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Old 01-28-2011, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
16,787 posts, read 49,058,726 times
Reputation: 9478

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I've been waiting for this annual forecast from Economists Angelos Angelou and Greg Ip. It took place yesterday. You might find it interesting.

Quote:
AngelouEconomics expects 2011 to be a rebuilding year for the region. By 2012, we expect employment to be
at 810,200 jobs in the Austin metro area, the highest level in its history. Unemployment should drop to 5.8%,
the lowest rate since 2008. The population will grow to 1.91 million, likely making it one of the largest 30
metropolitan areas in the United States.
Newcomers pivotal to Austin economy, expert says (http://impactnews.com/lake-travis-westlake/453-recent-news/11406-newcomers-pivotal-to-austin-economy-expert-says - broken link)

Forecasters see Austin economy picking up speed, jobs

You can download their presentation documents with the links below:

Quote:
http://www.angeloueconomics.com/documents/AE_2011-12_Economic%20Forecast_HR.pdf (broken link)
Angelou Economics - News [Presentations]

Page 15 in the second document talks about the Residential real estate market.

Quote:
One would expect that a cool housing market in an area experiencing population growth would face a
tighter rental market, and this is indeed occurring in Austin. Decreased housing demand has begun to
heat up the multi-family housing market. In 2010, average rents grew to nearly $1.00 per square foot
on average, a near historic high. Occupancy rates steadily improved through the year to currently stand
at 93.4%. With only 1,500 units under construction and a limited supply of units being planned, it is
likely prices will be sustained at high levels.
This one is more on national trends but shows Texas in several comparisons. http://www.angeloueconomics.com/documents/2011_Forecast_Presentation_Greg_Ip.pdf (broken link)

Greg Ip, is "The Economist" editor, and former Wall Street Journal reporter

Angelos Angelou, is the principal at Angelou Economics Angelou Economics - Technology-based Economic Development Consulting

Austin Metro trends of interest to me:

---------area----------------2010....2011...2012
Construction job growth..-1400.....600...1500
Unemployment Rate.........7.1%...6.9%...5.8%
Population, new persons..55,000...60,000...65,000
New Jobs.........................8,200...18,800...25,1 00
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Old 01-28-2011, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
228 posts, read 537,366 times
Reputation: 147
Not surprised by the growth projections, especially in population. The Austin MSA added 65,000+ over a few years during the last decade, but averaged closer to 50,000 people per year. I would expect average growth to be higher for 2010-20.
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Old 01-28-2011, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Broomfield, CO
1,445 posts, read 3,267,649 times
Reputation: 913
Ok, lets assume that is true. Have we forgotten that the city of Austin has no transportation improvements planned for these additional 300,000 residents over the next couple of years?? It's cost of living will continue to be out of most people's range forcing more and more people into the suburbs making an already horrendous infastructure situation even worse. Hmmm, wait, the media left that part out as well. But let's keep coming to Austin because it's a perfect world here and we are WEIRD!!


Quote:
Originally Posted by CptnRn View Post
I've been waiting for this annual forecast from Economists Angelos Angelou and Greg Ip. It took place yesterday. You might find it interesting.



Newcomers pivotal to Austin economy, expert says (http://impactnews.com/lake-travis-westlake/453-recent-news/11406-newcomers-pivotal-to-austin-economy-expert-says - broken link)

Forecasters see Austin economy picking up speed, jobs

You can download their presentation documents with the links below:



This one is more on national trends but shows Texas in several comparisons. http://www.angeloueconomics.com/documents/2011_Forecast_Presentation_Greg_Ip.pdf (broken link)

Greg Ip, is "The Economist" editor, and former Wall Street Journal reporter

Angelos Angelou, is the principal at Angelou Economics Angelou Economics - Technology-based Economic Development Consulting

Austin Metro trends of interest to me:

