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A little background on Mr. Bubble... Mr. Bubble is an offspring of Moderator cut: advertising is against TOS a San Diego blog that, had I begun reading in 2005 when the author began sounding the alarm about real estate prices, would have saved me a lot of $$$. Mr. Bubble sees the same trends here in Austin over $200 a sq ft and is trying to save buyers from making a big mistake.
The point is that Mr. Bubble is very bearish about expensive real estate in Austin. He has a point of view to offer and it's not totally unreasonable. Mr. Bubble is a public service only. If you don't agree with Mr. Bubble, act accordingly.
Last edited by RaleighLass; 07-19-2010 at 06:21 PM..
Reason: Linked to competing site, against TOS, remaining link is builder specific
Wonder why these realtors are so threatened by another point of view?
Well, there's this pesky little thing called the City-Data TOS (Terms of Service, in case you've never read one - most forums have them these days). You might try reading it - it's at the very very top of the Austin forum for easy access.
Well, there's this pesky little thing called the City-Data TOS (Terms of Service, in case you've never read one - most forums have them these days). You might try reading it - it's at the very very top of the Austin forum for easy access.
That didn't answer the question? Is Mr. Bubble violating the TOS? He's not a realtor. Moderator cut: if Mr Bubble were the Queen of England, or the King of all the Realtors of the world, I'd do the same to her or him (sorry your majesty!), if anyone violates the TOS, you get edited or deleted.
Last edited by RaleighLass; 07-19-2010 at 06:26 PM..
Reason: TOS reminder!!
Well, predicting an Austin real estate crash has been happening on these very forums for 3 years at least. Just run a search, you'll see.
So at the best, Mr. Bubble is very late to the doom-predicting game here. At the worst, just like all the other predictions over the last 3 years about this market... they just end up fizzling out as the "truth" comes out, and prices here remain generally flat. No big drop, no big increase.
Maybe it's the property tax after all. People couldn't get $1M loans for homes in Texas, unless they qualified for the equivalent of $1.5M (factoring in the $30K per year on the payment in addition to P&I because of property taxes). So speculation, the real culprit in most "bubble" markets, was kept at bay. Some people obviously got underwater on their homes here, but there is a reason it's so much fewer than in other markets... and I don't think there is any evidence to indicate it's a cyclical or "delayed" response to the bad economy. It's just that there is a lot less bubble here.
But hey, mark this thread and let's look at it again in a year. At the same time, do a search for "bust" or "housing market" on this very forum to witness all the folks who predicted doom and gloom by 2009 in the Austin market
Well, predicting an Austin real estate crash has been happening on these very forums for 3 years at least. Just run a search, you'll see.
So at the best, Mr. Bubble is very late to the doom-predicting game here. At the worst, just like all the other predictions over the last 3 years about this market... they just end up fizzling out as the "truth" comes out, and prices here remain generally flat. No big drop, no big increase.
Maybe it's the property tax after all. People couldn't get $1M loans for homes in Texas, unless they qualified for the equivalent of $1.5M (factoring in the $30K per year on the payment in addition to P&I because of property taxes). So speculation, the real culprit in most "bubble" markets, was kept at bay. Some people obviously got underwater on their homes here, but there is a reason it's so much fewer than in other markets... and I don't think there is any evidence to indicate it's a cyclical or "delayed" response to the bad economy. It's just that there is a lot less bubble here.
But hey, mark this thread and let's look at it again in a year. At the same time, do a search for "bust" or "housing market" on this very forum to witness all the folks who predicted doom and gloom by 2009 in the Austin market
Indeed. Time will tell. Remember, I'm only talking about the expensive stuff. 500k plus.
Indeed. Time will tell. Remember, I'm only talking about the expensive stuff. 500k plus.
That statement right there says quite a lot. $500K plus is the "expensive stuff" in Austin. What is it in San Diego? What is the definition of bubble again?
Location: Issaquah & Snoqualmie, WA (Greater Seattle)
136 posts, read 328,644 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misterbubble
Mr. Bubble is very bearish about expensive real estate in Austin. He has a point of view to offer and it's not totally unreasonable. Mr. Bubble is a public service only. If you don't agree with Mr. Bubble, act accordingly.
I'm not an agent - yet.
Totally agreed... everyone has a right to their "opinion." Unfortunately, Mr. Bubble's opinions are based on incomplete, incorrect, or otherwise misleading information - and moreover, comparisons of economic micro-climates, and general environments which are not remotely the same.
The California market cannot be compared to Austin, or anywhere else in Texas, no matter how much parts of it may look like California, or how many Californians move here - my home's buyers included. Texas did not have the ridiculous rise in home prices fueled by a clearly combustible combination of uneducated buyers, bizarre and irresponsible lending practices, enormous home equity loans made to anyone with a roof and a pulse, and general speculation - basically the real estate version of "musical chairs."
In order for something to "crash," there must be an unsubstantiated and unsupported increase - that has not happened anywhere in Texas. Most Texans I know don't buy their personal home as an "investment" - they buy it as a place to live, and feel fortunate if the home increases in value anything greater than 5-6% a YEAR. Indeed, the homes in my subdivision on average, have only increased 5% per year since 2003, and that is due to continued development. This is certainly not something that will come crashing down. In comparison, there were homes in some parts of California that were increasing 5% per month, or even per WEEK at times! That's just nuts. People were willing to accept those risks, and got burned.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with reaping the potential investment rewards from the numerous distressed homeowners possibly going into foreclosure - but those situations are certainly not exclusive to Austin.
I mean... seriously - take a drive through Falconhead West at all the sold signs. And how 'bout new sections of Rough Hollow? When it comes to confidence in the Austin market in general, Mr. Bubble is highly outnumbered. With that said, I would not advise rushing to get a permit to build a 1 mil+ spec home right now - though it's happening in places.
In closing.. (and my last reply - yes folks, I'm aware I'm wasting my time), I'm not sure what Mr. Bubble's "purpose" is, but IMHO, other than waiting to find that one investment gem for Mr. Bubble's own personal residence, barring some sort of world catastrophe, Mr. Bubble is likely wasting his time pining for anything "devastating" to happen in Austin or Texas.
Totally agreed... everyone has a right to their "opinion." Unfortunately, Mr. Bubble's opinions are based on incomplete, incorrect, or otherwise misleading information - and moreover, comparisons of economic micro-climates, and general environments which are not remotely the same.
The California market cannot be compared to Austin, or anywhere else in Texas, no matter how much parts of it may look like California, or how many Californians move here - my home's buyers included. Texas did not have the ridiculous rise in home prices fueled by a clearly combustible combination of uneducated buyers, bizarre and irresponsible lending practices, enormous home equity loans made to anyone with a roof and a pulse, and general speculation - basically the real estate version of "musical chairs."
In order for something to "crash," there must be an unsubstantiated and unsupported increase - that has not happened anywhere in Texas. Most Texans I know don't buy their personal home as an "investment" - they buy it as a place to live, and feel fortunate if the home increases in value anything greater than 5-6% a YEAR. Indeed, the homes in my subdivision on average, have only increased 5% per year since 2003, and that is due to continued development. This is certainly not something that will come crashing down. In comparison, there were homes in some parts of California that were increasing 5% per month, or even per WEEK at times! That's just nuts. People were willing to accept those risks, and got burned.
Of course, there's nothing wrong with reaping the potential investment rewards from the numerous distressed homeowners possibly going into foreclosure - but those situations are certainly not exclusive to Austin.
I mean... seriously - take a drive through Falconhead West at all the sold signs. And how 'bout new sections of Rough Hollow? When it comes to confidence in the Austin market in general, Mr. Bubble is highly outnumbered. With that said, I would not advise rushing to get a permit to build a 1 mil+ spec home right now - though it's happening in places.
In closing.. (and my last reply - yes folks, I'm aware I'm wasting my time), I'm not sure what Mr. Bubble's "purpose" is, but IMHO, other than waiting to find that one investment gem for Mr. Bubble's own personal residence, barring some sort of world catastrophe, Mr. Bubble is likely wasting his time pining for anything "devastating" to happen in Austin or Texas.
I dont want to be the bearer of bad news but you might want to read this:
Quote:
Ask housing experts about local busts and one of the first places they'll mention is Houston, TX. When the oil market was kicked in the teeth back in the mid-1980s, home prices in this city tumbled fast. In just three years, from 1985 to 1988, the typical home price dropped by 21 percent -- or from $78,600 to $61,800.
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"Prices fell so much that people owed more on than their mortgages than their homes were worth," said David Weil, an economics professor at Brown University. " They'd drive to the bank and drop off their keys to their homes and just leave."
Houston had one of the lowest housing costs in the country at the time but still managed to drop by 21%. Banks, developers, and homeowners who want out will sell their real estate if it doesnt sell at a given price they will drop that price.
Certain areas of Austin metro right now are in full bust mode in my opinion but the lack of hard data on what exactly homes are selling for in Texas is keeping the lid on the carnage.
People from out of state need to know that Texas law keeps price trend data out of the public's and media's hands. Therefore the foreclosure data for specific regions becomes doubly valuable it is the only data that allows you to divine potential price trends for areas of Austin.
I honestly think the realtors arent trying to hurt people but in my opinion some regions of the Austin metro are dangerously close to 'bust' status. Nobody wants to move into a house and suddenly have a 25% drop in value. People would accuse someone who sees a bust around the corner in the foreclosure numbers of causing a bust but thats nonsense.
You think if an area does bust that realtors will spend more than an hour worrying about all the people they sold on that busted region? You think the developers care about anything but unloading their stuff at a good price?
All we have are the small amount of facts we have access to like I posted in this thread and our opinions colored by those facts. This is serious business and people's lives can be put in turmoil if they end up underwater.
Wonder why these realtors are so threatened by another point of view?
I think the regulars here know that the Austin City-Data Forum is a place where differing views are exchanged freely. It's also a place where BS gets called on people who make unconvincing arguments, or try to sell personal opinion as fact, or who seem to do nothing but dispense negative viewpoints because they've adopted an apparent mission to do so.
Certain areas of Austin metro right now are in full bust mode in my opinion but the lack of hard data on what exactly homes are selling for in Texas is keeping the lid on the carnage.
People from out of state need to know that Texas law keeps price trend data out of the public's and media's hands. Therefore the foreclosure data for specific regions becomes doubly valuable it is the only data that allows you to divine potential price trends for areas of Austin.
.
Austin of course has been impacted just like the rest of the country although not as bad. However just as the rest of the country has stabilized, so has austin. We did bust and some areas of austin dropped in price by 10-20% already. It is highly unlikely that austin will drop another 10-20%. The economy is recovering and should start growing against late this year or mid next year.
If you look back at my historical posts you can see that I reported this trend in early 2007 (from some economists that I get reports from) and they have been quite accurate.
Q1 GDP growth was 2.7% YOY. Q2 GDP growth will most likely be in line with that.
With regards to the law about prices, the only thing texas law says is that the property tax entities are not able to require people to report actual sales prices to the district. The data exists in MLS and real estate agents have access to sold prices in a majority of cases.
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