Predictions: Georgia turns blue next election? (Atlanta, Columbus: school, wealthy, suburbs)

[netdragon]

I was expecting there weren't enough of us Northerners to diffuse the redness in Georgia. Do you think we'll pull it off next election? E.g. if metro Atlanta grows by another million?

[PeteyNice]

I am thinking 2016. The Georgia exit polls were disappointing. Only like 20% of white people voted for Obama. I don't think we can count on the high black turnout again. By 2016 I think the demographics will shift enough that Georgia will be blue. I am hopeful for 2012 but I think that is too optimistic.

[runningncircles1]

Everyone makes it sound like Georgia won McCain by 60% or something. He barely got 52%, only a few pts higher than Obama.

And, it really depends. If Obama does a good job, it's quite possible that we will be blue. However, if we're dissatisfied (economically) then we'll be red. In Georgia, it seems to be more about economics these days than social policy.

[netdragon]

It's sad. Georgia is lagging behind Virginia, North Carolina and Florida which are now the first blue Southern states. I really believe Georgia has the potential to be next and prove it isn't still in the stone ages.

By the way, I was surprised that there were some other regions of the state that were blue other than Atlanta. I thought Atlanta was the only progressive part of Georgia. I guess I was wrong. In fact: from Augusta to Columbus there was a ring of blue.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/res...unty/#GAP00map

[netdragon]

I guess it may not be as bleak as imagined. Democrats made huge gains in the state: Democrats make gains in Georgia | ajc.com (http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/11/09/georgia_democrats_gains.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_ newstab&imw=Y - broken link)

[GF72]

I don't know why you think GA is a huge red bastion, McCain did win the state but not by a huge amount, and Obama won Fulton and Dekalb counties 70-30 and 80-20 (that includes such wealthy places as Buckhead, Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Roswell, Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Milton.....) and though McCain won Cobb and Gwinnett, Democrats made gains in those counties compared to last time. The only reason Cobb and Gwinnett are red is because they are suburban wonderlands that currently still have a large population of old-school thinking parents (that's two votes) and retirees. If you look at their children it's obvious Gwinnett will very soon be blue and Cobb is probably not that far behind, though I think Cobb will eventually just reach a 50/50 point.

Originally Posted by netdragon

It's sad. Georgia is lagging behind Virginia, North Carolina and Florida which are now the first blue Southern states. I really believe Georgia has the potential to be next and prove it isn't still in the stone ages.

By the way, I was surprised that there were some other regions of the state that were blue other than Atlanta. I thought Atlanta was the only progressive part of Georgia. I guess I was wrong. In fact: from Augusta to Columbus there was a ring of blue.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/res...unty/#GAP00map

I think you have the wrong idea about Georgia. Georgia has never been considered a solidly red state, there are tons of states that have bee red states for decades, not Georgia. Georgia has been a blue state several times; last time was for Clinton. After Florida, of course, Georgia is the southern state that usually goes blue; other than this election, North Carolina and Virginia have been solidly red for decades, far longer than GA.

[lastminutemom]

In 2006, GA was the most solidly red state re-electing one of the highest percentages of republican incumbents in the country (Perdue, Cox, congressmen, etc).

Outside of Utah and maybe Texas, I am thinking that we have been one of the most predictably red states in the last few years.

[GF72]

Last few years sure, but a few years is not a long time. 1980 presidential election, GA was I think one of only 6 blue states in the entire country. Things go back and forth. I don't think rural GA will change much or at all for a long time (blacks vote blue, whites vote red), but the younger generation in metro Atlanta is certainly far more liberal than the older generation, I think the suburbs will slowly be shifting over in the coming elections.

[cislga]

The pendulum never stops in the middle. It swings from left to right.

[GF72]

until the batteries run out