Llano River flooding. (Dallas, Austin, Anderson Mill: 2013, farmers, build)

[cBach]

Originally Posted by afterdark80

There is a major rain event coming next week, starting around Tuesday/Wednesday. This flooding is not over. Lake Travis will continue to rise until Friday, and possibly see a couple of days of draw down, but the tropical moisture coming next week is forecast to dump 4+ inches of rain right smack in the middle of the central Texas runoff basins.
With saturated ground and full lakes, they should open the gates now and lower the levels prior to the arrival of these heavy rains.

That's not the way it works. Think of Lake Travis as a water storage tank. You wait until it's full before you start dumping out water.

There are published guidelines on how to handle the releases based on lake level. There is still a good 8 feet (currently 702) before they can increase the release. No other water body has the capacity that Travis does, so we have to use it.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by afterdark80

There is a major rain event coming next week, starting around Tuesday/Wednesday. This flooding is not over. Lake Travis will continue to rise until Friday, and possibly see a couple of days of draw down, but the tropical moisture coming next week is forecast to dump 4+ inches of rain right smack in the middle of the central Texas runoff basins.
With saturated ground and full lakes, they should open the gates now and lower the levels prior to the arrival of these heavy rains.

They have the gates open. If they open more, then there is guaranteed significant damage ($$) downstream - Lake Austin (property), Town Lake (road closures and HnB trail damage) and some damage all the way through Bastrop, La Grange, and Columbus. Buchanan is gaining capacity slowly and Travis is losing it slowly. If the rain falls upstream of Buchanan, then it is easier to deal with as the days go by until then. If it falls on the Travis watershed, then they may have to open more gates to deal with it. But they have some breathing space for the moment and you don't want to contribute to flooding downstream, either - if a bunch of rain falls on the coastal area in addition to large releases from Travis, the flooding could be compounded.

They CAN release it now if they PROJECT that the level will exceed 710 (even if it is well below). I think they are projecting right under 710 for now and will wait a bit longer to see if the rain develops. There was significant rain projected for today over Llano/Brady, and it never happened. Also, the 4" of rain is localized, the average across the watershed is <2". The news guys only talk the exciting numbers :/.

[Austin97]

Originally Posted by cBach

That's not the way it works. Think of Lake Travis as a water storage tank. You wait until it's full before you start dumping out water.

There are published guidelines on how to handle the releases based on lake level. There is still a good 8 feet (currently 702) before they can increase the release. No other water body has the capacity that Travis does, so we have to use it.

This seems to not be true. Releases are based on the forecasted levels, not on actual levels.

It would be better to do releases now (which is what they are doing) at a slower rate so as not to flood downtown vs big releases later when it is close to topping the spillway.

[cBach]

702.52 in Lake Travis. It is increasing very slowly. It was last 701.50 at 9:45 AM. It's increasing about a foot every 8 hours or 3 feet a day. Let's say it'll be around 705 by tomorrow this time when the rain is supposed to end for the most part.

[Trainwreck20]

Originally Posted by cBach

702.52 in Lake Travis. It is increasing very slowly. It was last 701.50 at 9:45 AM. It's increasing about a foot every 8 hours or 3 feet a day. Let's say it'll be around 705 by tomorrow this time when the rain is supposed to end for the most part.

Not ending quite yet. The forecast for Llano (on the Llano River) and Brady (near the San Saba) still have a bit showing up for the next few days. And the rain is just starting to fall out west (last hour rainfall map).

[cBach]

Well Bullock Hollow from Oasis Bluff Drive to 2769 is closed.

Because of that, the "shortcut" from 4 Points to Anderson Mill no longer exists and 620 is backed up from Anderson Mill all the way to the dam.

Yikes, traffic is going to be rough for a few days...

[mhudson78641]

I drove to San Antonio this morning via 1431. I got just past Lago and had turn around. Next time I will check ATXfloods before I leave the house.

[ashbeeigh]

Originally Posted by mhudson78641

I drove to San Antonio this morning via 1431. I got just past Lago and had turn around. Next time I will check ATXfloods before I leave the house.

Well tried. You didn't make it.

[cBach]

Some updates.

At Hippie Hollow, water is above the asphalt walkway and Hippie Hollow is closed indefinitely. Windy Point is lower elevation and was closed several days ago, the whole park is underwater. Mansfield Dam Park is flooded and closed.

Bullock Hollow is closed the whole length. It is underwater for a good deal of it. The end of Comanche Trail is underwater. Several homes along the lower elevation portions of Comanche Trail are flooded.

Stay tuned.

[Trainwreck20]

LCRA closed two of the eight gates that were open on Buchanan.

25% reduction in flow (more or less) into Travis, down from 56k to 42k.

Sundancer Grill from earlier today: