How many decades before the hill country is built out?

[Uberguber]

Originally Posted by Gorfml

it will be like Detroit in 5 years obviously...

You're being facetious. It will only look like Detroit AFTER the water runs out, and that's on the west side of town (the dry side).

[scm53]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

30 years ago you couldn't give away land in SW Austin because it had no practical value.

Where were you to keep me from paying $85K for my house in Scenic Brook thirty years ago? If I had only known that they were giving land away ...

Enjoy Dove Springs. You've spent this entire thread talking yourself out of SW. Do what's right for you.

[Uberguber]

Better to live central, east or, downtown. At least the traffic and density has been factored in, and we have options. I am intrigued by your suggestion of Dove springs. I could buy a small urban ranch there for the same price as a lot in the hill country, build new, and be a fraction of the distance to downtown. That area probably has more long-term upside, and is actually constrained by limited supply.

[CptnRn]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Anyone want to venture a guess as to how many years worth of supply we have in the hill country?

There are people scouring this forum thinking of moving here, and they deserve an honest answer.

I think it's about 80 years worth that will be accompanied by a slow decline in the quality of life for it's residents.

80 years worth is an absurd estimate. I have lived in Austin since 1977, 40 years, yet development since that time in the SW Austin area has been far more limited than what you are projecting. In 1977 West William Cannon Drive was mostly undeveloped land, Sunset Valley was mostly pasture land. Since then the development has crept out past Circle C. The distance from Sunset Valley to Circle C is only about 6 miles. As you expand the circumference of a circle of development around Austin, the land area inside that larger circumference increases exponentially. So its safe to say if the same development rates continue the development density of that larger circumference will be much less.

So in another 40 years a similar rate of development will probably be only 4.5 miles further out and in 80 years it will probably be only another 7.5 miles farther than it is today. So you might see similar density extending out around Dripping Springs, Pace Bend and Kyle in the SW. But that falls far short of the OP's absurd contentions that the hill country will all be used up.

Granted, there are a lot of other factors that come into play, such as development follows highways, and the steeper slopes of hill country land make it more expensive to develop and less of it can be converted into housing subdivisions, i.e. it will be lower density development, which is why it is also results in higher real estate costs per residence.

[ppp38]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Better to live central, east or, downtown. At least the traffic and density has been factored in, and we have options. I am intrigued by your suggestion of Dove springs. I could buy a small urban ranch there for the same price as a lot in the hill country, build new, and be a fraction of the distance to downtown. That area probably has more long-term upside, and is actually constrained by limited supply.

Have fun building your urban ranch in the middle of a flood plain. That sounds like an awesome idea. I suspect that the undeveloped land in East side of this city will become filled with the working class that are being forced out of the city since Real Estate on the East side is dirt cheap. East Austin will probably look a lot like Manor. It seems a tad ridiculous to lump East with Central/Downtown.

[Trainwreck20]

People are being charged more for something because they are told it's in limited supply when it isn't.

Who is telling anybody that land out there is in limited supply? One of the reasons that people are moving out there is because there is so much land....

Now, land that has access to utilities (water, gas, sewage, waste) is limited to areas where developers have set up a MUD or something. You could call the a limit on supply (a shortage) sort of.

[Roadking2003]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

But the time it takes to get downtown grows every year because of the developemtn further out. Same distance to DT, increased time in traffic to get downtown, but the prices will go up anyways? Doesn't compute.

That's because a huge number of people living in the Hill country don't go downtown. I get to downtown about once or twice per year.

[Roadking2003]

Originally Posted by Uberguber

Anyone want to venture a guess as to how many years worth of supply we have in the hill country?

There are people scouring this forum thinking of moving here, and they deserve an honest answer.

I think it's about 80 years worth that will be accompanied by a slow decline in the quality of life for it's residents.

Why would the quality of life decline?