Rain, drought.... put this into perspective for a newbie pls! (Austin: farms, area)

[JohnHenrySDM]

The lack of rain is definitely concerning. But, hey, it's the weather... no sense complaining about it.

The weather forecasts on the other hand, are fair game. They bug me more than the weather. Example: Last summer we had months where every single day (or at least 9 out of 10) there was a "20% chance of showers in the afternoon". Weeks and weeks and weeks of such forecasts where it did not rain a single drop. Honestly, every or nearly every day, "mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers" and weeks and weeks later and still not a single drop. That is maddening.

I'm no mathematician, but after 5 or 6 days of a 20% chance of rain, I expect a little rain.

My pet theory is that they trump up the forecasts to give people a little hope that the monotony of central Texas weather might actually act like weather for a change and be a little unpredictable.

[Pontificator]

This, my friends, is what we call Texas. A land of feast or famine.

[justanothercalifornian]

yes, I'm a weather nerd and I don't care who knows it. Is anyone else totally bummed by our lack of storms this season? What is up?

[die Eichkatze]

Here is something I put together using the Parmer Drought Severity Index.
-2: Moderate Drought
-3: Severe Drought
-4: Extreme Drought
-6: The sky is falling
As a state, Texas is currently at -1.88 for 2011.

If we exprience another drought comparable to the one from the 1950's, we would be in a world of hurt. We have an extra 17 million people living in Texas since this great drought, so the impacts from current droughts are exacerbated by this strain on resources. If the drought of the 50's were to occur today, most of the state would not have enough water to meet basic demands.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by JohnHenrySDM

The lack of rain is definitely concerning. But, hey, it's the weather... no sense complaining about it.

The weather forecasts on the other hand, are fair game. They bug me more than the weather. Example: Last summer we had months where every single day (or at least 9 out of 10) there was a "20% chance of showers in the afternoon". Weeks and weeks and weeks of such forecasts where it did not rain a single drop. Honestly, every or nearly every day, "mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers" and weeks and weeks later and still not a single drop. That is maddening.

I'm no mathematician, but after 5 or 6 days of a 20% chance of rain, I expect a little rain.

My pet theory is that they trump up the forecasts to give people a little hope that the monotony of central Texas weather might actually act like weather for a change and be a little unpredictable.

I'm with you on that. Even this spring, every "cold" front that has come through has had a chance of rain, but we've gotten Nada. All the cold fronts do is bring in extra wind and drier conditions which further exacerbates the drought, then because it's so dry that allows the temps to climb. It's almost as if the cold fronts raise the temperature!

[Exiled Texan]

While drought may not be abnormal, houses in areas prone to wild fire and more folks using the same limited water supply is new.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by justanothercalifornian

yes, I'm a weather nerd and I don't care who knows it. Is anyone else totally bummed by our lack of storms this season? What is up?

Yes I'm kind of bummed. Usually March and April bring some good violent thunderstorms. Besides, after the 13 inches last late September, I made some drainage improvements in my lawn, after having my fence act as a dam in the watershed of my lawn, causing the lower portion of my yard to have 1 foot deep water, I made some improvements whereby now the water will drain out more effectively. Unfortunately, right after the 13 inch rain we had nothing since then, go figure. Still waiting to test my drainage improvements.

[FueledByBlueBell]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

The drought of record is the drought in the 1950s, I worry that this drought will exceed that one. Many more people in central texas now and the pressure on water supplies is immense.

I've been here 20 years, the current drought has me worried.

Agreed

[jobert]

Originally Posted by cBach

It's almost as if the cold fronts raise the temperature!

They do, oddly enough. It's the dry air brought in by the "cold" fronts that is causing the wild swings of 40 degrees in a day in Austin. Some of the driest places in the world are by no surprise, those farthest inland, and by circumstance, driest. They also have the biggest temp swings, such as Yakutsk (101 record high, -84 record low) versus SF (90 record high, 37 record low). Moisture serves as a heat-sink, whether it's humidity or a large body of water.

We might as well be be 1000 miles inland, if the prevailing winds are coming from the W/NW... that's a long ways from the Pacific Ocean.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by jobert

They do, oddly enough. It's the dry air brought in by the "cold" fronts that is causing the wild swings of 40 degrees in a day in Austin. Some of the driest places in the world are by no surprise, those farthest inland, and by circumstance, driest. They also have the biggest temp swings, such as Yakutsk (101 record high, -84 record low) versus SF (90 record high, 37 record low). Moisture serves as a heat-sink, whether it's humidity or a large body of water.

We might as well be be 1000 miles inland, if the prevailing winds are coming from the W/NW... that's a long ways from the Pacific Ocean.

One thing I can't understand though is why these fronts are not wringing out the moisture. Usually you have SE winds prior to a cold front, then the cold front sweeps in, and you have lifting of that humidity which causes clouds and rain. Then, the next day is clear as the drier air comes in, and usually cooler (at night at least). The current pattern is dry and hot, humid and warm, humid and hot, then dry and warm, then dry and hot. And of course each time it doesn't rain, the soil moisture decreases and makes it unlikely the next "storm" will be able to wring out moisture.