Long-term growth patterns... (Atlanta, Nashville, Buckhead: credit, moving, homeless)

[grindin]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

Don't forget BIRMINGHAM!!!!! I hope one day, Birmingham will beat Atlanta and make Atlanta an exurb!!!!!!!!

Good Luck with that.

I think that Atlanta would be more like Dallas, although they are 1 million people apart. 3+ million people is a lot for Atlanta to get in 11 years to be on the scale with Chicago, especially when some reports say Atlanta's growth will beceome slower and more steady. L.A. is out of the question!

Atlanta, like Los Angeles has water issues. Due to our elevation, we do not have an aquifer for a groundwater supply, so we have to depend on the Chattahoochee River for our H20. We are one of the largest metropolitan areas in the nation that has such a small water supply, which is being fought over in Alabama and Florida. The Colorado River is shared with multiple states as well, so much that it no longer flows in its Delta in Mexico.

It was predicted that 6 Million would be here by 2010, but with the slowdown in the economy and the housing crisis that came along with it, I think a better estimate would be 5.7 million.

[BringBackCobain]

Atlanta will continue to grow mainly in the direction it has grown since the 1950s: North. People can make the argument that "you can only be so far from the city center", but I think what will shift is what the city center is. In 20 years, Midtown will be Downtown, Buckhead will be Midtown, Perimeter will be Buckhead, Alpahretta will be Perimeter, and Forsyth will be Alpahretta.

In addition to this, I think people will also continue to move into the city. The City of Atlanta is seeing huge growth rates and its population is booming. That will continue. Also, places inside the perimeter or close to it will become very desireable (Doraville, Chamblee, Scottsdale, Smyrna, Peachtree Corners), so they will probably densify to accomodate the growth.

[SouthernBoy205]

Atlanta's glory days are soon coming to an end! I don't see how you guys don't see that! I think that y'all are scared to see that. OMG, it's going to continue to grow, but getting 100,000+ every year is going to come to an end soon!

[johnatl]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

Atlanta's glory days are soon coming to an end! I don't see how you guys don't see that! I think that y'all are scared to see that. OMG, it's going to continue to grow, but getting 100,000+ every year is going to come to an end soon!

Hardly. Sounds like more wishful thinking to me.

No place can sustain gaining 100,000+ residents annually long term, and we are no longer gaining people at that blistering rate (thank God). We are now in the neighborhood of 24,000 or so these past 12 months, according to the ARC.

Frankly, we need some breathing room - and we have it now. If you think a place that has constantly been reinventing itself over the past 5 decades is going to just roll over and die, you are in for a rude awakening. Likewise, the Federal Government has no intentions of "turning off the spigot" to the 9th largest Metro in the country.

Do not underestimate the ability of this place to come to grips with what needs to happen to propel us to the next level. Those that do have been proven wrong time after time, over many years.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by johnatl

No place can sustain gaining 100,000+ residents annually long term, and we are no longer gaining people at that blistering rate (thank God). We are now in the neighborhood of 24,000 or so these past 12 months, according to the ARC.

Frankly, we need some breathing room - and we have it now. If you think a place that has constantly been reinventing itself over the past 5 decades is going to just roll over and die, you are in for a rude awakening. Likewise, the Federal Government has no intentions of "turning off the spigot" to the 9th largest Metro in the country.

Do not underestimate the ability of this place to come to grips with what needs to happen to propel us to the next level. Those that do have been proven wrong time after time, over many years.

I agree, and you really have to look at what has made Atlanta in the last 30 years. People in Atlanta are here for more than just an accident of birth, as is the case in many other cities. Many people have chosen to live here, either due to business or personal reasons, so you have a lot of people invested in success and a lot of corporate citizens who have been affected by the current downturn but who aren't going anywhere.

[johnatl]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I agree, and you really have to look at what has made Atlanta in the last 30 years. People in Atlanta are here for more than just an accident of birth, as is the case in many other cities. Many people have chosen to live here, either due to business or personal reasons, so you have a lot of people invested in success and a lot of corporate citizens who have been affected by the current downturn but who aren't going anywhere.

Great post, Neil! Thanks.

It is a well known local occurance for years now that a certain segment of the population refuses to be transferred out of Atlanta. I have known quite a few people that have quit their jobs rather than leave, as do many of us I'm sure.

[diva05]

Hmm. I partially agree with the other posts, but I think some are missing one key element. The city grows as the powerful people in the city - developers (*cough Cousin), business, and city officials - choose it to. Yes, the mass population has great influence in where the population gets distributed in this city, but so do those folks I mentioned.

If you look at it from this vantage point, there is a considerable effort to attract persons closer to the city. Look at the examples - Atlantic Station, Grant Park/SE Atlanta, Virginia Highlands, Camp Creek, Ivan Allen, Midtown West- all places that at some point in the last 30 years it was hard pressed to get people to drive through much less live. Through a combiniation of very motivated neighbors (in cases like Grant Park and VA Highlands) and dollar signs in their eyes buisiness leaders (in cases like Atlantic Station and Camp Creek) these areas boomed. I've been in Atlanta a long enough time to remember what each of these places looked like. Without the fancy shopping areas and new development, no one was trying to live there. Put in a starbucks and target, or in cases of downtown development a nice hotel and trendy restaurants, and wala it is the it place to be.

So, I agree more with the sentiments of the original post. Atlanta development is more of a mystery. yes, the northern suburbs will continue to grow, but as the money and people who run atlanta decide where they want to concentrate their energy, don't be surprised when you see boom happening in places (particularly intown) that you never thought would exist. Being that I live in an intown neighborhood and am an educator I frequent many events where some of these same persons speak about Atlanta's future. At least for right now, the push is to have more wealthy individuals move back into the city and the powerful agencies in Atlanta are definately working together to make that happen. From the housing side - housing projects are being close. From the education side (which everyone knows greatly influence population growth) with the displacement of poor people schools in the poorer neighborhoods are closing while new schools in the more wealthy areas of Atlanta (i.e. Springdale Elementary a newly opened gorgeous school) are opening. From the development side - there are now HUGE swaths of cheap land available from closing housing projects. Put those all together, and here come the people.

[RainyRainyDay]

Originally Posted by diva05

Put in a starbucks and target, or in cases of downtown development a nice hotel and trendy restaurants, and wala it is the it place to be.

Just a brief interruption here from the spelling police. I believe you mean voilà. It's French. OK, back to the thread now.

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by johnatl

No place can sustain gaining 100,000+ residents annually long term, and we are no longer gaining people at that blistering rate (thank God). We are now in the neighborhood of 24,000 or so these past 12 months, according to the ARC.

I agree that 100,000+ people every year for the last 20 years was more than enough for a while. People have definitely slowed down moving here (along with every else), but I think the ARC is severely undercounting...as usual. I thinks its more probable that Census bureau had it right and around 70k moved here in the last year. We'll see next year though when the official census is done.

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by grindin

Atlanta, like Los Angeles has water issues. Due to our elevation, we do not have an aquifer for a groundwater supply, so we have to depend on the Chattahoochee River for our H20. We are one of the largest metropolitan areas in the nation that has such a small water supply, which is being fought over in Alabama and Florida. The Colorado River is shared with multiple states as well, so much that it no longer flows in its Delta in Mexico.

Atlanta is not anything like Los Angeles when it comes to water. L.A. is in a desert. We are not. Atlanta won't run out of water anytime soon.