Austin traffic update: we're scr*wed (Van, Canadian: to buy, calculation, professionals)

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Roadking2003

Flex schedules and work at home plans are much more cost effective than rail.

Except for all those people for whom it doesn't work.


All the low hanging fruit with working at home is already picked. In fact, many employers are pushing back on it, because in many cases it doesn't work.

It's not a realistic 100% solution for Austin. It can be part of it, but claiming it's going to solve everything and make transit not needed is laughable.

Originally Posted by Roadking2003

But they aren't "sexy" so the mayor isn't interested.

#AustinDontRush Campaign Fights Traffic With Flex

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by Novacek

Except for all those people for whom it doesn't work.


All the low hanging fruit with working at home is already picked. In fact, many employers are pushing back on it, because in many cases it doesn't work.

It's not a realistic 100% solution for Austin. It can be part of it, but claiming it's going to solve everything and make transit not needed is laughable.

When working with people that work 8-5 in the office jobs like sales it can be hard to have a flex schedule. Also think schools, doctors, hospital staff (PT/OT, Speech, rehab etc not nurses). I agree that flex schedule work great...for some people. The idea that it would work for everyone is ridiculous. I could not do my job working 10-7...my clients are here 8- 4:30.

[Nacho_Friend]

Originally Posted by cBach

Most of the growth in Houston is through birth and intrastate migration. So are you suggesting a national one birth policy or restricting intrastate migrations? Hmm, that sounds awfully like China was.

Yeah, you got me.

Americans should never be prevented from interstate or instrate migration. Nor should population restrictions ever be put on any American. Freedom of internal movement and reproduction is an absolute.

That said, the Houston MSA - to use your example - grew by 150k people last year. At least 30k of those are from the H1B/H4 categories alone. That's an extra 30k cars on the road just from just visa holders. Throw in other legal and illegal immigrants and you're quickly eating into that 150k number (or expanding it). The other thing that you have to admit is that interstate migration is a knock-on effect from immigration into the cities from which internal migrants are fleeing.

Example: A whole bunch of wealthy Asians buy up all the real estate in Arcadia, CA? Well, I guess it's time to escape to Texas where real estate is cheaper, taxes are low and jobs are plentiful. Texas then has to pay for the new infrastructure to support California refugees and international immigrants.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend

At least 30k of those are from the H1B/H4 categories alone. That's an extra 30k cars on the road just from just visa holders.

You're going to need to source that number. H1B is limited to 65k _nationwide_ per year. Hard to imagine Houston would get close to 1/4 of those, especially with its lower emphasis on software.


You're also completely ignoring that a lot of H1B holder will be replacing former H1B holders, as they are forced to return.

[CarnivalGal]

Originally Posted by ashbeeigh

When working with people that work 8-5 in the office jobs like sales it can be hard to have a flex schedule. Also think schools, doctors, hospital staff (PT/OT, Speech, rehab etc not nurses). I agree that flex schedule work great...for some people. The idea that it would work for everyone is ridiculous. I could not do my job working 10-7...my clients are here 8- 4:30.

I agree that a lot of people can't (like me - I'm a teacher). But a lot of people can, like my husband who works in IT. He doesn't work from home (although he can do some things from home), but he can go in and leave when he wants to avoid rush hour. He allows his employees to do the same (he heads the IT dept.). As long as they're getting their work done, he doesn't care if they do it at 9am or midnight. In fact, a lot of them prefer to work late at night because there are less distractions of everyone else there (other depts).

[Nacho_Friend]

Originally Posted by Novacek

You're going to need to source that number. H1B is limited to 65k _nationwide_ per year. Hard to imagine Houston would get close to 1/4 of those, especially with its lower emphasis on software.


You're also completely ignoring that a lot of H1B holder will be replacing former H1B holders, as they are forced to return.

Here's the data for just Houston: H1B Visa Salary Database 2016 - Employer, Job, or Location

Add in the surrounding cities (Sugar Land, Katy, etc) and you're at around 20k. Assuming a 50% H4 to H1B rate and you're at 30k. And that's just two visa categories.

Additional items:
1) Yes, some will be replacing H1Bs that are returning. Yet, many H1Bs will never return. Research suggests that 25% get green cards every year.
2) Additionally, H1B sponsors work the system by extending visas for 6 years and then getting credit for time spent abroad every year towards a 1 year "out of country" requirement. It happens all the time.
3) the number of H1B visas has EXPLODED in the last 8 years. In Houston in 2009, there were 3,900 H1B applications and in 2015, 15,900.

And you wonder why infrastructure cannot keep up with population growth.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by CarnivalGal

I agree that a lot of people can't (like me - I'm a teacher). But a lot of people can, like my husband who works in IT. He doesn't work from home (although he can do some things from home), but he can go in and leave when he wants to avoid rush hour. He allows his employees to do the same (he heads the IT dept.). As long as they're getting their work done, he doesn't care if they do it at 9am or midnight. In fact, a lot of them prefer to work late at night because there are less distractions of everyone else there (other depts).

I think a lot of that has to do with company culture as well. If you're a big corporation with headquarters in New York City where everyone sits at their desk from 8-5 and they trickle that culture down to their satelite offices it's going to be hard to change. Is the mayor going to travel all around the world and ask Samsung, Apple, etc to "pretty please let your Austin employees work a flex schedule to help our traffic."? I doubt it. Some people see it as easy. It's not. I mean, shoot, CoA doesn't even do it (as mentioned before).

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend

Here's the data for just Houston: H1B Visa Salary Database 2016 - Employer, Job, or Location

"This website indexed Labor Condition Application ("LCA") disclosure data from UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Prior to filing the H-1B petition with the USCIS, an employer must file a LCA with the Department of Labor.
A Labor Condition Application ("LCA") is used by employers as supporting evidence for the petition for an H-1B visa.
DOL disclosure data does not indicate the employer's intended use for the LCA."


So this list isn't even the number of H1B _applications_, much less those that were actually awarded in Houston.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Novacek

"This website indexed Labor Condition Application ("LCA") disclosure data from UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Prior to filing the H-1B petition with the USCIS, an employer must file a LCA with the Department of Labor.
A Labor Condition Application ("LCA") is used by employers as supporting evidence for the petition for an H-1B visa.
DOL disclosure data does not indicate the employer's intended use for the LCA."


So this list isn't even the number of H1B _applications_, much less those that were actually awarded in Houston.

Let's repeat your "calculation" for Austin.

That database lists 5500 certified for Austin. Using that same multiplier (suburbs and dependents) and it would be 11k per year.


So you're claiming that of the 19k population growth of Austin last year, 11k was H1B/H4? Almost no natural population growth/internal migration?

[cBach]

Originally Posted by Nacho_Friend

Yeah, you got me.