Interesting Austin Economics (Center: 2009, apartments, rental)

[Trainwreck20]

I just went to an economics seminar and would love to post the slides, but they appear to be copyrighted .

Anyway, a few interesting bits of trivia:

• Most areas of the country have a net migration to Austin, with the exception of (in order of magnitude):
  1. D.C
  2. Tennesse
  3. Seattle
• For the postive migration areas, the top three originations are:
  1. L.A.
  2. Chicago
  3. Overseas
• Job growth across the board will be good in 2008 (projected), but construction will barely be above a percent, and financial and information will be around 3%. Most other sectors are projected at between 4 and 8%. Job growth will be about a third slower than in 2007's torrid pace (~29000 in 2007)
• The population increase will be almost the same as 2007 (~42000 people)
• Austin is the top DVR user market in the US (31%)
• Austin is the top blog reading/contributing market in the US.
• Apartments are continuing to see increases in occupancy rate and rental rates (per sq. ft).
• Austin is extremely well poised in the alternative energy market (private companies, venture capital).

Those are just some of the interesting points, it was quite a good presentation by a respectable economic analyst company.

[jco]

Did the lecturer comment on whether or not the construction slowdown is going to be mostly residential or did they think it would hit commercial as well?

[Trainwreck20]

The seminar was geared toward business, so it did not focus on residential, per se, but the general view was that 'main street' was still healthy and the weaker dollar would help some areas of the US commercial economy. The focus was Austin, as well, so a lot of that would not apply to other locations, but Austin is relatively well positioned, as is the rest of the state. There were some business indicators

• Retail almost the same growth rate in 2008-2009 as in 2007 (avg. 6.5% vs projected 7% in 2007)
• Commercial office vacancy rate is ~13%, down from 19% in 2004.
• Industrial vacancy rate is ~9%, down from 21% in 2004.
• Retail vacancy has bounced between 6 and 7% since 2004, but grown by ~7.5% since 2004
• Data shows a very significant drop in number of residentail new housing starts.
• Projected Economic Development Oppurtunities
  1. Alternative Energy
  2. IT/Software/Creative Media
  3. Diagnostic and Medical devices
  4. Data Centers
  5. Export Oriented Manufacturing
  6. Warehousing/distribution

A second speaker went into more of a global economy discussion, and one intesting point is the more self sufficient nature of developing countries. Many of the 'Third World' countries are less dependent on the US economy and may provide somewhat of a buffer to global recession.

[S6Sputnik]

Interesting info, thank you for sharing!

[elliott]

Just read this thread. That doesnt look good for me. I am in construction and hoping to find a job at the end of the year.
Very interesting info!

[xsloane]

Interesting info. Thanks for sharing.