2019 ITP Population Estimates? (Atlanta, Sandy Springs, Roswell: neighborhoods, college, zip codes)

[isawooty]

I really wish there was an official count of the population inside of 285. Since there isn’t, Georgians, what do you think the ITP population is as of May 2019?

I would guess that at least 600,000 of the 1.1 million in Fulton are ITP and I’d say at least 350k of DeKalb are inside the perimeter. That alone would be 950,000. I want others input, especially BU, LD, Mutiny, Aries, Oobie, Ansley, Born2 and others.

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by isawooty

I really wish there was an official count of the population inside of 285. Since there isn’t, Georgians, what do you think the ITP population is as of May 2019?

I would guess that at least 600,000 of the 1.1 million in Fulton are ITP and I’d say at least 350k of DeKalb are inside the perimeter. That alone would be 950,000. I want others input, especially BU, LD, Mutiny, Aries, Oobie, Ansley, Born2 and others.

For Fulton specifically,
I personally believe well over 600k as ITP Fulton is much denser than N.Fulton

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

For Fulton specifically,
I personally believe well over 600k as ITP Fulton is much denser than N.Fulton

Well you have the tri-cities: East Point has about 35k, College Park 18k, Hapeville 7k, the new City of South Fulton might have a pocket or two that creeps ITP but I don't think it is much. So let's say 60k in that SW corner outside the COA.

Atlanta in DeKalb I would guess at 45K. So you have to subtract that from Atlanta. Guessing that Atlanta might be around 485k now, that leaves Atlanta in Fulton around 440k, but remember that sections of College Park and East Point as well as a sizeable chunk of SW Atlanta are OTP. So I think it is generous to say that Atlanta in Fulton and the remaining SW portions of Fulton ITP are 500k.

That leaves Sandy Springs ITP. The whole of Sandy Springs is just over 100k. Just guessing, I would say that a fourth to a third of that is ITP, much less dense than Roswell and Alpharetta and John's Creek. Much of it is estate sized residential.

I say you are well shy of 600k in Fulton ITP. Maybe 530k.

[cwkimbro]

I looked at this about 5 years ago using census tract data, which doesn't conform perfectly to freeways, but is close.

The amount comes to about 750,000... Total.

ITP is a mixed bag. Parts are denser, but there are also large parts that aren't and parts where the land use is largely non-residential.

There is also a large difference between what is inside and outside of the Belt line. The Itp suburbs outside the belt line were originally developed fairly sparse, even compared to many OTP areas

[meep]

Originally Posted by Saintmarks

Well you have the tri-cities: East Point has about 35k, College Park 18k, Hapeville 7k, the new City of South Fulton might have a pocket or two that creeps ITP but I don't think it is much. So let's say 60k in that SW corner outside the COA.

Atlanta in DeKalb I would guess at 45K. So you have to subtract that from Atlanta. Guessing that Atlanta might be around 485k now, that leaves Atlanta in Fulton around 440k, but remember that sections of College Park and East Point as well as a sizeable chunk of SW Atlanta are OTP. So I think it is generous to say that Atlanta in Fulton and the remaining SW portions of Fulton ITP are 500k.

That leaves Sandy Springs ITP. The whole of Sandy Springs is just over 100k. Just guessing, I would say that a fourth to a third of that is ITP, much less dense than Roswell and Alpharetta and John's Creek. Much of it is estate sized residential.

I say you are well shy of 600k in Fulton ITP. Maybe 530k.

Not all of east Point and college park are outside of 285, there are parts south Cobb that ITP too. A significant part of Dekalb as well. Even parts of riverdale. It’s a really hard question answer.

[isawooty]

Originally Posted by Saintmarks

Well you have the tri-cities: East Point has about 35k, College Park 18k, Hapeville 7k, the new City of South Fulton might have a pocket or two that creeps ITP but I don't think it is much. So let's say 60k in that SW corner outside the COA.

Atlanta in DeKalb I would guess at 45K. So you have to subtract that from Atlanta. Guessing that Atlanta might be around 485k now, that leaves Atlanta in Fulton around 440k, but remember that sections of College Park and East Point as well as a sizeable chunk of SW Atlanta are OTP. So I think it is generous to say that Atlanta in Fulton and the remaining SW portions of Fulton ITP are 500k.

That leaves Sandy Springs ITP. The whole of Sandy Springs is just over 100k. Just guessing, I would say that a fourth to a third of that is ITP, much less dense than Roswell and Alpharetta and John's Creek. Much of it is estate sized residential.

I say you are well shy of 600k in Fulton ITP. Maybe 530k.

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

I looked at this about 5 years ago using census tract data, which doesn't conform perfectly to freeways, but is close.

The amount comes to about 750,000... Total.

ITP is a mixed bag. Parts are denser, but there are also large parts that aren't and parts where the land use is largely non-residential.

There is also a large difference between what is inside and outside of the Belt line. The Itp suburbs outside the belt line were originally developed fairly sparse, even compared to many OTP areas

Im guilt of forgetting that a nice bit of SWATS is actually outside of 285, but like Meep said there are portions of Cobb and Clayton that are inside of 285 as well, as is a good portion of Dekalb. In Dekalbs case, I would say (outside of Dunwoody) a good portion of DeKalb’s population right now is ITP.

Was that 750,000 the population 5 years ago or now? Because if it was that then, surely it’s has to be more now.

[aries4118]

Hmmmm...this is hard. Or better, it would take some time to figure out.

Where are census tract/zip code fiends? They need to chime in.

[cwkimbro]

It was 5 years ago. To make matters a little more complicated the best data set you have will be estimates based off a 5 year long census survey, so the more accurate data based off better surveys isn't updated that fast or that often.

So it's best to look at what the most recent update is on the 5 year estimates.

Aries, I would't use zip codes and would stick with census tracts, unless they've changed alot. Too many straddle the line over too large of an area.

The reality is over a 10 year period your looking at a sub 10% growth rate, with the most recent years being the quickest growing.

My best guess would be around 800,000, give or take 20,000. And while a good portion of town has seen changes a large portion of itp has been stagnant, resisting change, limited greenfield development, and had issues with average household family size dropping with some aging neighborhoods, so I'd bet it's at the lower side of the estimate range.

We probably won't have better data until the the census comes out and even then it will be delayed by a couple years reporting those types of details to analyze by a year or two after it happens.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by meep

Not all of east Point and college park are outside of 285, there are parts south Cobb that ITP too. A significant part of Dekalb as well. Even parts of riverdale. It’s a really hard question answer.

The majority of East Point and College Park are ITP, why I included those rough off-the-top-of-my-head estimates in my figures. The OP was just asking for Fulton and DeKalb ITP, didn't mention Cobb or Clayton portions, so didn't try to figure that out.