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Old 08-26-2019, 08:40 PM
 
3,507 posts, read 5,162,280 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
Yeah, no chance of that happening.

It's adjacent to the epicenter of Georgia's tech industry plus Lake Lanier, it's in close proximity to the North Georgia Mountains, it has some of the lowest property taxes in all of Metro Atlanta and some of the best schools in Georgia.

It couldn't stop growing and prospering if it wanted to.

My schools I'm zoned for are & the rankings per schooldigger.com.

Sharon #6
South Forsyth Middle School #2
South Forsyth High School #9

My property taxes are $4196, but let's see how I am reassessed this year.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:41 PM
 
8,429 posts, read 10,407,041 times
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Quote:
It couldn't stop growing and prospering if it wanted to.
You really believe that? It's a very dangerous thought to have and the reality is OF COURSE IT COULD.

Of course, Cumming is probably a reasonably safe bet. But for a realtor to try to estimate what property values will do over the next five years is completely asinine. And to say you'll get back every dollar you put into a house? Well, that's plain stupid. You almost NEVER get back the money you put into a house, unless you add conditioned square footage. Any increase in value you see will be due to the natural upward trend of the market, you will never get back the full portion of what you put into upgrades. This is common knowledge, and for your realtor to suggest otherwise is the real estate equivalent of malpractice. Of course, what upgrades will do is help you sell the home faster.

The Great Recession hit all sorts of areas that were prosperous. Even country clubs were in real trouble because everybody started quitting. Real estate is like any other investment. You can minimize risk by making smart moves, but nobody has a crystal ball and trying to time the market is a fool's errand.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:43 PM
 
3,507 posts, read 5,162,280 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
Cumming is on fire. I did something similar in Milton. Why anyone would pay $1.6M for brand new farmhouse style with shiplap and sliding barn doors escapes me. I got a resale custom built home that just needed some updating for a fraction of the price.
If you are above a million in Milton, that gets you a really nice house.
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Old 08-26-2019, 11:22 PM
 
3,805 posts, read 1,319,697 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLTJL View Post
You really believe that? It's a very dangerous thought to have and the reality is OF COURSE IT COULD.

Of course, Cumming is probably a reasonably safe bet. But for a realtor to try to estimate what property values will do over the next five years is completely asinine. And to say you'll get back every dollar you put into a house? Well, that's plain stupid. You almost NEVER get back the money you put into a house, unless you add conditioned square footage. Any increase in value you see will be due to the natural upward trend of the market, you will never get back the full portion of what you put into upgrades. This is common knowledge, and for your realtor to suggest otherwise is the real estate equivalent of malpractice. Of course, what upgrades will do is help you sell the home faster.

The Great Recession hit all sorts of areas that were prosperous. Even country clubs were in real trouble because everybody started quitting. Real estate is like any other investment. You can minimize risk by making smart moves, but nobody has a crystal ball and trying to time the market is a fool's errand.
The Great Recession was a once in a lifetime occurence with fundamentally different lending standards and excessive oversupply. In every other past receesion (including the years of 20% interest rates in the 1970s) housing held its value and even continued to increase in value.

And even in the unlikely event something like the Great Recession were to happen again in the next 5 years, the areas that are hit the least hardest are wealthy areas highest in demand. Cumming was less developed in 2008 than it is now, but looking at neighboring Alpharetta and East Cobb, they all saw small declines in home values compared to other parts of Metro Atlanta (see the Southside suburbs plus the I-20 suburbs) and were the fastest to recover those losses post-recessions.

We can get into a debate of what-ifs and technicalities all you want. The fact is it is true that land availability is increasingly at a premium in the area around Cumming, a ton of high-end developments are in the pipeline and (recession or not) stuff like the great schools, Lake Lanier and proximity to an employment center for tech jobs that attract people there aren't going away. All of these things put strong upward pressure on the local home values.

Now, a real lie IMO would be a RE agent saying an area is going to be the next hot spot and see a ton of development (something I've heard about other parts of Metro Atlanta) despite no evidence of that happening, or even evidence to the contrary (average to mediocre schools, buildable land that's been on the market forever, minimal or low quality job growth, etc.).

Last edited by citidata18; 08-26-2019 at 11:38 PM..
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Old 08-27-2019, 06:40 AM
 
3,507 posts, read 5,162,280 times
Reputation: 1573
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
The Great Recession was a once in a lifetime occurence with fundamentally different lending standards and excessive oversupply. In every other past receesion (including the years of 20% interest rates in the 1970s) housing held its value and even continued to increase in value.

And even in the unlikely event something like the Great Recession were to happen again in the next 5 years, the areas that are hit the least hardest are wealthy areas highest in demand. Cumming was less developed in 2008 than it is now, but looking at neighboring Alpharetta and East Cobb, they all saw small declines in home values compared to other parts of Metro Atlanta (see the Southside suburbs plus the I-20 suburbs) and were the fastest to recover those losses post-recessions.

We can get into a debate of what-ifs and technicalities all you want. The fact is it is true that land availability is increasingly at a premium in the area around Cumming, a ton of high-end developments are in the pipeline and (recession or not) stuff like the great schools, Lake Lanier and proximity to an employment center for tech jobs that attract people there aren't going away. All of these things put strong upward pressure on the local home values.

Now, a real lie IMO would be a RE agent saying an area is going to be the next hot spot and see a ton of development (something I've heard about other parts of Metro Atlanta) despite no evidence of that happening, or even evidence to the contrary (average to mediocre schools, buildable land that's been on the market forever, minimal or low quality job growth, etc.).
Can we throw a nuclear bomb on the fire?

HQ2!

If Amazon came a knocking for their 2nd HQ2, the entire 400 corridor would go up in flames. I was joking about HQ2 with my realtor & he told me I would have been looking at 2 bedroom condos in Cumming if HQ2 would have happened.

What are the big developments?
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:32 AM
 
1,855 posts, read 1,889,735 times
Reputation: 1704
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
The Great Recession was a once in a lifetime occurence with fundamentally different lending standards and excessive oversupply. In every other past receesion (including the years of 20% interest rates in the 1970s) housing held its value and even continued to increase in value.

And even in the unlikely event something like the Great Recession were to happen again in the next 5 years, the areas that are hit the least hardest are wealthy areas highest in demand. Cumming was less developed in 2008 than it is now, but looking at neighboring Alpharetta and East Cobb, they all saw small declines in home values compared to other parts of Metro Atlanta (see the Southside suburbs plus the I-20 suburbs) and were the fastest to recover those losses post-recessions.

We can get into a debate of what-ifs and technicalities all you want. The fact is it is true that land availability is increasingly at a premium in the area around Cumming, a ton of high-end developments are in the pipeline and (recession or not) stuff like the great schools, Lake Lanier and proximity to an employment center for tech jobs that attract people there aren't going away. All of these things put strong upward pressure on the local home values.

Now, a real lie IMO would be a RE agent saying an area is going to be the next hot spot and see a ton of development (something I've heard about other parts of Metro Atlanta) despite no evidence of that happening, or even evidence to the contrary (average to mediocre schools, buildable land that's been on the market forever, minimal or low quality job growth, etc.).
I agree with you that your home in Cumming is a good investment, however, I wouldn't say the Great Recession is a once in a lifetime occurrence--more like a twice in a lifetime occurrence. Atlanta's real estate market seems to go in a boom and bust cycle of 25-40ish years. 1865 was a particularly bad year for Atlanta. Panic of 1893 brought hard times as well. 1930s, also hard. 1970s, pretty miserable. . . Over the long term, your real estate is a great investment, but if you happen to need to sell during one of these tough spots, you could be hurting.
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Old 08-27-2019, 08:21 AM
 
920 posts, read 377,311 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
Yeah, no chance of that happening.

It's adjacent to the epicenter of Georgia's tech industry plus Lake Lanier, it's in close proximity to the North Georgia Mountains, it has some of the lowest property taxes in all of Metro Atlanta and some of the best schools in Georgia.

It couldn't stop growing and prospering if it wanted to.

You sound like someone in 2008 and 2009. Wait until people start losing their jobs and see what happens. Nothing is guaranteed.
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Old 08-27-2019, 11:09 AM
 
290 posts, read 177,686 times
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Not here in Alpharetta. I live close to the Avalon and I keep shrugging at town home listings for $700k+ that get sold in 1 to 2 months..
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Old 08-27-2019, 01:25 PM
 
3,507 posts, read 5,162,280 times
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Originally Posted by ronricks View Post
You sound like someone in 2008 and 2009. Wait until people start losing their jobs and see what happens. Nothing is guaranteed.
Will we hit a slowdown? Yes, nobody knows when.

Here is known fact, the northern suburbs are where upper middle class people go to have raise their kids. The reason are the schools, low crime, & low taxes. None of these 3 things are going to change in the next 20 years & these 3 things will continue to attract the upper middle class.

There really is no racial barrier either, it's broken down into income lines, I've noticed.
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Old 08-27-2019, 01:45 PM
 
8,429 posts, read 10,407,041 times
Reputation: 6566
Ok, just keep thinking that.

Go ahead and invest as much money as you want to upgrading the home. Don't worry... you'll get it all back. It's guaranteed!
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