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Old 08-28-2019, 07:35 PM
 
177 posts, read 103,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
Home prices fell 50% or more in a short period during the Great Recession. That isn't going to happen again anytime soon. In general the housing market is resilient to recession. We may have another recession thanks to the current leadership's sudden disregard for deficits and debt, as well as a pointless trade war with China...however a brief cooldown it stagnation in housing prices is the most likely outcome, not a 50% drop. Unless something absolutely insane happens, there will likely never again be <$400,000 4/3 homes in O4W, Midtown, Inman Park, Virginia Highland, etc.
Interesting, there were a few 4/3 renovated houses in Grant park earlier this month for under 400k.

 
Old 08-29-2019, 07:03 AM
 
553 posts, read 417,811 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLUTD View Post
I would be very concerned about my house value if I was living in a suburb right now. I doubt it "crashes" but suburbs are far from trendy, especially as inner city schools start getting "perceived as better" (read: higher test scores, more educated parents, rising white student population, etc). The one selling point the suburbs have rested their laurels on will be gone-zo pretty soon.

Why would you buy for the same price in East Cobb when you can buy in-town and get way more features?
Iím assuming your intention wasnít comedic but I laughed when I read this. So, thanks. Hint: itís OK to dislike the suburbs but the vast majority of the population, especially those who have children, donít view the world through the binary miasma of City=Good Suburbs=Bad juvenile bias.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 07:17 AM
 
1,204 posts, read 1,043,393 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BR Valentine View Post
Iím assuming your intention wasnít comedic but I laughed when I read this. So, thanks. Hint: itís OK to dislike the suburbs but the vast majority of the population, especially those who have children, donít view the world through the binary miasma of City=Good Suburbs=Bad juvenile bias.
I'm glad you called this out. I have no problem with city loving or suburb bashing, but to imply that everyone is in agreement that one obviously offers more than the other for the same amount of money is a bit silly. It's more about personal preferences and life stage than absolutes. The city benefits certain people, and the suburbs benefit others. And sometimes, its about life stage.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 07:31 AM
 
3,512 posts, read 5,166,245 times
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Living in the city with kids, I did this before with my older daughter.

Amenities are the biggest issue. Summertime taking your kid & friends to a pool, 1/2 the time the city pools are closed or understaffed so they have limited hours. Parks, it's a wash, usually the suburbs have better parks geared for children vs. active adults though. Sports, for kids still pay to play. The zoo & other attractions are just as accessible if I live in Forsyth or Fulton.

If I was single I would buy a single family house ITP, but I'm not. Yes schools in the city are improving, but a lot of times busing comes into play after elementary school, who wants to put their kid on a hour long bus ride to a school on the other side of the city for the top ranked middle school. Also the top school usually have a lottery system. In the suburbs the schools are across the street & there is no lottery.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 09:05 AM
 
1,441 posts, read 809,242 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BR Valentine View Post
Iím assuming your intention wasnít comedic but I laughed when I read this. So, thanks. Hint: itís OK to dislike the suburbs but the vast majority of the population, especially those who have children, donít view the world through the binary miasma of City=Good Suburbs=Bad juvenile bias.
There's some truth to it though. Generally close suburbs will always be desirable as they are basically well manicured extensions of the city. One day, though, it is not hard to imagine living directly in the city center as the most desirable, with prices decreasing as you go out. This is true of almost all other global cities, from London to Tokyo. If that happens, the exburbs may see prices fall due to lack of demand. There could also be an effect similar to the reverse of the urban white flight, where in this case the educated and high income of all races flee the suburbs for the "safer" cities, and suburbs begin to tick up in crime and tick down in school quality.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 09:10 AM
 
1,204 posts, read 1,043,393 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
There's some truth to it though. Generally close suburbs will always be desirable as they are basically well manicured extensions of the city. One day, though, it is not hard to imagine living directly in the city center as the most desirable, with prices decreasing as you go out. This is true of almost all other global cities, from London to Tokyo. If that happens, the exburbs may see prices fall due to lack of demand. There could also be an effect similar to the reverse of the urban white flight, where in this case the educated and high income of all races flee the suburbs for the "safer" cities, and suburbs begin to tick up in crime and tick down in school quality.
I don't doubt that generally speaking the closer in to the city center you go, the more expensive the housing (with plenty of individual exceptions based on crime, infrastructure, schools, etc.).

