different things: 1) where will ATL be in 15 years, and 2) technology and the pace of change in the last decade has been crazy, how can it sustain itself, it's blowing my mind just thinking about where life will be in 15 years, much less 50.

1) ATL and Charlotte will be no where near eachother, I'm guessing ATL might have 7M people? Since a lot of large-scale transit projects can take 10 years to envision and execute, and we don't have much in the pipeline, I don't think that aspect will look too different in the future.

2)Yes, the last 10 years have seen a crazy amount of change, especially when you consider the way the smartphone has changed certain dynamics. Change + uncertainty can feel really uncomfortable. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to predict that my children may never need a drivers license, cars may all be self-driving and on demand at that point. It actually blows my mind thinking about what the world will look like when I'm my parent's age, it can actually be too much to think about at times. But as ATLTJL mentioned, pendulums swing back in both directions, and there's a lot of debate about whether the "change" growth curve is exponential or an "S curve," implying that there will be a natural leveling off as humans are adaptable.

Sorry, I know we're getting really off topic from ATL at this point, and sorry if I misinterpreted your statement.
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Old Yesterday, 07:49 AM
 
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These fears of technology are not new.

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Old Yesterday, 07:54 AM
 
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My predictions:

*Atlanta's growth rate will slow down from its explosive pace, but it will still grow at a moderate pace.

*Provided the CON law is repealed and it can attract at least one major corporate HQ or Manufacturing complex (I.E. VW in Chattanooga or BMV in Spartanburg), Coweta County will become the "IT" part of Metro Atlanta over the next couple of decades.

*College Park will evolve into another edge city similar to Sandy Springs and Cumberland as the Airport City project takes off.

*Henry County will reach critical mass at roughly 300,000 and its growth rate will then slow due to its road infrastructure being over capacity, flight from Clayton County leading to declining property values/school quality and its lack of employment diversity (it will also be hit hardest by automation in the logistics field).

*Synovus will relocate from Columbus to Atlanta, possibly buying SunTrust Plaza once it's put up for sale.

*The metro population will only be just over 7 million by 2035.

*At least one major film company will relocate its HQ to Metro Atlanta.

*Atlanta proper will continue to densify and its population will increase to over 600,000 by 2035.

*Turner will officially move its HQ to NYC within the next 5 years.

*Cox Enterprise will be acquired by a major conglomerate within the next decade.

*Southlake Mall and Stonecrest Mall will close.

*Georgia will finally become a purple state by 2024.

*Several underperformimg malls will either be converted to housing or food halls.

*The Weather Channel will gradually ride off into the sunset and end its broadcasts.

*The State of Georgia will get serious about funding commuter rail within the next 5-10 years (roughly when I suspect the nect recession will take a big toll on the local economy) and by 2035 lines will be running along some of the CSX/Norfolk Southern rail tracks.

*Georgia Tech's profile as a formidable STEM University will continue to rise.

*There will be light rail on the beltline between now and 2035.

*Atlanta will be the 8th largest metro in the country by 2035, behind Miami, D.C., Houston, Dallas, Chicago, LA and NYC.

*Forsyth County will become Atlanta's Loudoun County.

I-20 and I-85 will finally be widen to 3 lanes between now and 2030 from the SC to AL borders.

There will be more logistics growth along I-85 between Anderson, SC and Atlanta, but it still won't quite be an entirely urbanized stretch.

*Gainesville will become part of Atlanta's MSA between now and 2035.

*Dawson County's population will triple between now and 2035, as it experience a massive housing booom from retirees fleeing Atlanta and its sprawl.

*Atlanta will continue to experience healthy growth in back office support employment.

Last edited by citidata18; Yesterday at 08:05 AM..
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Old Yesterday, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Johns Creek area
9,788 posts, read 8,955,069 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
My predictions:

*Atlanta's growth rate will slow down from its explosive pace, but it will still grow at a moderate pace.

*Provided the CON law is repealed and it can attract at least one major corporate HQ or Manufacturing complex (I.E. VW in Chattanooga or BMV in Spartanburg), Coweta County will become the "IT" part of Metro Atlanta over the next couple of decades.

*College Park will evolve into another edge city similar to Sandy Springs and Cumberland as the Airport City project takes off.

*Henry County will reach critical mass at roughly 300,000 and its growth rate will then slow due to its road infrastructure being over capacity, flight from Clayton County leading to declining property values/school quality and its lack of employment diversity (it will also be hit hardest by automation in the logistics field).

*Synovus will relocate from Columbus to Atlanta, possibly buying SunTrust Plaza once it's put up for sale.

*The metro population will only be just over 7 million by 2035.

*At least one major film company will relocate its HQ to Metro Atlanta.

*Atlanta proper will continue to densify and its population will increase to over 600,000 by 2035.

*Turner will officially move its HQ to NYC within the next 5 years.

*Cox Enterprise will be acquired by a major conglomerate within the next decade.

*Southlake Mall and Stonecrest Mall will close.

*Georgia will finally become a purple state by 2024.

*Several underperformimg malls will either be converted to housing or food halls.

*The Weather Channel will gradually ride off into the sunset and end its broadcasts.

*The State of Georgia will get serious about funding commuter rail within the next 5-10 years (roughly when I suspect the nect recession will take a big toll on the local economy) and by 2035 lines will be running along some of the CSX/Norfolk Southern rail tracks.

*Georgia Tech's profile as a formidable STEM University will continue to rise.

*There will be light rail on the beltline between now and 2035.

*Atlanta will be the 8th largest metro in the country by 2035, behind Miami, D.C., Houston, Dallas, Chicago, LA and NYC.

*Forsyth County will become Atlanta's Loudoun County.

I-20 and I-85 will finally be widen to 3 lanes between now and 2030 from the SC to AL borders.

There will be more logistics growth along I-85 between Anderson, SC and Atlanta, but it still won't quite be an entirely urbanized stretch.

*Gainesville will become part of Atlanta's MSA between now and 2035.

*Dawson County's population will triple between now and 2035, as it experience a massive housing booom from retirees fleeing Atlanta and its sprawl.

*Atlanta will continue to experience healthy growth in back office support employment.
You forgot the most important prediction: UGA will win College Football's national championship by 2024!
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