U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Merry Christmas!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Texas > Austin
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 1.5 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Jump to a detailed profile or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Business Search - 14 Million verified businesses
Search for:  near: 
 
 
Old 07-17-2010, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Southwest Austin
5,019 posts, read 9,947,478 times
Reputation: 3507

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by misterbubble View Post
Folks, I'm out there looking to buy at 200 plus psft. That market is devastated whether you are talking downtown, Spanish Oaks, Barton Creek or Tarrytown. A good friend just closed on a home in Tarrytown at 2/3 the 2009 county tax value.
The County Tax value is a meaningless, worthless number. If you're using that as your control data, you better look for a more reliable basis.

Quote:
My offers are on short sales and forclosures (of which there are many and more in the pipeline) and the prices are generally 65% of the 2008 values. Maybe.
I don't believe you. I know many, many investors. Foreclosures are not bargains. Shorsales take forever and the banks are being ridiculously stupid in the pricing they are willing to accept, often demanding OVER market value, which of course causes the home to not sell.

Quote:
I'm also talking to lots of realtors who are all nervous (I don't know why they're not excited for buyers). When you take into account the shadow inventory (REO, Short Sale, and non performing loans) there is well over 12 month's supply. This does not bode well for sellers.
"Nervous" agents are nervous because they have weak business models and are broke. They can't withstand funky and/or slow markets. If you want to get accurate data, talk to agents who are not nervous and who are super busy. There are a lot of those agents out there.

Quote:
I'm from Southern California. I saw this 2 years ago in San Diego. Reality is just setting in for ya'll here in Austin. Your prices will reset at about a 2004 price.
What is the "this" you saw? You data seems to come from tax records and "nervous" agents. Might as well tell us how bad the dating market is because you've talked to lots of dudes who haven't been on a date in 2 years, and they're pessimistic about the dating market.

What other stats do you have?

Here is some data for you:

Below is a 10+ year sales graph of home sales in the Austin market. What does it tell you? Compare it to the shape of the bubble graphs of San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. While other markets were having their bubbles from 2003-2006, Austin was mellow. We have a blip in 2007 as the bubble investor fled the other areas as they were topping out and came to Austin and drove up prices a bit.



I may be wrong, but I think we're in the 7th or 8th inning of Austin's real estate slowdown. Once we get past the November elections and some of the uncertainty is removed from the picture with regard to tax laws, health care rules, cap gains taxes, etc, maybe people and businesses will stop hording money and start investing and hiring again.

Steve
Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-17-2010, 05:23 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 59,708 times
Reputation: 21
Median list price for Rollingwood... -42% YOY

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/TX-...value/r_40626/
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 05:37 PM
 
650 posts, read 1,192,318 times
Reputation: 173
Steve- Thanks for the data. Do you have stats going back to the early 90s? Just looking at that it seems we have just a little correcting to do if you are a mean reversion purist. Adding earlier years may change that.


Bubble- I believe that about Rollingwood. Tons of empty lots too. Back when I had more money, I coveted a lot there. Still for sale....2 years later.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
6,879 posts, read 10,909,697 times
Reputation: 2981
Zillow is completely worthless, worse than the tax records (which is the data it's based on).

Rollingwood down 42.3 percent while adjacent West Lake Hills is up 1.9? They are in the same zip, same MLS section. You could toss a rock from a house in Rollingwood and hit a house of the exact same age, condition, and style in West Lake Hills. I'm not saying that either Rollingwood or Westlake in general are doing good, just saying Zillow is a REALLY poor source for housing price projections.

Other Zillow Gems:

Barton Creek - up 15% YoY - http://www.zillow.com/local-info/TX-...alue/r_231200/
Bee Cave - up 20% YoY - http://www.zillow.com/local-info/TX-...value/r_16948/
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 06:35 PM
 
Location: Southwest Austin
5,019 posts, read 9,947,478 times
Reputation: 3507
Quote:
Steve- Thanks for the data. Do you have stats going back to the early 90s?
No, MLS archive doesn't go back that far.
Steve
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 06:58 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 59,708 times
Reputation: 21
Attention realtors: when every answer is "You need a realtor, you can't trust Zillow" that sounds self serving to us, your potential clients. We see right through it. The world of real estate is changing and buyers and sellers are empowered with more information than in the past. Adapt or perish. Be helpful and honest.

Demonstrate your knowledge yes, but don't decry Zillow. It's amazing to us to finally have the MLS data you have lorded over forever.

Stock brokers became advisors with the rise of the internet and discount brokers such as TDAmeritrade. More information for investors actually increased the need for financial advice because people need help understanding it. But, the nature of the advice changed for brokers and it will for you.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 07:09 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
6,879 posts, read 10,909,697 times
Reputation: 2981
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterbubble View Post
Attention realtors: when every answer is "You need a realtor, you can't trust Zillow" that sounds self serving to us, your potential clients. We see right through it. The world of real estate is changing and buyers and sellers are empowered with more information than in the past. Adapt or perish. Be helpful and honest.

Demonstrate your knowledge yes, but don't decry Zillow. It's amazing to us to finally have the MLS data you have lorded over forever.
I'm not a realtor. But I do know Zillow is useless. Do you think the Bee Cave market is up 20% this year?
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-17-2010, 07:13 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 59,708 times
Reputation: 21
Zillow is less useful here in Austin because the realtors will not release MLS data to them. They have to use the tax roles and list prices to gauge value. (In CA all MLS sales data is immediately released to the public so markets are much more transparent. Zillow is dead on there.)

That being said, I think Zillow is at least as accurate as the average realtor and it is certainly less biased.
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-18-2010, 07:16 AM
 
1,150 posts, read 1,530,437 times
Reputation: 621
I think the exceptionally difficult market in Manor and Hutto (1 out of 58 homes in foreclosure) does in some degree signal things are worsening. Some badly designed neighborhoods with a bad location are having a really hard time in the Austin metro area.
Comparing the California market to the Austin market just doesnt work IMO. Its more a question of comparing Austin to the Houston market of the 80's. There was little price appreciation in Houston during their boom but the market overall heavily stagnated anyway because of bad developments and too much volume.

Hutto and Manor real estate is trending like Houston real estate of the 80's. Its just a question now if that contagion stays localized or if it starts to hurt the rest of Austin real estate.

Generally what a lot of people are saying is true that good houses in good locations will always sell, the only question is at what price?

Last edited by orbius; 07-18-2010 at 07:38 AM..
Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-18-2010, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 4,211,033 times
Reputation: 1399
Government workers are paid by the taxpayer, so not really a loss..

And you forgot 2 things:
-7.4% is a really good rate nationally
-Employment grows in Austin, but so many people come from other states to Austin...The unemployment rate grow too, too many transplants that's all, because the economy is fine in Austin
Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


 
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2011 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $89,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Texas > Austin

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2014, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Top