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Old 07-19-2010, 12:23 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 57,800 times
Reputation: 21

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Quote:
Originally Posted by austin-steve View Post
Yes, anecdotal cherry picked examples can be found I'm sure. But why not start a business leveraging the incredibly more accurate and valuable information you find in Zillow and TCAD and take your theory to market and show us all how it works, how algorithms produce better values and data than actual buyers who are deciding which home is the best value for them after going inside a bunch of different homes.

As to why TCAD doesn't have much public data, call TCAD and ask what the response rate is for the surveys they mail out to THE CONSUMERS after every home sells. An extremely low number of the surveys are returned, telling me that the public itself (the actual buyers and sellers of homes) don't want their sales price broadcast to the world. This is one of those cases where everyone wants to be nosey and find out what the neighbor's home sold for, but they don't want to say what they paid for their own home after buying it. otherwise the response rate would by 90%+.

Steve
That experiment has been conducted in the rest of the country where Zillow has sales price data in real time. It's incredibly accurate in CA where I've lived for 20 years. Not perfect, but pretty darned accurate. As you can see from my example, realtors are just as flawed. (and they cost a lot more)

Texans want to tell TCAD their property is worth nothing (to save taxes) at the same time tell buyers it's worth lots. I trust the TCAD values more than anything because it is at least representing the tug of war between the Govt and the landowner about the value.
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Old 07-19-2010, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Southwest Austin
4,969 posts, read 9,786,109 times
Reputation: 3434
Quote:
I trust the TCAD values more than anything because it is at least representing the tug of war between the Govt and the landowner about the value.
OK, well that, more than anything else you've said, illustrates your lack of understanding about how values are set at TCAD.

Anyway, you've made your points - Realtors suck, Zillow is great - trust Zillow and TCAD for value info, stay away from Realtors. That's your message and those who agree with you are free to follow your advice. Just stop trying to convince the rest of us that, as a resident of California, you know anything at all about real estate values in Austin Texas just because you are a consumer of Zillow and TCAD data.

Take Care,

Steve
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Old 07-19-2010, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
8,732 posts, read 17,985,136 times
Reputation: 3547
Quote:
I trust the TCAD values more than anything because it is at least representing the tug of war between the Govt and the landowner about the value.
You assume it is a fair tug-of-war .

TCAD doesn't really want real data, their tax base would go way down. They are able to over-appraise houses to some extent because people don't fight it/don't care, or are tired of losing the battle to have it changed. In most cases, TCAD will 'meet you in the middle' easily, but 'threaten' that the path to get it lowered further will be time consuming and possibly a losing battle.
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Old 07-19-2010, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
8,732 posts, read 17,985,136 times
Reputation: 3547
Oh, the realtor conspiracy thing - I don't know many people that don't have a part-time realtor friend that happily looks up MLS sales data for them if they are looking for a house and doesn't charge them a penny. Most realtors I know (part-time and serious job) are much happier having houses move than having them overpriced or languishing on the market. The two that I know the best and talk to on a weekly (if not daily) basis are having their busiest years ever (or at least start to the year). I can't really tell you exactly what that means, being a single piece of info, but the market is not dead right now for them.
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Old 07-19-2010, 01:08 PM
 
139 posts, read 227,681 times
Reputation: 80
Maybe they should have called the government housing rebate Cash for Clunkers as well. Nahhhh!
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Old 07-19-2010, 03:16 PM
 
Location: 78747
3,202 posts, read 2,606,808 times
Reputation: 915
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingugly View Post
Maybe they should have called the government housing rebate Cash for Clunkers as well. Nahhhh!

That would involve trading up while destroying some of the obsolescent housing stock in central Austin in the process.
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Old 07-19-2010, 03:19 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 57,800 times
Reputation: 21
Mr. Bubble lives here in Austin now BTW...
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Old 07-19-2010, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Issaquah & Snoqualmie, WA (Greater Seattle)
136 posts, read 168,222 times
Reputation: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by austin-steve View Post
OK, well that, more than anything else you've said, illustrates your lack of understanding about how values are set at TCAD.

Anyway, you've made your points - Realtors suck, Zillow is great - trust Zillow and TCAD for value info, stay away from Realtors. That's your message and those who agree with you are free to follow your advice. Just stop trying to convince the rest of us that, as a resident of California, you know anything at all about real estate values in Austin Texas just because you are a consumer of Zillow and TCAD data.

