Mayor and council runoffs - why Austin bashers? (Shady Hollow, West: 2014, lawyers)

[hillcountryheart]

There's a reason I put "Republican" in quotes... and am trying to stay away from "Tea Party" as well.

My concern is over having candidates who have, in their professional lives, worked to bash Austin via lawsuit over SOS and as chief aide to Jason Isaac. I have read that Adler has said that as mayor he'll uphold SOS and all other city policies, but he made his money bashing it. I'm wondering why people are fawning over Troxclair other than youth and good looks, because she simply has not been around district 8 long enough to know the issues. I also have a healthy suspicion about electing people who have been lifelong politicos - although perhaps we're now such a big city that this is to be expected. I really miss Max.

[Aquitaine]

District 8 is the burbs. Most of the candidates sounded like they came right off the Circle C Facebook page: 'no more roads! no more anything! no!'

I recall looking at a half-dozen candidate websites and Ellen's was one of the only ones (though not the only one) that actually had issue-related questions right up front and her answers to them. Many of the others were all 'so-and-so is super great and grew up in Texas and is great' as if we were electing a prom King and Queen.

I am not even sure what to make of a suggestion that Ellen has ties to the tea party. We could elect Rand Paul to the Austin City council and it wouldn't make one lick of difference: there's still the whole rest of Austin, and at most you'd see what, two, maybe three centrist conservatives? The type of conservatism you run into in SW Austin is pretty drab: it's stuff like 'why does AISD spend so much money for such a terrible result' and 'wow that's a lot of property taxes' and 'let's maybe not build this train to nowhere.'

The only sense in which I've ever felt that even suburban Austin is Republican is that it's just not as religiously democrat as much of the city.

[hillcountryheart]

Ellen has the time and a whole host of supporters to help her get her message out. Most people with day jobs (read: hard to abandon temporarily, as in not as a legislative aide) cannot spend that amount of time on a campaign. Are we at the point that being elected to council means having a typical politico day job (lawyer, real estate agent, etc) that can be temporarily placed on hold?

[ImOnFiya]

Here are my picks for the runoff races:

Mayor - Steve Adler (D)
District 1 - Ora Houston (D)
District 4 - Gregorio Casar (D)
District 6 - Ron Zimmerman (R)
District 8 - Ellen Troxclair (R)
District 10 - Sheri Gallo (R)

My reasons are as follows:

District 1 - Ora Houston was already at 49% in the general, shouldn't take her much to get older supporters to the polls and finish off DeWayne Lofton.
District 4 - Gregorio Casar has David Butts as his campaign manager and his opponent libertarian Laura Pressley cannot stay on message and make the race a referendum on Casar.
District 6 - Republican registration is too high vs. the Democrats. Zimmerman and fellow Republican Jay Wiley placed #1 and #3 respectively. Democrat Jimmy Flanigan has an uphill climb. Dem runoff support will suffer because of how he treated Dem Matt Stillwell on flimsy "anti-gay" charges in last days of general.
District 8 - Republican Ellen Troxclair is for SH-45 while Dem Ed Scruggs comes from old time SOS-guard and thus is against. That, in addition of Troxclair's enormous political and grassroots support from State and Travis County Republican party circles should put this race over the top in her favor.
District 10 - Dem Mandy Dealey placed #1 in the general. But, Republican candidates placed #2, #3, #5, #6 in a crowded field. Overall, 54% of district 10 voters were Republican. In addition, Dealey only Dem from old West Austin, rest Dems from Northwest. Northwest Dems not familiar with Dealey or family name, vs. positive rep regarding Sheri Gallo and greater Republican enthusiam. Lower runoff early vote turnout tends to favor Republicans, older white voters.
Mayor - Lower runoff early vote turnout favoring Republicans, older white voters. Adler won west Austin and 84% of Republican voters. Mike Martinez strongest support in east side districts #2, #3 which tend to produce less voters than other areas of Austin.

[ppp38]

FYI, n this last election, District 8 voted primarily for the Democrats. Not sure where the assertion that District 8 leans Republican is coming from.

[ImOnFiya]

Originally Posted by ppp38

FYI, n this last election, District 8 voted primarily for the Democrats. Not sure where the assertion that District 8 leans Republican is coming from.

Dem Mandy Dealer though #1 in the general was swarmed by Republican competition of which including Dem Tina Cannon (save #3 Robert Thomas) have since endorsed Sheri Gallo (R).

Source: In Austin council runoffs, some nonpartisan races have... | www.mystatesman.com

In District 10, which includes many of the hillside communities that hug the curves of Lake Austin, Democrat Dealey was the top vote-getter in the general election. Many political observers had expected attorney Robert Thomas to join Dealey in the runoff. During the campaign, Thomas described himself as a moderate Republican but said that “for a nonpartisan race, I think (party) is totally irrelevant,” lamenting what he considered too much partisan rancor. With Dealey attacking him for his Republican ties and another opponent, Sheri Gallo, saying he wasn’t Republican enough, Thomas finished third, behind Dealey and Gallo, and missed the runoff.

Conservatives Bill Worsham and Matt Lamon, who didn’t make the District 10 runoff, have endorsed Gallo.

[Austin97]

thanks everyone for the insight into the candidates.

[ppp38]

Originally Posted by ImOnFiya

Dem Mandy Dealer though #1 in the general was swarmed by Republican competition of which including Dem Tina Cannon (save #3 Robert Thomas) have since endorsed Sheri Gallo (R).

Source: In Austin council runoffs, some nonpartisan races have... | www.mystatesman.com

What does District 10 have to do with District 8?

[ImOnFiya]

Originally Posted by ppp38

What does District 10 have to do with District 8?

Nothing. In my mind, I thought you were talking about District 10, not District 8. Sorry!

[ImOnFiya]

In general, for districts 6, 8, and 10: the runoff races have run like a partisan numbers game. Both Democrat and Republican candidates trying to motivate voters to the polls thru grassroots contact and manufactured outrage. However, with the first week of runoff early voting lagging and more Republicans having voted in these districts in the general, thus, why many election watchers predict Republican victories in probably at least 2 out of 3 races.