Angelou predicts double-digit growth rates in real estate properties for the next three to four years (Dallas: low income, real estate market)

[CptnRn]

I saw this highlighted in the Impact Newspaper this weekend. This annual presentation about the Austin economy actually took place last Dec.

Austin economist forecasts strong growth - Community Impact Newspaper

Austin should expect solid economic growth and a healthy economy in 2013 and 2014, according to one leading economist.

Angelos Angelou, principal executive officer for Angelou Economics, delivered his annual economic forecast Dec. 11.
"We pride ourselves on our forecast and not overshooting our numbers, but I cannot help, given the economic development here, and through the efforts of the city, county and state, but be very bullish for the next year," he said.
Angelou forecast the Austin economy would add 29,000 jobs in 2013 and more than 30,000 in 2014. The strongest growth areas would be in business and professional services, leisure and hospitality, construction, education, and health services.
He predicted that the unemployment rate would drop to 5.2 percent, the lowest it has been since 2008.
He added that he expected Austin would add 130,000 people in two years, closing in on a population of 2 million people.

...
Angelou was bullish about local real estate markets for the next two years.
He said that Austin had only 3.8 months of inventory available and forecast a substantial shortage in single-family housing in the city. He also predicted increases in rents.
"If you don't have a house, buy a house. If you are looking to invest money, buy single-family houses," he said.
He predicted double-digit growth rates in real estate properties for the next three to four years.

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by CptnRn

I saw this highlighted in the Impact Newspaper this weekend. This annual presentation about the Austin economy actually took place last Dec.

Austin economist forecasts strong growth - Community Impact Newspaper

What happened to the great housing shortage predicted a couple of years ago?

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by 10scoachrick

What happened to the great housing shortage predicted a couple of years ago?

Austin has 3 months inventory and apartment occupation rates north of 97%. How do you define housing shortage?

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by Komeht

Austin has 3 months inventory and apartment occupation rates north of 97%. How do you define housing shortage?

Well, if all construction were to cease or 'we' ran out of land, I'd say a shortage could be down the road. There's plenty of both 'up here' in north Austin and surrounding areas.

[atxcio]

I am amazed at how many new dwelling units are being built right now in the city. If you drive down South Lamar, it seems like every other block has been razed and is being replaced by a 200 or so unit apartment complex. There must be at least 1500 new units under construction just on that one segment of Lamar from the river to Ben White. Add in other areas like downtown, Barton Springs Rd, the rest of the south congress are, and there have got to be several thousand new apartments or condos in the works.

Now, several thousand might be a drop in the bucket compared to the folks coming in, but I have to wonder if that's going to start affecting vacancy rates and rents before too long.

[CptnRn]

What Angelou actually predicted in 2011 was this: 2011-2012 Economic Forcast for Austin Metro Area

http://www.angeloueconomics.com/docu...orecast_HR.pdf (broken link)
Angelou Economics - News [Presentations]

Page 15 in the second document talks about the Residential real estate market.

Quote:
One would expect that a cool housing market in an area experiencing population growth would face a
tighter rental market, and this is indeed occurring in Austin. Decreased housing demand has begun to
heat up the multi-family housing market. In 2010, average rents grew to nearly $1.00 per square foot
on average, a near historic high. Occupancy rates steadily improved through the year to currently stand
at 93.4%. With only 1,500 units under construction and a limited supply of units being planned, it is
likely prices will be sustained at high levels.

Occupancy rates have gone from 93.4% to 97%. It seems that his predictions were correct.

[10scoachrick]

Originally Posted by atxcio

I am amazed at how many new dwelling units are being built right now in the city. If you drive down South Lamar, it seems like every other block has been razed and is being replaced by a 200 or so unit apartment complex. There must be at least 1500 new units under construction just on that one segment of Lamar from the river to Ben White. Add in other areas like downtown, Barton Springs Rd, the rest of the south congress are, and there have got to be several thousand new apartments or condos in the works.

Now, several thousand might be a drop in the bucket compared to the folks coming in, but I have to wonder if that's going to start affecting vacancy rates and rents before too long.

I think the old adage applies: "Location, location, location". Sure, certain areas will experience a 'shortage' of housing...others will have plenty of apts and SFH available. If more people want to live in an area that has a limited supply, do we call that a 'housing shortage'?

If apts are at 97%, good for the landlords and let's hope they can afford to keep their properties in good shape. Seems the renters want the occupancy levels to drop(a lot) so rents can be suppressed by the market. Is the perfect level 93% or 97%...depends on whom you ask.

Similar in the housing market...current shoppers want a glut of units available so prices are held down and they have three dozen homes to view. This way they get their dream home at a 'bargain price'. The day AFTER they close, however, they want the supply to dwindle so folks are fighting to re-purchase that home at a tidy profit to the first owner.

Funny that.

It ain't a shortage until someone can't find a house or apt.

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by atxcio

I am amazed at how many new dwelling units are being built right now in the city. If you drive down South Lamar, it seems like every other block has been razed and is being replaced by a 200 or so unit apartment complex. There must be at least 1500 new units under construction just on that one segment of Lamar from the river to Ben White. Add in other areas like downtown, Barton Springs Rd, the rest of the south congress are, and there have got to be several thousand new apartments or condos in the works.

Now, several thousand might be a drop in the bucket compared to the folks coming in, but I have to wonder if that's going to start affecting vacancy rates and rents before too long.

There are 150 or so people moving to Austin a day. 1500 under construction is nothing - it's less than a months worth of people moving here.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by veronica7

Are you familiar with the Dallas Real Estate market?

What happens to any part of the country if the U.S. defaults on its debt? And massive spending cuts cause unemployment?

What happens if the Mayans were right and the world ends after 2012, but they were just a few months off?

[creepy]

We have a housing shortage for low income Austinites and that makes me sad and a little angry. I voted for low income housing but it did not get passed. Hopefully in the future voters will pass it in the meantime I read 2 city council members are making headway with some low income housing.