---------area----------------2010....2011...2012
Construction job growth..-1400.....600...1500
Unemployment Rate.........7.1%...6.9%...5.8%
Population, new persons..55,000...60,000...65,000
New Jobs.........................8,200...18,800...25,1 00
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Old 01-28-2011, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
16,787 posts, read 49,058,726 times
Reputation: 9478
You can listen to a recording of the complete presentation here: Listen to Full 2011 Economic Forecast From Angelos Angelou | KUT News for Austin, Texas
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Old 01-28-2011, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
16,787 posts, read 49,058,726 times
Reputation: 9478
Quote:
Originally Posted by eepstein View Post
Ok, lets assume that is true. Have we forgotten that the city of Austin has no transportation improvements planned for these additional 300,000 residents over the next couple of years?? It's cost of living will continue to be out of most people's range forcing more and more people into the suburbs making an already horrendous infastructure situation even worse. Hmmm, wait, the media left that part out as well. But let's keep coming to Austin because it's a perfect world here and we are WEIRD!!
Years ago when I graduated from college my wife and I agreed that if we ever found a nicer place to live then Austin, where we could get good jobs, we would move. 33 years later we are still here. And as numerous other posters on the traffic threads have said, the traffic really isn't all that bad most of the time.

Fortunately, most of the new companies who are moving to Austin are locating their work places away from the City center, which will result in many of the new jobs being closer to homes so commutes will be less of an issue. Personally, if rush hour commuting to other parts of Austin is a concern for you, I can't imagine a worst place to live then Avery Ranch. For someone who claims to know so much about transportation I can't imagine why you choose Avery Ranch.
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Old 01-28-2011, 08:51 PM
 
Location: Round Rock, Texas
13,448 posts, read 15,475,235 times
Reputation: 18992
I got this in my email the other day from Angelou Economics. Problem that I have with these forecasts, esp. when it comes to unemployment rate and jobs is that it encourages people to think that Austin is this mecca where there are jobs to be had just like that. You have people moving here, some on a lark, thinking that there's a job waiting for them or that they stand a better chance of landing one. That worked in 2004 (I moved here without a job)..but not now. Some industries are stagnant and are making little to no recovery when it comes to jobs. I'll use mine for example -- law. Thanks to the bad economy, the firms are conservatively hiring now. You have a gazillion people applying for one job. I guess the boomtown days are over. not meaning to rain on the parade, but when you read these forecasts and then read about AISD's latest trevails, City of Austin cutting here and there, and the Legislature slicing and dicing...I'd hate for people to move and then lament about how it didn't meet expectations.
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Old 01-29-2011, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Austin
1,795 posts, read 3,166,721 times
Reputation: 1255
The boomtimes are not over, maybe right now as far as the economy is, but there will be plently of boomtimes in the future. 15+Million people out of work will have to work sometime in there lives right?, and the population of the United States is growing not decreasing am I right?
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Old 01-29-2011, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Austin
1,795 posts, read 3,166,721 times
Reputation: 1255
Make this year a better year, a year of a turn around economy if we want our jobs back then we shall have our jobs back is what I say!!!!! Freedom of Speech
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:36 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
172 posts, read 410,135 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by CptnRn View Post
Austin Metro trends of interest to me:

---------area----------------2010....2011...2012
Construction job growth..-1400.....600...1500
Unemployment Rate.........7.1%...6.9%...5.8%
Population, new persons..55,000...60,000...65,000
New Jobs.........................8,200...18,800...25,1 00
Seems like not many new jobs being added for the expected population growth. It seems at that rate the unemployment rate would not be getting that much better
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Old 01-30-2011, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
16,787 posts, read 49,058,726 times
Reputation: 9478
Quote:
Originally Posted by CptnRn
Austin Metro trends of interest to me:

---------area----------------2010....2011...2012
Construction job growth..-1400.....600...1500
Unemployment Rate.........7.1%...6.9%...5.8%
Population, new persons..55,000...60,000...65,000
New Jobs.........................8,200...18,800...25,1 00
Quote:
Originally Posted by LI2Texas View Post
Seems like not many new jobs being added for the expected population growth. It seems at that rate the unemployment rate would not be getting that much better
For 2010 I agree, that was equivalent to 1 job for every 6.7 people who moved here.

For 2011 and 2012 that is one job for every 3.19 and 2.58 people. That is not too bad considering that is roughly 1 job for every family of 3 people moving here.
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