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Old 09-06-2019, 10:49 AM
 
2,494 posts, read 968,017 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
With that, its time to close the thread. You really can't fit 12 into an Accord.

Its become a bash religion thread.
Yeah I know I just thought it was funny based on how he related it.
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Old 09-06-2019, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Georgia native in McKinney, TX
7,781 posts, read 10,208,573 times
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Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
With that, its time to close the thread. You really can't fit 12 into an Accord.

Its become a bash religion thread.
Well, it was a stretch...
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Old 09-06-2019, 12:44 PM
 
10,818 posts, read 7,672,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walker1962 View Post
Source of 25,000 annual growth for the City of Atlanta? Not the metro area, the CITY. The city has never grown more 18% in ANY decade. Since 2010, its about 8,000/year.
That is based on the city reaching 1.2M in population in the coming years. Do the math on what sort of annual growth that would be. Also, how quickly growth is accelerating in the city.

https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/...boom-82369#ath
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Old 09-06-2019, 01:53 PM
 
5,320 posts, read 3,415,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsvh View Post
That is based on the city reaching 1.2M in population in the coming years. Do the math on what sort of annual growth that would be. Also, how quickly growth is accelerating in the city.

https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/...boom-82369#ath
That article says from 475,000 to 1.2 million in "the next decade or so". That's an increase of 725,000 in, say, 12 years. When I do the math, that comes to a growth of over 60,000 per year. Of course, he said this about two years ago, and we have since grown about 25,000. So, now we need to grow at a rate of 70,000 per year. For comparison, that's faster than all but eight states have grown in the past year.
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Old 09-06-2019, 01:59 PM
 
10,818 posts, read 7,672,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samiwas1 View Post
That article says from 475,000 to 1.2 million in "the next decade or so". That's an increase of 725,000 in, say, 12 years. When I do the math, that comes to a growth of over 60,000 per year. Of course, he said this about two years ago, and we have since grown about 25,000. So, now we need to grow at a rate of 70,000 per year. For comparison, that's faster than all but eight states have grown in the past year.

I believe the 1.2M is expected over 30 years (about 2050). That gets you to about 25k a year.


Edit: Here is one of the slides on that growth. Getting to 1.2M inside the city limits is not that radical. Still less dense than cities like DC, Chicago, and Vancouver are today.


Last edited by jsvh; 09-06-2019 at 02:12 PM..
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Old 09-06-2019, 01:59 PM
 
Location: Jonesboro
3,298 posts, read 3,294,324 times
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Default City of Atlanta, Cherokee....

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsvh View Post
That is based on the city reaching 1.2M in population in the coming years. Do the math on what sort of annual growth that would be. Also, how quickly growth is accelerating in the city.

https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/...boom-82369#ath
OMG! No wonder the City of Atlanta government is in such a mess overall given that there are people like Timothy Keane, the Atlanta Department of City Planning Commissioner, in high up positions!

Is it possible that Keane misspoke in that linked article from 2017 where he appeared at a Bisnow forum & said that the City of Atlanta should expect to grow from a population of 475,000 to 1.2 million "in the next decade or so"? I'm willing to give him an out via the possibility of that being a mistaken quotation that was not intended.
But, if he was indeed serious, it was the most idiotic, far-off-the-mark thing I've heard claimed by a major Atlanta official in years! Has anyone heard if he has since clarified or corrected his remarks?

Seriously folks, an expectation for that amount of growth in that tiny time frame defies logic!
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Old 09-06-2019, 03:15 PM
 
10,818 posts, read 7,672,333 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atler8 View Post
Is it possible that Keane misspoke in that linked article from 2017 where he appeared at a Bisnow forum & said that the City of Atlanta should expect to grow from a population of 475,000 to 1.2 million "in the next decade or so"? I'm willing to give him an out via the possibility of that being a mistaken quotation that was not intended.
But, if he was indeed serious, it was the most idiotic, far-off-the-mark thing I've heard claimed by a major Atlanta official in years! Has anyone heard if he has since clarified or corrected his remarks?
I mean, one third of the 73,000 people that moved into metro Atlanta last year living inside the city limits is not that radical at all. Especially if we build enough housing that it is an affordable option.