Take Care,

Steve
Yes... the users "Mr. Bubble" and "MisterBubble" have done a great job of making it sound like Austin is literally tanking - despite all the real data otherwise. (Not to mention the Press.) The blog he/she has written is full of these cherry-picked examples, and if I were an ill-informed homeowner, I'd be weak at the knees reading it. Fortunately, I am not misinformed, and neither are most participants here.

I have two more cherry-picked examples. In Bee Cave, I bought my own new construction custom home in mid-2007 for the low 700's. I've recently sold the home in less than two weeks for 95% of asking. And, that asking price was only 1.3% off what I paid in 2007. Of course, that's not taking in to consideration the considerable expense of landscaping in 2007 - but that's to be expected.

As another example, a production home in the same subdivision listed recently for $799, and sold for cash at $790 in only one week!

The fact is, if you have a great home, in a great location, in great condition, and price it fairly, it will sell in a reasonable amount of time. With that said - of course there is more pressure on the 1mil +. But... there have been increasing deals there as well - some for cash.

So.... if you're going to cherry-pick, be sure to choose BOTH sides of the argument - there are just as many examples which indicate Austin and the surrounding area will be just fine. And, if you're shopping upper-end foreclosures in the Bee Cave/Lakeway area, your missing the boat, IMHO. There is already quite a bit of activity related to the hospital - and the BIG DADDY crane is going up as I type this.
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Old 07-19-2010, 04:11 PM
 
Location: West Lake
46 posts, read 57,800 times
Reputation: 21
Default Data

Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyG5003 View Post
Yes... the users "Mr. Bubble" and "MisterBubble" have done a great job of making it sound like Austin is literally tanking - despite all the real data otherwise. (Not to mention the Press.) The blog he/she has written is full of these cherry-picked examples, and if I were an ill-informed homeowner, I'd be weak at the knees reading it. Fortunately, I am not misinformed, and neither are most participants here.

I have two more cherry-picked examples. In Bee Cave, I bought my own new construction custom home in mid-2007 for the low 700's. I've recently sold the home in less than two weeks for 95% of asking. And, that asking price was only 1.3% off what I paid in 2007. Of course, that's not taking in to consideration the considerable expense of landscaping in 2007 - but that's to be expected.

As another example, a production home in the same subdivision listed recently for $799, and sold for cash at $790 in only one week!

The fact is, if you have a great home, in a great location, in great condition, and price it fairly, it will sell in a reasonable amount of time. With that said - of course there is more pressure on the 1mil +. But... there have been increasing deals there as well - some for cash.

So.... if you're going to cherry-pick, be sure to choose BOTH sides of the argument - there are just as many examples which indicate Austin and the surrounding area will be just fine. And, if you're shopping upper-end foreclosures in the Bee Cave/Lakeway area, your missing the boat, IMHO. There is already quite a bit of activity related to the hospital - and the BIG DADDY crane is going up as I type this.
Mr. Bubble has plenty of data at austinbubble.blogspot.com Let the readers decide for themselves. Those long Austin real estate don't need any more help distorting information to protect high prices. Everyone here does it. It was the same in San Diego in 2007. Eventually, the truth will emerge.
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Old 07-19-2010, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Central Texas
16,418 posts, read 22,686,393 times
Reputation: 12627
Quote:
Originally Posted by austin-steve View Post
Yes, anecdotal cherry picked examples can be found I'm sure. But why not start a business leveraging the incredibly more accurate and valuable information you find in Zillow and TCAD and take your theory to market and show us all how it works, how algorithms produce better values and data than actual buyers who are deciding which home is the best value for them after going inside a bunch of different homes.

As to why TCAD doesn't have much public data, call TCAD and ask what the response rate is for the surveys they mail out to THE CONSUMERS after every home sells. An extremely low number of the surveys are returned, telling me that the public itself (the actual buyers and sellers of homes) don't want their sales price broadcast to the world. This is one of those cases where everyone wants to be nosey and find out what the neighbor's home sold for, but they don't want to say what they paid for their own home after buying it. otherwise the response rate would by 90%+.

Steve
Steve, I tried to give you reps for this but have to spread it around a bit first. (Why does that sound so dirty?)

Anyway, you're absolutely right, and there are a lot of people with a sense of entitlement - they are OWED the personal information of other people, just because they want it. Sorry, that's not how it works here and we don't collymoddle that kind of thinking.
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