the appreciation guessing game - crestview or highland park west? (Austin: 2013, apartment complexes)

[ladylonghorn2]

Next spring we're looking to buy a fixer upper and live in it while making improvements. Do you think that we'll see greater appreciation in Highland Park West, or Crestview / Brentwood. HP has HP Elementary, which is exemplary, where as Brentwood Elementary is recognized (for whatever that is worth, I take all that with a grain of salt).

If you could buy a fixer upper in either area, what would you choose and why? Looking to stay in the house for at about 5-7 years and update the house, open up some rooms, enlarge windows, etc. but not do a total to the studs gut remodel.

[atxcio]

I'd say Highland Park west, as long as you aren't right on Mopac. It's got the combo of hills and some spectacular mid-century homes which were custom, high end from the start. You've got Camp Mabry, probably something that will not change in our lifetimes, so very stable from a development standpoint. There are a very limited amount of areas in Austin like that, and that gives you the near-guarantee of appreciation over time.

The Crestview area is more of a bet -- obviously you may be able to get in at a lower price, then make your money on the trends (that are expected to continue) to help transform that area of old, tract homes into a vibrant in-town neighborhood. But you have more uncertainty of what will be built where, how the new apartment complexes might turn out, whether an economic slowdown affects remodeling of he older homes, etc. I suppose there is a little more uncertainty with the schools too; if the area stops attracting new families, like SoCo, then some may close and boundaries will change. I haven't seen that do any real damage to SoCo property values, but it could eventually.

[sua2017]

I would guess Highland Park West. Its just the fact that Hills will attract more people than flat land. Highland Park has no top when it comes to how expensive homes can get and in Crestview you will rarely see a home exceeds 700k. Highland Park has more of a luxury neighborhood thought. Also many kids who go to Highland Park Elementary school do transfer to Murchison Middle and Anderson High School on an IB transfer. Many of them live closer to those schools than he assigned middle and high school and those schools are each rated much higher than the assigned schools for the area. I graduated from Anderson High School with over a dozen kids who went to Highland Park elementary school, and only around 75 kids are in each class of HPES.

[ladylonghorn2]

What about houses in HPW closer to mopac (but not right up against it)? That seems to be the area we can afford more easily. I'm not jazzed about hearing mopac but it seems our best bet at our price. Would you still vote HPW over something central feeding into Brentwood elementary?

Thanks!

[centralaustinite]

The HP area will cost you more upfront and make appreciation trickier. You should be able to get a better location (within the neighborhood itself) in Crestview.

TEA has changed the school rankings, no more exemplary, recognized etc. The new system will favor schools with more diverse populations (especially economically) and Brentwood will do quite well.

In HP you can get a $400K house and put $100K in it and sell it for $750-800K in 5 years. In Crestview, you could get a dump at $250K put $100K in it and sell it at 400-500K in five years. YMIW.

Even in central Austin, it can be foolish to bet solely appreciation. I know folks who bought in 2005 and life forced them to sell in 2008-9 and it was painful. Whereas if they could have waited until this spring, they would make out like bandits. Houses are big, illiquid money sucks. Be careful.

[riaelise]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

The HP area will cost you more upfront and make appreciation trickier. You should be able to get a better location (within the neighborhood itself) in Crestview.

TEA has changed the school rankings, no more exemplary, recognized etc. The new system will favor schools with more diverse populations (especially economically) and Brentwood will do quite well.

In HP you can get a $400K house and put $100K in it and sell it for $750-800K in 5 years. In Crestview, you could get a dump at $250K put $100K in it and sell it at 400-500K in five years. YMIW.

Even in central Austin, it can be foolish to bet solely appreciation. I know folks who bought in 2005 and life forced them to sell in 2008-9 and it was painful. Whereas if they could have waited until this spring, they would make out like bandits. Houses are big, illiquid money sucks. Be careful.

Exactly. I never thought of homes as investments. I always chose a place based on my own personal needs and if it happened to make some coin, great. I made money from a condo in NYC by buying low and selling high. I don't think that will happen again in NYC, though. Timing is everything. The area I'm in now is out in the burbs, but lately the area has picked up in sales. I'd actually make some money now, go figure. I bought relatively low, too.

[ladylonghorn2]

Definitely not making decision solely on appreciation. Been looking at both areas for a while and like both. They're so different so it's hard to compare. So now I'm sort of at a place where I'm looking for other variables.

