Austin the next bubble market? (Howe, Holland: sales, real estate, house)

[Exiled Texan]

Went to lunch today with friends from Las Vegas. I was describing the RE market in Austin to them, and they said it sounds just like Las Vegas 2 years ago.

Thoughts?

[TexasHorseLady]

Well, a lot of the same people responsible for the bubble elsewhere are moving to town and driving up prices. (Don't they ever learn>) It's certainly something to take seriously.

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah but if you look at price increases in Las Vegas during the "bubble" they were absurd. Then there was a correction. In Austin, real estate has not appreciated that rapidly, it's been on a slow steady upward trajectory. I don't think it's really a bubble market, unless the entire country slides into a major recession/ depression, which I suppose will happen if enough media personalities/ bloggers/ catastrophists talk it into existence.

[Exiled Texan]

HorseLady- That's my thought. When average local salaries don't support current prices......

[TexasHorseLady]

We're not in a bubble market at the moment. And, yes, historically we've had a nice, slow, steady growth in prices, not the insanity of other places that brings tulips in Holland in the 1600's to mind. However, we are seeing people from those places coming here and thinking that our prices are bargains, rather than realistic. That's something I'd want to keep an eye on, myself.

I do agree that the media can create the very disasters that they keep saying are inevitable. That's the old self-fulfilling prophecy in action, and I dearly wish there were a way to hold them liable for it.

[Rose Red]

Originally Posted by TexasHorseLady

We're not in a bubble market at the moment. And, yes, historically we've had a nice, slow, steady growth in prices, not the insanity of other places that brings tulips in Holland in the 1600's to mind. However, we are seeing people from those places coming here and thinking that our prices are bargains, rather than realistic. That's something I'd want to keep an eye on, myself.

I do agree that the media can create the very disasters that they keep saying are inevitable. That's the old self-fulfilling prophecy in action, and I dearly wish there were a way to hold them liable for it.

Yes - I believe that what you think about is what you bring about.

[llkltk]

A bubble? Not even close. The same house in SW Austin that costs 300K will cost you 425K in the midwest. Our prices are still low next to the rest of the country. Way, way off.

[geoquiz3000]

No bubble is right...

Here’s a NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/15/bu...ss&oref=slogin

Real estate price appreciation and general sales patterns are based on Austin's steadily growing economy and population, and we never went through the huge appreciations of the 2002-2007 period.

I agree if we enter a long-term major recession nationwide the market here will be affected negatively; also, some parts of the market will fair better than others even given the extent of the current slowdown.

[S6Sputnik]

No bubble for sure...it is still cheap here!!!

[OA 5599]

Originally Posted by llkltk

A bubble? Not even close. The same house in SW Austin that costs 300K will cost you 425K in the midwest. Our prices are still low next to the rest of the country. Way, way off.

Chicago maybe...but compared to St. Louis, KC, Tulsa, ect, Austin is as expensive and many cases, more expensive. We rented a 6 bedroom house for $1000/month when I was going to college in Missouri a year ago...granted it was in a small college town and a ways from a population center, but still.