Is sprawl starting to slow in Atlanta? (Gainesville, Hartwell: transplants, real estate market)

[schmidt486]

I've been doing some research for a paper about a shift from suburbs back to the cities, and I was wondering if any natives of ATL could give me a little insight into if, and how, this is occuring in your city? Is the city-proper noticeably growing? Are there alot of developments? Anything could help me, so feel free to digress.

Thanks a ton!!!

[Scraper Enthusiast]

I think that "sprawl" is slowing down all over the U.S., simply because the housing market is in a tremendous downturn. Things are no longer being built like they were a few years ago. It has little to do with people wanting to move closer to the city, though gas prices have encouraged some to do so.

Atlanta has seen a lot of investment in the city proper, but this has been going on for at least eighteen years, and more pronounced in the past eight years.

[atlantagreg30127]

There was an article recently about how the inner city of Atlanta's population has shown an increase in recent years. I can say that on some other boards online that focus on the outer suburban areas such as Paulding County as an example, people talk a lot about strip centers going under, stores closing, subdivisions with massive amounts of homes unsold, etc.

Atlanta is a sprawled city, and the trend will continue. But some areas are overbuilt and we'll see fallout from that for a time before it stabilizes and slower growth begins again - at least in the outer burbs.

[OhioNative]

In my part of Gwinnett, there are several already prepared areas for new subdivisions that have been on hold for several months, with all the sewer lines placed and even street lights. In addition, every week the Gwinnett Daily Post lists the rezoning requests for each upcoming Commission meeting. There used to be case after case of rezoning requests for new subdivisions, but for the past few months there are hardly any such requests. The Post also lists the number of residential building permits for the past month and year ago, and there has been a dramatic drop in permits ( I don't have the current numbers). So, yes, at least in Gwinnett, there is evidence of some slowing in at least residential building. Now, if we could just stop all the strip shopping centers!!!

[rvbrad]

Originally Posted by schmidt486

I've been doing some research for a paper about a shift from suburbs back to the cities, and I was wondering if any natives of ATL could give me a little insight into if, and how, this is occuring in your city? Is the city-proper noticeably growing? Are there alot of developments? Anything could help me, so feel free to digress.

Thanks a ton!!!

Regretfully, I believe that your case study will have too much misconfigured information in today's real estate market. Considering the rampant slowdown and you being in a period with no noticeable change in any communities aside from some stagnation to persistent falter, the data collected can not be trusted. Studying urban sprawl and its relative effects is difficult and requires years of collected data.

One would think that with energy prices climbing that some individuals would reanalyze their lifestyle choices and either move closer to their place of work or change careers to work closer to home. However, this energy price change is recent and no one can rightfully predict the outcome.

Atlanta has had many decades of ridiculous rates of sprawl - hell, the city is infamous for it. And yes, in recent years some developers have noticed the need for gentrification and potential profit suited to thier labor accordingly. There are plenty of urban transplants to the "new south" that desire the convenience and quirky nature of living IN Atlanta. But, you can rightfully only assume a swing in the present day.

The only suitable statistic that may assist you are the noted changes in population in each market. Note the issued permits for construction and their change. Recapitalize school populations and stated workforces for each market.

But consider, there have been many recent lay-offs by large employers in the region. There have been many houses flipped by individuals. And as well, retirees are moving in droves. You have your work cut out for you.

[masonbarge]

Well, yes and no. It has definitely slowed and even reversed very recently, but it's just a cyclical contraction IMHO. As density increases in the inner region and the gross population grows, the edges of the metro area will almost certainly expand.

Assuming, of course, continued economic health relative to other US cities, which seems likely to me. Economic health = increasing population, and they have to live somewhere.

I cut up a road to Gainesville yesterday -- I was coming home from a trip, south on I-85, and had to go around a major wreck (north to 975 then back south to 85). It was the road that goes by Road Atlanta.

I could not believe the amount of development just waiting to happen. As soon as the transportation infrastructure increases -- perhaps as little as widening 85 to three lanes as far as Athens -- you are going to see a strong tendency to a solid metro area in the triangle formed by Gainesville, Athens, and Atlanta. IMHO.

There are constant proposals for heavy rail service Atlanta -Athens, that would also drive the metro area northeast.

Northwest towards Chattanooga is another strong probability. If I remember my history, the Atlanta-Chattanooga railroad was the first (or, if not the first, at least an early) factor in Atlanta's founding and growth.

However, the I-85 corridor has the benefit of tying into the huge commercial belt in South Carolina. An increase in truck and/or train traffic from Greenville to Atlanta seems inevitable.

Well, at least there's some beautiful land up that way. And Lake Hartwell looks like it has lots of water.

[atl1221]

Atlanta (city proper) has seen a large increase in population in the past few years. As far as sprawl slowing down, it's hard to say. It seems like people are still moving here in droves & the exurbs (especially northern Forsyth county) still have tons of new development.

[gt6974a]

Yeah it's slowed, I'm 5 feet closer when traffic stops in my 30 mile commute everyday

[plessthanpointohfive]

This reminds me of the conversation I had with a neighbor. Sometimes when I talk to my old neighbors in my old Gwinnett neighborhood they refer to where I live as "downtown", though I am 3-4 miles from downtown. My current neighbor said that in 20 years Gainesville will be considered part of downtown and the burbs will be out in South Carolina...

But, perhaps if sprawl is slowing it will be more like 30 years.

[ramblinwreck17]

There's been enough "sprawl" that the housing downturn, insane traffic, gas is helping to fill in the areas closer to downtown and beyond. We are filling in the gaps and...

"Sprawl" has been replaced with "re-development"