Also, don't forget that net migration of people from the suburbs to the core are not included in that 73k number that moved to the metro.

So: How many people do you expect to move from the suburbs to the city every year? Of the thousands that move to the metro every year, what percentage do you expect to prefer living in the city? Add those two numbers together and it is not hard to get to 25k a year / over a million in 25 years.

Also, Tim Keane is probably the best hire they city has made in the last decade. But he did not come up with this number. He merely joined the panel at Georgia Tech discussing how to prepare for this growth.

Last edited by jsvh; 09-06-2019 at 03:23 PM..
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Old 09-06-2019, 04:05 PM
 
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Also, some quick back-of-the-napkin math assuming CoA growth keeps increasing by 0.1% a year as it has been:

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Old 09-06-2019, 11:32 PM
 
1,515 posts, read 1,680,794 times
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,
Quote:
Originally Posted by atler8 View Post
OMG! No wonder the City of Atlanta government is in such a mess overall given that there are people like Timothy Keane, the Atlanta Department of City Planning Commissioner, in high up positions!

Is it possible that Keane misspoke in that linked article from 2017 where he appeared at a Bisnow forum & said that the City of Atlanta should expect to grow from a population of 475,000 to 1.2 million "in the next decade or so"? I'm willing to give him an out via the possibility of that being a mistaken quotation that was not intended.
But, if he was indeed serious, it was the most idiotic, far-off-the-mark thing I've heard claimed by a major Atlanta official in years! Has anyone heard if he has since clarified or corrected his remarks?

Seriously folks, an expectation for that amount of growth in that tiny time frame defies logic!
"In the next decade or so" is not a direct quote. To be clear, the 1.2 million projection is based on the city's share of the region's projected population in 2050 - 9 million. It's derived from the National Association of Realtors community preference survey in which 15% of metro Atlantans say they would choose a home in the city if it were an option. 15% of 9 million is 1.35 million. 15% of the current metro population is 900,000, which demonstrates how much pent up demand there is for intown housing.

Incidentally, at the time 39% of respondents said they would choose to live in a walkable community if it were an option, even in metro Atlanta. That percentage has grown in recent years as walkability has become a thing.
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Old Yesterday, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Jonesboro
3,298 posts, read 3,294,324 times
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Default City of Atlanta, ..

Quote:
Originally Posted by J2rescue View Post
,

"In the next decade or so" is not a direct quote. To be clear, the 1.2 million projection is based on the city's share of the region's projected population in 2050 - 9 million. It's derived from the National Association of Realtors community preference survey in which 15% of metro Atlantans say they would choose a home in the city if it were an option. 15% of 9 million is 1.35 million. 15% of the current metro population is 900,000, which demonstrates how much pent up demand there is for intown housing.

Incidentally, at the time 39% of respondents said they would choose to live in a walkable community if it were an option, even in metro Atlanta. That percentage has grown in recent years as walkability has become a thing.
Nevertheless in the Bisnow link "...in the next decade or so", is attributed to Keane as noted by their wording of "...he said."

It is inconsequential where the original material came from. That's not the point. If there is a "he said" attached to the words "in the next decade or so", it's attributable to Keane.

Surveys can be incisive but they can also be misleading &/or never amount to little more than a momentary snap shot of opinions or views.
As we know from the pitfalls of election polling, how people respond to surveys & polling must be held at arms length as being absolute truth upon which our expectations are grounded. Are they useful? Yes. But infallible? No.

As for the City of Atlanta specifically, it's multi-faceted sets of infrastructure are woefully inadequate & often functioning at unsatisfactory levels now so as to support it's resident AND it's daytime population. I see nothing to indicate that an honest appraisal of it's future level of built out infrastructure can meet the pie-in-the-sky population trends found in this thread & apparently derived from a real estate-centric source.
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