But it would be false to say that all desire this, AND you get more for your money like the post implied. In fact, that's what curbs the demand.......you get LESS for your money. That may be a good tradeoff for an individual, but to imply you get more or the same for your money is silly. One only has to look at avg price/sqf. to see that that is false.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 09:27 AM
 
553 posts, read 417,811 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
There's some truth to it though. Generally close suburbs will always be desirable as they are basically well manicured extensions of the city. One day, though, it is not hard to imagine living directly in the city center as the most desirable, with prices decreasing as you go out. This is true of almost all other global cities, from London to Tokyo. If that happens, the exburbs may see prices fall due to lack of demand. There could also be an effect similar to the reverse of the urban white flight, where in this case the educated and high income of all races flee the suburbs for the "safer" cities, and suburbs begin to tick up in crime and tick down in school quality.
Oh for goodness sake, could we please stop pretending our fantasies are reality? There will be pricy distant suburbs for the foreseeable future, especially in the US and especially in metro Atlanta. Versailles and the surrounding towns are distant by Parisian standards. That area also has some of priciest real estate in Ile-de-France. Atlanta is not at all comparable to London, Paris or Tokyo and it isnít going to be in any reasonable time frame. Forsyth is the fastest growing county in the metro and it has ever pricier real estate. The far northern reaches of Fulton County are already more expensive than most of ITP. The demise of the suburbs while greatly hoped for by the few isnít going to happen because of US public policy and the habits of the many.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 09:44 AM
 
5,284 posts, read 3,399,091 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLUTD View Post
I would be very concerned about my house value if I was living in a suburb right now. I doubt it "crashes" but suburbs are far from trendy, especially as inner city schools start getting "perceived as better" (read: higher test scores, more educated parents, rising white student population, etc). The one selling point the suburbs have rested their laurels on will be gone-zo pretty soon.

Why would you buy for the same price in East Cobb when you can buy in-town and get way more features?
This is pure fantasy. First of all, you will, in almost every case, get far more house and yard for your money in the suburbs than in town. And that is a feature that many, if not most, families are looking for. This idea that most families really want 800 square foot houses on postage stamp lots or high rise condos in some dense urban utopia, is fabricated.

City schools may be getting better, but they are nowhere close to most of the suburb schools, and it's a scant few of them. And I don't know what "features" you're referring to, but the suburbs offer plenty of "features" that appeal to families. Most families don't really care about access to theatre, art museums, or chef-to-plate trendy restaurants. They don't care about riding their scooters on the beltline to a trendy clothing store and following that up with a trip to the brewery.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Forhall View Post
There's some truth to it though. Generally close suburbs will always be desirable as they are basically well manicured extensions of the city. One day, though, it is not hard to imagine living directly in the city center as the most desirable, with prices decreasing as you go out. This is true of almost all other global cities, from London to Tokyo. If that happens, the exburbs may see prices fall due to lack of demand. There could also be an effect similar to the reverse of the urban white flight, where in this case the educated and high income of all races flee the suburbs for the "safer" cities, and suburbs begin to tick up in crime and tick down in school quality.
People in the US largely have different priorities and mindsets than people in older countries/world cities. The desire to live in tiny in-town spaces is just not nearly as dominant. And I tend to wonder how many people in those "global cities" actually want to live in those cramped spaces, or if that's just what it is. I know a family of four who lives in a small two-bedroom condo in the center of Midtown. They do live an active life, but I know for a fact that the mom really, really wants a bigger place, but the dad is trying to be all urbanist and refuses to move. They're always on top of each other. My wife and I would kill each other if we had to live like that.
 
Old 08-29-2019, 11:07 AM
 
1,855 posts, read 1,891,776 times
Reputation: 1704
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR Valentine View Post
Iím assuming your intention wasnít comedic but I laughed when I read this. So, thanks. Hint: itís OK to dislike the suburbs but the vast majority of the population, especially those who have children, donít view the world through the binary miasma of City=Good Suburbs=Bad juvenile bias.
When the high-density folks try to imagine having kids, they squint and can dimly see themselves pushing a baby in a stroller. They think: No problem! Their imaginations obviously don't see the big vile-smelling teenagers, otherwise they'd go for the extra bathrooms, parking spaces and big backyard. :
 
Old 08-29-2019, 12:53 PM
 
553 posts, read 417,811 times
Reputation: 903
Quote:
Originally Posted by samiwas1 View Post

People in the US largely have different priorities and mindsets than people in older countries/world cities. The desire to live in tiny in-town spaces is just not nearly as dominant. And I tend to wonder how many people in those "global cities" actually want to live in those cramped spaces, or if that's just what it is. I know a family of four who lives in a small two-bedroom condo in the center of Midtown. They do live an active life, but I know for a fact that the mom really, really wants a bigger place, but the dad is trying to be all urbanist and refuses to move. They're always on top of each other. My wife and I would kill each other if we had to live like that.
This. White college-educated households without children are the fastest growing population segment of high density US cities (NYC, SF, DC, Seattle, etc.). The population of households with school-age children has been declining for twenty years in those same cities. In fact, high density US cities are experiencing a declining birth rate faster than the country as a whole. The kind of boutique city that city fetishists so desire is mostly viewed as profoundly challenging by families with children, especially those with school-age children, for all but the absolutely most affluent households.

Moreover, a large portion of middle-class Europeans live in suburbs too for many of the same basic reasons as Americans, starting the price of real estate. Population growth in Euro metro areas has been decidedly outside of core urban areas for decades.
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