Long-term growth patterns... (Atlanta, Smyrna, Doraville: 2010, hotel, transfer)

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by neil0311

Bob, hasn't that been the trend for many years now in the Atlanta area? Norcross in the 1980s, Alpharetta and the Cumberland Mall area in the 1990s, Buford/Lawrencville in the 2000's?

It's definitely been occuring, but I think you're going to see more of it as time goes on- both in the areas you mentioned and in further-out suburbs. If Atlanta's next mayor and city council can't get their act together and get crime and the city's finances under control, you're going to see more and more people and companies wondering why they're staying in the city if there's not a solid reason to have to have an Atlanta zip code.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

If Atlanta's next mayor and city council can't get their act together and get crime and the city's finances under control, you're going to see more and more people and companies wondering why they're staying in the city if there's not a solid reason to have to have an Atlanta zip code.

I agree, and I think the City of Atlanta is much less important in practice than many people think it is. The name recognition and the gravitas that comes from the City is important, but many comments from posters treat the suburbs as some kind of wasteland that people commute from on their way to the bright shiny urban center where all the important stuff happens.

My point has been that's a myth. More and more what you have are people living and working in the suburbs, which in turn become more and more built up and more and more urbanized.

[noah]

I disagree somewhat with this. What I believe we have seen in recent years is a resurgence in the city as people become empty nesters or just want to be closer to either their jobs or the things they like to do (This is not just an Atlanta thing either) This does not describe everyone but there has been a trend towards this. I personally know many people in the burbs who want to live intown. I think there is a reason why more and more intown areas are more vibrant then ever.

Now, for those that want a rural or suburban lifestyle then the city does not appeal to them and it makes sense that they would not want to live in the city. But with all that is happening intown I would not say it is fair to say it is a myth that the city is the shiny urban center for the region.

Originally Posted by neil0311

I agree, and I think the City of Atlanta is much less important in practice than many people think it is. The name recognition and the gravitas that comes from the City is important, but many comments from posters treat the suburbs as some kind of wasteland that people commute from on their way to the bright shiny urban center where all the important stuff happens.

My point has been that's a myth. More and more what you have are people living and working in the suburbs, which in turn become more and more built up and more and more urbanized.

[anadyr21]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

I see another trend that somewhat counters your thinking. As more and more people move to the burbs, work centers will emerge outside of the perimeter, so people won't have to schlep downtown to go to work. The ARC's Livable Centers Initiative is really starting to push that, and companies are already starting to work in the direction.

A perfect example is NCR- when they decided to move over 1,000 jobs to the Atlanta metro, they selected Duluth, rather than locating in downtown or midtown. Why? Could be because they don't need the "status address" of locating in a high-rise, and the associated higher rent for the space. Unless you're a company that has to be in downtown (high $$ lawyers, designers that work with downtown clients, Fortune 500-type firms), there's really no reason to locate there, and that's the case in many metro areas.

I grew up in central NJ, and there were hundreds of business parks with 3-6 story buildings, all loaded with firms that didn't have the need to pay Manhattan rents, and the areas around the business parks were where the folks who worked in the parks lived. Sure, some people still commuted into NYC, just like people commute to downtown/midtown here, but it's not the only option.

I do agree that growth will slow, and the metro area will see more infill development, even in the areas that are currently less dense. Rather than growing outward from Cherokee County out to Bartow or Pickens County, we'll likely see Cherokee County and the other current "outer ring" areas get developed more.

To add to that, in the burbs, the number of developments quoting the "live, work, and play" line, similar to Atlantic Station are increasing. In Suwanee, there is a development of single family homes and town homes, all in walking distance of The Greenway, parks, restaurants, shops, and entertainment. With places like this increasing in popularity and becoming known as one of the "best towns to live in", it doesn't seem unreasonable for at least smaller companies to start looking that way.

Then you have other counties like Douglas, which appear to offer tax breaks and great incentives to small businesses. These people have to live somewhere.

[grindin]

Chattanooga, Lavonia, Macon and Heflin, AL will all be exurbs.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by noah

I disagree somewhat with this. What I believe we have seen in recent years is a resurgence in the city as people become empty nesters or just want to be closer to either their jobs or the things they like to do (This is not just an Atlanta thing either) This does not describe everyone but there has been a trend towards this. I personally know many people in the burbs who want to live intown. I think there is a reason why more and more intown areas are more vibrant then ever.

Now, for those that want a rural or suburban lifestyle then the city does not appeal to them and it makes sense that they would not want to live in the city. But with all that is happening intown I would not say it is fair to say it is a myth that the city is the shiny urban center for the region.

I'm not doubting that there has been a move to intown areas, especially when you compare to the pre-Olympics days. The housing projects like Techwood Homes are all gone and developments like Atlantic Station have replaced them. My point (and what I think Bob was alluding to also) is that the trend is for more and more business to settle in the suburbs instead of downtown, and based on people saying....live near where you work....more people are living in the suburbs and working there as well. The percentage of people who live in the suburbs and commute downtown is getting smaller and smaller.

[A&M Bulldawg]

Originally Posted by grindin

Chattanooga, Lavonia, Macon and Heflin, AL will all be exurbs.

Don't forget BIRMINGHAM!!!!! I hope one day, Birmingham will beat Atlanta and make Atlanta an exurb!!!!!!!!

[equinox63]

So most of you guys don't think that the beltline, etc will attract more residents intown? Or i guess the beltline will have competition from other Atlantic Station style developments OTP?

Let's say crime remains the same as it is today... At what point will people be fed up and decide to flee the city? And where will all the indigent people go/reside? In 20 years, do you think panhandling and homelessness will still be an issue?

To what current metro area that exists now, could you compare the "20-year-from-now" Atlanta? Chicago? L.A., Perhaps?

[A&M Bulldawg]

I think that Atlanta would be more like Dallas, although they are 1 million people apart. 3+ million people is a lot for Atlanta to get in 11 years to be on the scale with Chicago, especially when some reports say Atlanta's growth will beceome slower and more steady. L.A. is out of the question!

[LovinDecatur]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

I think that Atlanta would be more like Dallas, although they are 1 million people apart. 3+ million people is a lot for Atlanta to get in 11 years to be on the scale with Chicago, especially when some reports say Atlanta's growth will become slower and more steady. L.A. is out of the question!

Actually, I don't think it is.