Austin Home sales decline for sixth straight month (Taylor, Bastrop: jumbo loan, real estate)

[atlanta hope]

I read this today... interesting...

Home sales decline for sixth straight month (broken link)

[Derek ATX]

That's a pretty accurate assesment of the current situation. As was noted in the article, it depends on the actual location as to what the situation is. For example, if you were looking to buy in the SW area (Circle C, Legend Oaks, even Belterra) you wouldn't be able tell the diffence between 2006 and 2007. In this area, there is only about 2 months of inventory and average days on market is around 30 days. In contrast, areas that have struggled with foreclosures such as SE Austin have an average of 63 days on market and 3.4 months of inventory. Other areas that continue to see appreciation, increased number of transactions, and shorter days on market are areas such as Westlake, Rollingwood, South Austin, and Tarrytown, just to name a few. Yes, there have been declining numbers in the overall MLS statistics, but just as each real estate market is different nation wide, so are the areas in those local markets. If you look at the statistics closely, you will realize that the individual areas with the longest days on market and most available inventory are the outlining areas to the east such as Bastrop, Taylor, and Caldwell County. These are areas that are not in the metropolitan area of Austin, yet they are part of our MLS and are considered in our overal statistics. If you know the area where you want to live and are holding out trying to "time" the market, make sure you get the stats and information for that particular MLS area as opposed to the Austin area as a whole.

[70Ford]

Real estate markets are in the same boat, regardless of location. They all need loans, which are harder to get now...and they all are all in decline.

Or readjusting to normalcy, instead of fantasy.

[Derek ATX]

Yes, loans are harder to get, but that typicaly effects certain areas of the market where people were receiving loans they never should have been approved for in the first place. As a result, areas on the lower end of the price range are seeing a large increase in defaults and therefore greater inventory and an overal decline. On the other side, as a result of Austin's job growth and overall appeal as a very desireable place to live, homes in the mid to upper range (320K and up) and the neighborhoods they are in are still seeing appreciation, shorter days on market, and a low month supply of available homes.

[southdown]

If you take that argument to its logical end, the path leads to two separate communities - ghettoes and gated.

[casualobserver]

Derek, if it's not too much bother, how are the stats for NW from Mo-Pac out toward Lake Travis along 2222?

[austin-steve]

Originally Posted by southdown

If you take that argument to its logical end, the path leads to two separate communities - ghettoes and gated.

Upper end homes are affested also because loans over $417K are "jumbo loans" and the interest rates at present are terrible.

[woodinvilleguy]

I just got a loan and it wasn't a problem at all. It was quite smooth. I assume the loan problems are occuring for people who will be stretched for payments.

[llkltk]

Originally Posted by atlanta hope

I read this today... interesting...

Home sales decline for sixth straight month (broken link)

As long as you don't want to buy in Central Austin, SW Austin, NW Austin or any of the hot areas then maybe you will find a deal. Forget about the great areas to live in Austin, those sales are NOT in decline.

Actually, the article was quite positive. "However, home prices still climbed, with the median up 8 percent in November from a year earlier, to $185,500." That sounds good to me.

[austin-steve]

I'm looking at some MLS inventory stats I just ran.

There is still less than 4 month's inventory below $200K in Austin.

From $200,001 to $300K, there is 4 month's inventory.

$300,001-$400K is 5.7 months.

6 month's inventory is considered equalibrium between buyers and sellers market. It's not until we get above $400K the the inventory jumps to 7 months and higher as the price range increases.

In the price ranges between $250K and up, there are more sales in 2007 than 2006 in ever price bracket except the $650K-$800K range, which fell 1.9%

The headline of "decline" actually only reflects homes priced below $250K. The rest of the market saw more sales than last year, with the one exception noted above.

Steve