Both schools seem good... I like the more central location of crestview but HPW is more scenic. So when looking for fixer uppers, both areas have a lot going for them. Hence my curiosity about the potential future value.

Thanks for the input. Would love to hear other thoughts about the 2 neighborhoods.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by ladylonghorn2

Both schools seem good... I like the more central location of crestview but HPW is more scenic. So when looking for fixer uppers, both areas have a lot going for them. Hence my curiosity about the potential future value.

As a long-time Austinite, I'd consider HPW more central than Crestview. It's always been that way. HPW is basically the area just north of Mabry, so we are talking about around 45th street or the 45th block north of the river (realizing that the E-W streets don't run strictly E-W). It's more connected to the "original grid", despite being on the west side of Mopac.

Crestview is way beyond the numbered streets, and bordered by Anderson (and even a part of 183), which until the last decade or so was considered far north Austin rather than central.

Of course, that might just be the older Austin in me talking. I know most people now would consider Crestview central.

Centralaustinite makes good points, from a pure appreciation percentage Crestview has more potential upside if you buy a fixer-upper. But HPW has a higher top end, and less potential to ever decrease in value. I mean, look how close you are to Lake Austin and Mount Bonnell. That's an extremely desirable and rare location. If you were considering something closer to Mopac (but not right next to it, since those properties will always have a problem with resale compared to the rest of the neighborhood) -- definitely make yourself familiar with the Mopac improvements that are about to begin construction:

Mopac Improvement Project

In particular, the sound walls being built may help with the roadway noise, and the express lanes might reduce some of the neighborhood cut-through traffic that currently happens because of the traffic and lack of access roads there. Of course, it might also be a hassle during construction.

Ultimately I think it will come down to individual properties and what you'd be most happy to live in. That is the most important thing; the expectation of appreciation is secondary, and both neighborhoods have very good qualities. Will you enjoy the exclusivity of the HPW lifestyle, or the potential vibrance of a revitalizing/down-to-earth area like Crestview? Do you like the more suburban character (despite being more central) of HPW or the more urban (but farther out) feel of Crestview? Will you feel house-poor because of a more expensive fixer upper in HPW? Bottom line, you'll be choosing from only a handful of properties available in both areas, so it may just come down to what is available that feels best to you.

[scm53]

Originally Posted by centralaustinite

TEA has changed the school rankings, no more exemplary, recognized etc. The new system will favor schools with more diverse populations (especially economically) and Brentwood will do quite well.

Bit of an oversimplification. The "Academic Achievement" recognition in ELA and Math will continue to identify the schools that are Exemplary now. Yes - there is reward for "progress". But the AA awards track closely to the standards of today's ratings - attendance rate and test score achievement (as well as AP/IB, SAT scores, etc).

Read for yourself.

[capcat]

You've narrowed it down to two very good neighborhoods, with two very different atmospheres, as someone alluded to. I could live in either...I have lived in one with the feel of Crestview (Allandale) and currently live just west of Highland Park. I've always thought Crestview homes were priced higher for the home you get, but will likely appreciate more, with the current transformation of Burnet Rd. Crestview is more walkable (depending on where in Crestview) to businesses and churches, which gives it a nice, homey feel, and has better access to public transportation if that's something you might use. That said, it's a little cramped and access to major thoroughfares, like Mopac or 183, is kind of a winding, stop light laden path. I grew a little tired of that. But, you'd be close to an increasingly diverse choice of businesses, neighborhood restaurants, etc. Highland Park is more spacious with better access to Mopac, 183, etc. I like the space and layout of these lots near HPW, the trees, the wildlife, the topography. I grew tired of the flatness in our old neighborhood (in Allandale, we neighbors referred to our area as the flatlands). I just needed more interesting surroundings, wrt nature. Architecturally, etc., the homes in HPW are of better quality. For example, we had what I'd call a pseudo ranch style home in Allandale, but in HPW, you notice the true ranch style, with a wonderful flow from inside to outside, which was a second living area, by design in the ranch movement. Wide eaves, etc, all of that just changes the ambiance. HPW is lovely, Crestview is homey, and depending on my mood of the day, I might prefer one over the other. You really can't go wrong unless you buy right next to Mopac. Both are great neighborhoods. Look at your lot, your home, your particular street, the location in the neighborhoods. That will play a role in what you will enjoy and what someone else will value if you decide to sell in a few years.